Prediction in Multilevel Logistic Regression

The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

Eventos de vida produtores de estresse e queixas de insônia entre auxiliares de enfermagem de um hospital universitário no Rio de Janeiro: estudo Pró-Saúde

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a associação entre eventos de vida produtores de estresse (EVPE) e queixas de insônia (QI). MÉTODOS: Foram analisados dados seccionais de 695 auxiliares de enfermagem de um hospital universitário, participantes do Estudo Pró-Saúde - coorte de funcionários de uma universidade no Rio de Janeiro. As informações foram obtidas através de um questionário multidimensional e autopreenchido, que avaliou a ocorrência de EVPE nos últimos 12 meses, variáveis socioeconômicas e demográficas e QI. As QI foram analisadas como desfecho politômico (frequente, ocasional, e ausente). Odds ratios brutos e ajustados foram calculados através de regressão logística multinomial. RESULTADOS: A prevalência total de QI foi de 45,8% (16,7% frequentes e 29,1% ocasionais). Após ajuste por sexo, idade, estado civil, renda familiar per capita e regime de trabalho, os EVPE associados com QI frequentes foram: "rompimento de relação amorosa" (OR = 3,32; IC95% 1,90 - 5,78), "ter tido problemas graves de saúde" (OR = 2,82; IC95% 1,73 - 4,58); "dificuldades financeiras graves" (OR = 2,38; IC95% 1,46 - 3,88), e "mudança forçada de moradia" (OR = 1,97; IC95% 1,02 - 3,79). Com relação às QI ocasionais, houve associação apenas com rompimento de relação amorosa (OR = 2,30; IC95% 1,42 - 3,74) e dificuldades financeiras graves (OR = 1,87; IC95% 1,27 - 2,75). CONCLUSÕES: Dada a responsabilidade com vidas humanas que os auxiliares de enfermagem assumem durante seu horário de trabalho, nossos achados podem contribuir para ações mais efetivas, por parte dos serviços de saúde ao trabalhador, para lidar com o estresse nessa categoria

Hepatitis B Infection Is Associated with Asymptomatic Malaria in the Brazilian Amazon

Background: Areas that are endemic for malaria are also highly endemic for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Nevertheless, it is unknown whether HBV infection modifies the clinical presentation of malaria. This study aimed to address this question. Methodology and Findings: An observational study of 636 individuals was performed in Rondonia, western Amazon, Brazil between 2006 and 2007. Active and passive case detections identified Plasmodium infection by field microscopy and nested Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). HBV infections were identified by serology and confirmed by real-time PCR. Epidemiological information and plasma cytokine profiles were studied. The data were analyzed using adjusted multinomial logistic regression. Plasmodium-infected individuals with active HBV infection were more likely to be asymptomatic (OR: 120.13, P < 0.0001), present with lower levels of parasitemia and demonstrate a decreased inflammatory cytokine profile. Nevertheless, co-infected individuals presented higher HBV viremia. Plasmodium parasitemia inversely correlated with plasma HBV DNA levels (r=-0.6; P=0.0003). Conclusion: HBV infection diminishes the intensity of malaria infection in individuals from this endemic area. This effect seems related to cytokine balance and control of inflammatory responses. These findings add important insights to the understanding of the factors affecting the clinical outcomes of malaria in endemic regions.

A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Gambling in Brazil Lifetime prevalences and socio-demographic correlates

Gambling has experienced world-wide growth The current study is the first national survey into household gambling conducted in a developing country The sample was a three-stage probabilistic one designed to cover individuals 14 years old or older of both genders and from all regions of the national territory 325 census sectors were visited including rural areas DSM-IV-based instruments were used to assess problem and pathological gambling individuals were asked to estimate their monthly gambling expenditure The lifetime prevalences were pathological gambling 1 0% and problem gambling 1 3% Maximum gambling expenditure corresponded to 5 4% of the household income for social gamblers 16 9% for problem gamblers and 20 0% for pathological gamblers The male female ratio among adults for pathological gambling was 3 2 1 The data suggest the existence of two subgroups of pathological gamblers one younger (33 9 +/- 4 19) and severe (7 or more DSM-IV criteria) another older (47 8 +/- 6 01) and less severe (5-6 criteria) In a multinomial logistic regression problematic gambling was associated with gender age education employment region of origin and living in metropolitan areas The data suggest that feeling active and socially inserted protects against problematic gambling Individuals who are young male unemployed or not currently pursuing further education may be at special risk for severe pathological gambling (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd All rights reserved

Comparison for three Classification Techniques

In this paper we show the results of a comparison simulation study for three classification techniques: Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), No Metric Discriminant Analysis (NDA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). The measure used to compare the performance of the three techniques was the Error Classification Rate (ECR). We found that MLR and LDA techniques have similar performance and that they are better than DNA when the population multivariate distribution is Normal or Logit-Normal. For the case of log-normal and Sinh(-1)-normal multivariate distributions we found that MLR had the better performance.

Residuals for log-Burr XII regression models in survival analysis

In this paper, we compare three residuals to assess departures from the error assumptions as well as to detect outlying observations in log-Burr XII regression models with censored observations. These residuals can also be used for the log-logistic regression model, which is a special case of the log-Burr XII regression model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and the empirical distribution of each residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to the modified martingale-type residual in log-Burr XII regression models with censored data.

Log-Burr XII regression models with censored data

In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal or log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the Burr XII distribution is proposed for modeling data with a unimodal failure rate function as an alternative to the log-logistic regression model. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis, a Bayesian analysis and a jackknife estimator for the parameters of the proposed model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the log-logistic and log-Burr XII regression models. Besides, we use sensitivity analysis to detect influential or outlying observations, and residual analysis is used to check the assumptions in the model. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-Buff XII regression models. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking patterns related to the prevalence of anterior open bite in primary dentition

OBJECTIVE: Nutritional, immunological and psychological benefts of exclusive breastfeeding for the frst 6 months of life are unequivocally recognized. However, mothers should also be aware of the importance of breastfeeding for promoting adequate oral development. This study evaluated the association between breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking patterns and the prevalence of anterior open bite in primary dentition. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Infant feeding and non-nutritive sucking were investigated in a 3-6 year-old sample of 1,377 children, from São Paulo city, Brazil. Children were grouped according to breastfeeding duration: G1 - non-breastfed, G2 - shorter than 6 months, G3 - interruption between 6 and 12 months, and G4 - longer than 12 months. Three calibrated dentists performed clinical examinations and classifed overbite into 3 categories: normal, anterior open bite and deep bite. Chi-square tests (p<0.05) with odds ratio (OR) calculation were used for intergroup comparisons. The impact of breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking on the prevalence of anterior open bite was analyzed using binary logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence estimates of anterior open bite were: 31.9% (G1), 26.1% (G2), 22.1% (G3), and 6.2% (G4). G1 would have signifcantly more chances of having anterior open bite compared with G4; in the total sample (OR=7.1) and in the subgroup without history of non-nutritive sucking (OR=9.3). Prolonging breastfeeding for 12 months was associated with a 3.7 times lower chance of having anterior open bite. In each year of persistence with non-nutritive sucking habits, the chance of developing this malocclusion increased in 2.38 times. CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking durations demonstrated opposite effects on the prediction of anterior open bite. Non-breastfed children presented signifcantly greater chances of having anterior open bite compared with those who were breastfed for periods longer than 12 months, demonstrating the benefcial infuence of breastfeeding on dental occlusion.

Self-perception and malocclusion and their relation to oral appearance and function

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between malocclusion and self-perception of oral appearance/function, in 12/15-year-old Brazilian adolescents. The cluster sample consisted of 717 teenagers attending 24 urban public (n=611) and 5 rural public (n=107) schools in Maringá/PR. Malocclusion was measured using the Dental Aesthetic Index (DAI), in accordance with WHO recommendations. A parental questionnaire was applied to collect information on esthetic perception level and oral variables related to oral health. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed. Multiple logistic regression confirmed that for 12-year-old, missing teeth (OR=2.865) and presence of openbite (open occlusal relationship) (OR=2.865) were risk indicators for speech capability. With regard to 15-year-old, presence of mandibular overjet (horizontal overlap) (OR=4.016) was a risk indicator for speech capability and molar relationship (OR=1.661) was a risk indicator for chewing capability. The impact of malocclusion on adolescents' life was confirmed in this study. Speech and chewing capability were associated with orthodontic deviations, which should be taken into consideration in oral health planning, to identify risk groups and improve community health services.

Diagnostic and clinical factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain

A retrospective survey was designed to identify diagnostic subgroups and clinical factors associated with odontogenic pain and discomfort in dental urgency patients. A consecutive sample of 1,765 patients seeking treatment for dental pain at the Urgency Service of the Dental School of the Federal University of Goiás, Brazil, was selected. Inclusion criteria were pulpal or periapical pain that occurred before dental treatment (minimum 6 months after the last dental appointment), and the exclusion criteria were teeth with odontogenic developmental anomalies and missing information or incomplete records. Clinical and radiographic examinations were performed to assess clinical presentation of pain complaints including origin, duration, frequency and location of pain, palpation, percussion and vitality tests, radiographic features, endodontic diagnosis and characteristics of teeth. Chi-square test and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze association between pulpal and periapical pain and independent variables. The most frequent endodontic diagnosis of pulpal pain were symptomatic pulpitis (28.3%) and hyperreactive pulpalgia (14.4%), and the most frequent periapical pain was symptomatic apical periodontitis of infectious origin (26.4%). Regression analysis revealed that closed pulp chamber and caries were highly associated with pulpal pain and, conversely, open pulp chamber was associated with periapical pain (p<0.001). Endodontic diagnosis and local factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain suggest that the important clinical factor of pulpal pain was closed pulp chamber and caries, and of periapical pain was open pulp chamber.

Hábitos de sucção não nutritiva em crianças pré-escolares

OBJETIVO: Verificar a prevalência e os fatores associados aos hábitos de sucção não nutritiva em crianças pré-escolares matriculadas em creches e pré-escolas de Natal (RN). MÉTODOS: Foi conduzido um estudo transversal com 1.190 crianças de ambos os sexos na faixa etária de 3 a 5 anos, matriculadas em creches e pré-escolas de Natal. Não foram incluídas no estudo crianças com fendas labiopalatinas, desordens temporomandibulares, ou aquelas submetidas a tratamento ortodôntico e/ou ortopédico; também não fizeram parte da amostra instituições de ensino especializadas em crianças portadoras de deficiência. Utilizou-se um questionário estruturado, respondido pelos pais ou responsável, com dados sobre a instituição, sexo e idade das crianças, escolaridade dos pais e questões relacionadas aos hábitos. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do teste do qui-quadrado e a regressão logística. RESULTADOS: Obteve-se prevalência de 40,2% de hábitos de sucção não nutritiva, dos quais 27,7% eram de sucção de chupeta e 12,5% de dedo. Os hábitos de sucção apresentaram maior percentual para o sexo feminino, destacando-se a sucção de dedo (p = 0,02); em crianças com menos idade destacou-se a sucção de chupeta (p = 0,0006). Observou-se maior frequência de sucção de chupeta e de dedo, respectivamente, para o nível superior (p < 0,05) e fundamental (p < 0,05) de escolaridade dos pais. A regressão logística demonstrou que a menor idade dos indivíduos (p = 0,033) e o nível médio de escolaridade dos pais (p = 0,035) são fatores independentes para a persistência dos hábitos. CONCLUSÃO: Verificou-se uma alta prevalência de realização dos hábitos de sucção não nutritiva, apresentando como fatores de destaque a menor idade das crianças e o nível médio de escolaridade dos pais.

Bottle feeding, increased overjet and Class 2 primary canine relationship: is there any association?

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between bottle feeding and prevalence rates of increased overjet and Class 2 primary canine relationship. The sample consisted of 911 children (461 boys, 450 girls) aged 3 (13.9%), 4 (40.8%), 5 (34%) and 6 (11.3%) years, with complete primary dentition. Information about nutritive and nonnutritive (pacifier and/or digit) sucking habits was collected through questionnaires. Three calibrated dentists (κ: 0.9-1.0 and Rs > 0.90) performed the clinical assessments. The children were divided into four groups: G1 - not bottle-fed; G2 - exclusively bottle-fed; G3 - breast- and bottle-fed, bottle feeding ceased before 3 years of age; and G4 - breast- and bottle-fed, bottle feeding ceased between 3 and 4 years of age. Associations between nutritive and nonnutritive sucking behaviors and the malocclusions studied were analyzed by multiple binary logistic regression (α= 0.05). The frequencies of increased overjet were: 25.3% (G1), 38.8% (G2), 39.2% (G3) and 47.8% (G4). The percentages of Class 2 canine relationship were: 27.9% (G1), 48.8% (G2), 43.4% (G3) and 43% (G4). No significant effect of bottle feeding was found. The chances of diagnosing increased overjet (O.R. = 4.42, p < 0.001) and Class 2 canine relationship (O.R. = 4.02, p < 0.001) were greater for children with pacifier and/or digit-sucking habits, compared to those without a history of nonnutritive sucking behavior. It may be suggested that bottle feeding alone is not directly associated with higher prevalence rates of increased overjet and Class 2 canine relationship in the primary dentition.

Wives of pathological gamblers: personality traits, depressive symptoms and social adjustment

Objective: Wives of pathological gamblers tend to endure long marriages despite financial and emotional burden. Difficulties in social adjustment, personality psychopathology, and comorbidity with psychiatric disorders are pointed as reasons for remaining on such overwhelming relationships. The goal was to examine the social adjustment, personality and negative emotionality of wives of pathological gamblers. Method: The sample consisted of 25 wives of pathological gamblers, mean age 40.6, SD = 9.1 from a Gambling Outpatient Unit and at GAM-ANON, and 25 wives of non-gamblers, mean age 40.8, SD = 9.1, who answered advertisements placed at the Universidade de São Paulo hospital and medical school complex. They were selected in order to approximately match demographic characteristics of the wives of pathological gamblers. Subjects were assessed by the Social Adjustment Scale, Temperament and Character Inventory, Beck Depression Inventory and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Results: Three variables remained in the final Multiple Logistic Regression model, wives of pathological gamblers presented greater dissatisfaction with their marital bond, and higher scores on Reward Dependence and Persistence temperament factors. Both, Wives of pathological gamblers and wives of non-gamblers presented well-structured character factors excluding personality disorders. Conclusion: This personality profile may explain wives of pathological gamblers emotional resilience and their marriage longevity. Co-dependence and other labels previously used to describe them may work as a double edged sword, legitimating wives of pathological gamblers problems, while stigmatizing them as inapt and needy.

Fatores preditivos do maior número de estádios na cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs para o tratamento do carcinoma espinocelular da cabeça

FUNDAMENTOS: Os carcinomas espinocelulares da pele da cabeça têm como opção terapêutica mais segura a cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs, que apresenta os menores índices de recidiva e a máxima preservação tecidual. Características dos carcinomas espinocelulares podem estar relacionadas a maior número de estádios cirúrgicos. OBJETIVO: Definir características dos carcinomas espinocelulares que sejam preditoras de maior número de estádios na cirurgia de Mohs. MÉTODOS: Análise retrospectiva de 51 carcinomas espinocelulares da cabeça tratados pela cirurgia de Mohs para determinar fatores de risco de maior número de estádios. Foram analisados limites clínicos, morfologia, recidiva, histologia e tamanho, relacionando-os ao número de estádios cirúrgicos. A análise estatística foi realizada pelo teste exato de Fisher e regressão logística multivariada. RESULTADOS: Os carcinomas recidivados tiveram tendência a maior número de estádios (p=0,081). Os tumores com limites imprecisos apresentaram três vezes mais possibilidades de maior número de fases na análise da razão de chances. Esse achado foi compatível com dados da literatura, apesar de não ter sido estatisticamente significante. CONCLUSÃO: Características pré-operatórias dos carcinomas espinocelulares, como recidiva e limites imprecisos, apesar de não preditivas, indicaram tendência a maior número de estádios na cirurgia micrográfica de Mohs.