Formulation of a tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme

This work describes the tropical town energy budget (t-TEB) scheme addressed to simulate the diurnal occurrence of the urban heat island (UHI) as observed in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ; -22A degrees S; -44A degrees W) in Brazil. Reasoning about the tropical urban climate have guided the scheme implementation, starting from the original equations from Masson (Bound-Lay Meteorol 94:357-397, 2000). The modifications include (a) local scaling approaches for obtaining flux-gradient relationships in the roughness sub-layer, (b) the Monin-Obukhov similarity framework in the inertial sub-layer, (c) increasing aerodynamic conductance toward more unstable conditions, and (d) a modified urban subsurface drainage system to transfer the intercepted rainwater by roofs to the roads. Simulations along 2007 for the MARJ are obtained and compared with the climatology. The t-TEB simulation is consistent with the observations, suggesting that the timing and dynamics of the UHI in tropical cities could vary significantly from the familiar patterns observed in mid-latitude cities-with the peak heat island intensity occurring in the morning than at night. The simulations are suggesting that the thermal phase shift of this tropical diurnal UHI is a response of the surface energy budget to the large amount of solar radiation, intense evapotranspiration, and thermal response of the vegetated surfaces over a very humid soil layer.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.