Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Statistical models of mixtures with a biaxial nematic phase

We consider a simple Maier-Saupe statistical model with the inclusion of disorder degrees of freedom to mimic the phase diagram of a mixture of rodlike and disklike molecules. A quenched distribution of shapes leads to a phase diagram with two uniaxial and a biaxial nematic structure. A thermalized distribution, however, which is more adequate to liquid mixtures, precludes the stability of this biaxial phase. We then use a two-temperature formalism, and assume a separation of relaxation times, to show that a partial degree of annealing is already sufficient to stabilize a biaxial nematic structure.

Family history of cancer: Pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR = 1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR = 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR = 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR = 1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC. (C) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc,

Crotamine toxicity and efficacy in mouse models of melanoma

Objectives: Selective anticancer cell activity for both cell-penetrating and cationic antimicrobial peptides has previously been reported. As crotamine possesses activities similar to both of these, this study investigates crotamine`s anticancer toxicity in vitro and in vivo. Research design and methods: In vitro cancer cell viability was evaluated after treatment with 1 and 5 mu g/ml of crotamine. In vivo crotamine cytotoxic effects in C57Bl/6J mice bearing B16-F10 primary cutaneous melanoma were tested, with two groups each containing 35 mice. The crotamine-treated group received 1 mu g/day of crotamine per animal, subcutaneously which was well tolerated; the untreated group received a placebo. Results: Crotamine at 5 mu g/ml was lethal to B16-F10, Mia PaCa-2 and SK-Mel-28 cells and inoffensive to normal cells. In vivo crotamine treatment over 21 days significantly delayed tumor implantation, inhibited tumor growth and prolonged the lifespan of the mice. Mice in the crotamine-treated group survived at significantly higher rates (n = 30/35) than those in the untreated group (n = 7/35) (significance calculated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator). The average tumor weight in the untreated group was 4.60 g but was only about 0.27 g in the crotamine-treated mice, if detectable. Conclusions: These data warrant further exploration of crotamine as a tumor inhibition compound.

The constrained compartmentalized knapsack problem: mathematical models and solution methods

The constrained compartmentalized knapsack problem can be seen as an extension of the constrained knapsack problem. However, the items are grouped into different classes so that the overall knapsack has to be divided into compartments, and each compartment is loaded with items from the same class. Moreover, building a compartment incurs a fixed cost and a fixed loss of the capacity in the original knapsack, and the compartments are lower and upper bounded. The objective is to maximize the total value of the items loaded in the overall knapsack minus the cost of the compartments. This problem has been formulated as an integer non-linear program, and in this paper, we reformulate the non-linear model as an integer linear master problem with a large number of variables. Some heuristics based on the solution of the restricted master problem are investigated. A new and more compact integer linear model is also presented, which can be solved by a branch-and-bound commercial solver that found most of the optimal solutions for the constrained compartmentalized knapsack problem. On the other hand, heuristics provide good solutions with low computational effort. (C) 2011 Elsevier BM. All rights reserved.

Approach to Equilibrium for a Class of Random Quantum Models of Infinite Range

We consider random generalizations of a quantum model of infinite range introduced by Emch and Radin. The generalizations allow a neat extension from the class l (1) of absolutely summable lattice potentials to the optimal class l (2) of square summable potentials first considered by Khanin and Sinai and generalised by van Enter and van Hemmen. The approach to equilibrium in the case of a Gaussian distribution is proved to be faster than for a Bernoulli distribution for both short-range and long-range lattice potentials. While exponential decay to equilibrium is excluded in the nonrandom l (1) case, it is proved to occur for both short and long range potentials for Gaussian distributions, and for potentials of class l (2) in the Bernoulli case. Open problems are discussed.

Three-dimensional description and mathematical characterization of the parasellar internal carotid artery in human infants

Inside the `cavernous sinus` or `parasellar region` the human internal carotid artery takes the shape of a siphon that is twisted and torqued in three dimensions and surrounded by a network of veins. The parasellar section of the internal carotid artery is of broad biological and medical interest, as its peculiar shape is associated with temperature regulation in the brain and correlated with the occurrence of vascular pathologies. The present study aims to provide anatomical descriptions and objective mathematical characterizations of the shape of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery in human infants and its modifications during ontogeny. Three-dimensional (3D) computer models of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery of infants were generated with a state-of-the-art 3D reconstruction method and analysed using both traditional morphometric methods and novel mathematical algorithms. We show that four constant, demarcated bends can be described along the infant parasellar section of the internal carotid artery, and we provide measurements of their angles. We further provide calculations of the curvature and torsion energy, and the total complexity of the 3D skeleton of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery, and compare the complexity of this in infants and adults. Finally, we examine the relationship between shape parameters of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery in infants, and the occurrence of intima cushions, and evaluate the reliability of subjective angle measurements for characterizing the complexity of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery in infants. The results can serve as objective reference data for comparative studies and for medical imaging diagnostics. They also form the basis for a new hypothesis that explains the mechanisms responsible for the ontogenetic transformation in the shape of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery.

Quantitative structure-activity studies on a series of migrastatin analogs as inhibitors of cancer cell metastasis

Migrastatin, a macrolide natural product, and its structurally related analogs are potent inhibitors of cancer cell metastasis, invasion and migration. In the present work, a specialized fragment-based method was employed to develop QSAR models for a series of migrastatin and isomigrastatin analogs. Significant correlation coefficients were obtained (best model, q(2) = 0.76 and r(2) = 0.91) indicating that the QSAR models possess high internal consistency. The best model was then used to predict the potency of an external test set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results (R(2) (pred) = 0.85). The final model and the corresponding contribution maps, combined with molecular modeling studies, provided important insights into the key structural features for the anticancer activity of this family of synthetic compounds based on natural products.

Women's satisfaction with childbirth's experience in different models of care: a descriptive study

Com o objetivo de comparar a satisfação das mulheres com a experiência do parto em três modelos assistenciais, foi realizada pesquisa descritiva, com abordagem quantitativa, em dois hospitais públicos de São Paulo, um promovendo o modelo "Típico" e o outro com um centro de parto intra-hospitalar (modelo "CPNIH") e um peri-hospitalar (modelo "CPNPH"). A amostra foi constituída por 90 puérperas, 30 de cada modelo. A comparação entre os resultados referentes à satisfação das mulheres com o atendimento prestado pelos profissionais de saúde, com a qualidade da assistência e os motivos de satisfação e insatisfação, com a indicação ou recomendação dos serviços recebidos, com a sensação de segurança no processo e com as sugestões de melhorias, mostrou que o modelo CPHPH foi o melhor avaliado, vindo em seguida o CPNIH e por último o Típico. Conclui-se que o modelo peri-hospitalar de assistência ao parto deveria receber maior apoio do SUS, por se constituir em serviço em que as mulheres se mostram satisfeitas com a atenção recebida

Genomics and proteomics approaches to the study of cancer-stroma interactions

Background: The development and progression of cancer depend on its genetic characteristics as well as on the interactions with its microenvironment. Understanding these interactions may contribute to diagnostic and prognostic evaluations and to the development of new cancer therapies. Aiming to investigate potential mechanisms by which the tumor microenvironment might contribute to a cancer phenotype, we evaluated soluble paracrine factors produced by stromal and neoplastic cells which may influence proliferation and gene and protein expression. Methods: The study was carried out on the epithelial cancer cell line (Hep-2) and fibroblasts isolated from a primary oral cancer. We combined a conditioned-medium technique with subtraction hybridization approach, quantitative PCR and proteomics, in order to evaluate gene and protein expression influenced by soluble paracrine factors produced by stromal and neoplastic cells. Results: We observed that conditioned medium from fibroblast cultures (FCM) inhibited proliferation and induced apoptosis in Hep-2 cells. In neoplastic cells, 41 genes and 5 proteins exhibited changes in expression levels in response to FCM and, in fibroblasts, 17 genes and 2 proteins showed down-regulation in response to conditioned medium from Hep-2 cells (HCM). Nine genes were selected and the expression results of 6 down-regulated genes (ARID4A, CALR, GNB2L1, RNF10, SQSTM1, USP9X) were validated by real time PCR. Conclusions: A significant and common denominator in the results was the potential induction of signaling changes associated with immune or inflammatory response in the absence of a specific protein.

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Self-bound models of compact stars and recent mass-radius measurements

The exact composition of a specific class of compact stars, historically referred to as ""neutron stars,'' is still quite unknown. Possibilities ranging from hadronic to quark degrees of freedom, including self-bound versions of the latter, have been proposed. We specifically address the suitability of strange star models (including pairing interactions) in this work, in the light of new measurements available for four compact stars. The analysis shows that these data might be explained by such an exotic equation of state, actually selecting a small window in parameter space, but still new precise measurements and also further theoretical developments are needed to settle the subject.

Impact of cancer-related symptom synergisms on health-related quality of life and performance status

To identify the impact of multiple symptoms and their co-occurrence on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) dimensions and performance status (PS), 115 outpatients with cancer, who were not receiving active cancer treatment and were recruited from, a university hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil completed the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-C30, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Brief Pain Inventory. Karnofsky Performance Status scores also were completed. Application of TwoStep Cluster analysis resulted in two distinct patient subgroups based on 113 patient experiences with pain, depression, fatigue, insomnia, constipation, lack of appetite, dyspnea, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. One group had multiple and severe symptom subgroup and another had Less symptoms and with lower severity. Multiple and severe symptoms had worse PS, role functioning, and physical, emotional, cognitive, social, and overall HRQOL. Multiple and severe symptom subgroup was also six times as likely as lower severity to have poor role functioning;five times more likely to have poor emotional;four times more likely to have poor PS, physical, and overall HRQOL, and three times as likely to have poor cognitive and social HRQOL, independent of gender, age, level of education, and economic condition. Classification and Regression Tree analyses were undertaken to identify which co-occurring symptoms would best determine reduction in HRQOL and PS. Pain and fatigue were identified as indicators of reduction on physical HRQOL and PS. Fatigue and insomnia were associated with reduction in cognitive; depression and pain in social; and fatigue and constipation in role functioning. Only depression was associated with reduction in overall HRQOL. These data demonstrate that there is a synergic effect among distinct cancer symptoms that result in reduction in HRQOL dimensions and PS.

A mathematical view of biological complexity

This essay is a trial on giving some mathematical ideas about the concept of biological complexity, trying to explore four different attributes considered to be essential to characterize a complex system in a biological context: decomposition, heterogeneous assembly, self-organization, and adequacy. It is a theoretical and speculative approach, opening some possibilities to further numerical and experimental work, illustrated by references to several researches that applied the concepts presented here. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial portability of numerical models of leaf wetness duration based on empirical approaches

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.