Import substitution and economic growth

Despite Latin America`s dismal performance between the 1950s and 1980s, the region experienced strong capital deepening. We suggest that these facts can be explained as a consequence of the restrictive trade regime adopted at that time. Our framework is based on a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model, with scale economies in the capital-intensive sector. Initially, the economy is open and produces only the labor-intensive good. The trade regime is modeled as a move to a closed economy. The model produces results consistent with the Latin American experience. Specifically, a Sufficiently small Country experiences no long-run income growth, but an increase in capital. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental study of a Tollmien-Schlichting wave interacting with a shallow 3D roughness element

The paper is devoted to an experimental study of the effect of a shallow 3D roughness element on the evolution of a 2D Tollmien-Schlichting wave in a Blasius boundary layer. The experiments were carried out under controlled disturbance conditions on an airfoil section which could provide a long run with zero pressure gradient flow. A pneumatically driven slit source was used to introduce the Tollmien-Schilichting wave upstream of the lower branch of the neutral stability curve. A few wavelengths downstream, the T-S wave interacts with a cylindrical roughness element. The height of the roughness was slowly oscillating in time, which allows a continuous measurement of the T-S wave response downstream the roughness. The oscillation frequency was approximately 1500 times lower than the frequency of the studied Tollmien-Schlichting wave and therefore, behaved as a steady roughness with respect to the T-S wave. Hot wire anemometry was used to measure wall normal profiles and spanwise scans close to the maximum of the eigenfunction of the T-S wave. The oscillation of the roughness and the synchronization of all-equipments permitted the use of ensemble average techniques. Two different amplitudes of T-S waves with a non-dimensional frequency of F120E-06 were studied. They show a strong amplification of the disturbances in a small spanwise wave number range. The analysis of the wall normal T-S profiles suggests the growth of oblique modes.

THE VANISHING DISCOUNT APPROACH FOR THE AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This work is concerned with the existence of an optimal control strategy for the long-run average continuous control problem of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). In Costa and Dufour (2008), sufficient conditions were derived to ensure the existence of an optimal control by using the vanishing discount approach. These conditions were mainly expressed in terms of the relative difference of the alpha-discount value functions. The main goal of this paper is to derive tractable conditions directly related to the primitive data of the PDMP to ensure the existence of an optimal control. The present work can be seen as a continuation of the results derived in Costa and Dufour (2008). Our main assumptions are written in terms of some integro-differential inequalities related to the so-called expected growth condition, and geometric convergence of the post-jump location kernel associated to the PDMP. An example based on the capacity expansion problem is presented, illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Growth Hormone Receptor Exon 3 Isoforms and Their Implication in Growth Disorders and Treatment

Human recombinant growth hormone (hGH) has been used to treat short stature in several different conditions, but considerable inter-individual variation in short- and long-term growth response exists. Pharmacogenomics can provide important insights into hGH therapy. The GH receptor (GHR) is the first key molecule mediating GH action. In the past 3 years, a common GHR polymorphism reflecting the presence (GHRf1) or absence (GHRd3) of exon 3 has been under intensive investigation regarding its influence on the response to hGH therapy. Studies that evaluated response to GH treatment determined by these two GHR isoforms in children with GH deficiency, girls with Turner syndrome, children born small for gestational age and patients with acromegaly showed that patients carrying the GHRd3 allele demonstrated a greater GH sensitivity than patients homozygous for the GHRf1 allele. Other studies presented contradictory data, however, which may be caused by confounding factors such as small sample sizes and differences in experimental design. This GHR exon 3 genotype is the first identified genetic factor found to modulate the individual response to GH therapy. This article reviews the historical aspects and pharmacogenetic studies published to date in relation to this GHR polymorphism. The analyses of present and future validation studies may define the use of this and other polymorphisms in clinical practice, moving from pharmacogenetics to routine application and allowing individualization of hGH doses to optimize final outcome. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Growth after ventricular septal defect repair: does defect size matter? A 10-year experience

Aim: To evaluate whether the ventricular septal defect (VSD) size, along with the degree of preoperative growth impairment and age at repair, may influence postoperative growth, and if VSD size can be useful to identify children at risk for preoperative failure to thrive. Methods: Sixty-eight children submitted to VSD repair in a Brazilian tertiary-care institution were evaluated. Weight and height measurements were converted to Z-scores. Ventricular septal defect size was normalized by dividing it by the aortic root diameter (VSD/Ao ratio). Results: Twenty-six patients (38%) had significantly low weight-for-height, 10 patients (15%) had significantly low height-for-age and 13 patients (19%) had both conditions at repair. Catch-up growth occurred in 82% of patients for weight-for-age, in 75% of patients for height-for-age and in 89% of patients for weight-for-height. Weight-for-height Z-scores at surgery were significantly lower in patients who underwent repair before 9 months of age. The VSD/Ao ratio did not associate with any other data. On multivariate analysis, weight-for-age Z-scores and age at surgery were independent predictors of long-term weight and height respectively. Conclusion: The VSD/Ao ratio was not a good predictor of preoperative failure to thrive. Most patients had preoperative growth impairment and presented catch-up growth after repair. Preoperative growth status and age at surgery influenced long-term growth.

A Longitudinal Three-Center Study of Dental Arch Relationship in Patients With Bilateral Cleft Lip and Palate

Objective: To compare and evaluate longitudinally the dental arch relationships from 4.5 to 13.5 years of age with the Bauru-BCLP Yardstick in a large sample of patients with bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP). Design: Retrospective longitudinal intercenter outcome study. Patients: Dental casts of 204 consecutive patients with complete BCLP were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years of age. All models were identified only by random identification numbers. Setting: Three cleft palate centers with different treatment protocols. Main Outcome Measures: Dental arch relationships were categorized with the Bauru-BCLP yardstick. Increments for each interval (from 6 to 9 years, 6 to 12 years, and 9 to 12 years) were analyzed by logistic and linear regression models. Results: There were no significant differences in outcome measures between the centers at age 12 or at age 9. At age 6, center B showed significantly better results (p = .027), but this difference diminished as the yardstick score for this group increased over time (linear regression analysis), the difference with the reference category (center C, boys) for the intervals 6 to 12 and 9 to 12 years being 10.4% (p = .041) and 12.9% (p = .009), respectively. Conclusions: Despite different treatment protocols, dental arch relationships in the three centers were comparable in final scores at age 9 and 12 years. Delaying hard palate closure and employing infant orthopedics did not appear to be advantageous in the long run. Premaxillary osteotomy employed in center B appeared to be associated with less favorable development of the dental arch relationship between 9 and 12 years.

AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure of the PDMP, and the running and boundary costs are assumed to be positive but not necessarily bounded. Our first main result is to obtain an optimality equation for the long run average cost in terms of a discrete-time optimality equation related to the embedded Markov chain given by the postjump location of the PDMP. Our second main result guarantees the existence of a feedback measurable selector for the discrete-time optimality equation by establishing a connection between this equation and an integro-differential equation. Our final main result is to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution for a discrete-time optimality inequality and an ordinary optimal feedback control for the long run average cost using the so-called vanishing discount approach. Two examples are presented illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

The B0.5IVe CoRoT target HD 49330 I. Photometric analysis from CoRoT data

Context. Be stars undergo outbursts producing a circumstellar disk from the ejected material. The beating of non-radial pulsations has been put forward as a possible mechanism of ejection. Aims. We analyze the pulsational behavior of the early B0.5IVe star HD 49330 observed during the first CoRoT long run towards the Galactical anticenter (LRA1). This Be star is located close to the lower edge of the beta Cephei instability strip in the HR diagram and showed a 0.03 mag outburst during the CoRoT observations. It is thus an ideal case for testing the aforementioned hypothesis. Methods. We analyze the CoRoT light curve of HD 49330 using Fourier methods and non-linear least square fitting. Results. In this star, we find pulsation modes typical of beta Cep stars (p modes) and SPB stars (g modes) with amplitude variations along the run directly correlated with the outburst. These results provide new clues about the origin of the Be phenomenon as well as strong constraints on the seismic modelling of Be stars.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

The Policy Iteration Algorithm for Average Continuous Control of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

The main goal of this paper is to apply the so-called policy iteration algorithm (PIA) for the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP`s) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. In order to do that we first derive some important properties for a pseudo-Poisson equation associated to the problem. In the sequence it is shown that the convergence of the PIA to a solution satisfying the optimality equation holds under some classical hypotheses and that this optimal solution yields to an optimal control strategy for the average control problem for the continuous-time PDMP in a feedback form.

Generalized Coupled Algebraic Riccati Equations for Discrete-time Markov Jump with Multiplicative Noise Systems

In this paper we consider the existence of the maximal and mean square stabilizing solutions for a set of generalized coupled algebraic Riccati equations (GCARE for short) associated to the infinite-horizon stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time Markov jump with multiplicative noise linear systems. The weighting matrices of the state and control for the quadratic part are allowed to be indefinite. We present a sufficient condition, based only on some positive semi-definite and kernel restrictions on some matrices, under which there exists the maximal solution and a necessary and sufficient condition under which there exists the mean square stabilizing solution fir the GCARE. We also present a solution for the discounted and long run average cost problems when the performance criterion is assumed be composed by a linear combination of an indefinite quadratic part and a linear part in the state and control variables. The paper is concluded with a numerical example for pension fund with regime switching.

What loggers leave behind: Impacts on big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) commercial populations and potential for post-logging recovery in the Brazilian Amazon

The sustainability of current harvest practices for high-value Meliaceae can be assessed by quantifying logging intensity and projecting growth and survival by post-logging populations over anticipated intervals between harvests. From 100%-area inventories of big-leaf mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) covering 204 ha or more at eight logged and unlogged forest sites across southern Brazilian Amazonia, we report generally higher landscape-scale densities and smaller population-level mean diameters in eastern forests compared to western forests, where most commercial stocks survive. Density of trees >= 20 cm diameter varied by two orders of magnitude and peaked at 1.17 ha(-1). Size class frequency distributions appeared unimodal at two high-density sites, but were essentially arnodal or flat elsewhere; diameter increment patterns indicate that populations were multi- or all-aged. At two high-density sites, conventional logging removed 93-95% of commercial trees (>= 45 cm diameter at the time of logging), illegally eliminated 31-47% of sub-merchantable trees, and targeted trees as small as 20 cm diameter. Projected recovery by commercial stems during 30 years after conventional logging represented 9.9-37.5% of initial densities and was highly dependent on initial logging intensity and size class frequency distributions of commercial trees. We simulated post-logging recovery over the same period at all sites according to the 2003 regulatory framework for mahogany in Brazil, which raised the minimum diameter cutting limit to 60 cm and requires retention during the first harvest of 20% of commercial-sized trees. Recovery during 30 years ranged from approximately 0 to 31% over 20% retention densities at seven of eight sites. At only one site where sub-merchantable trees dominated the population did the simulated density of harvestable stems after 30 years exceed initial commercial densities. These results indicate that 80% harvest intensity will not be sustainable over multiple cutting cycles for most populations without silvicultural interventions ensuring establishment and long-term growth of artificial regeneration to augment depleted natural stocks, including repeated tending of outplanted seedlings. Without improved harvest protocols for mahogany in Brazil as explored in this paper, future commercial supplies of this species as well as other high-value tropical timbers are endangered. Rapid changes in the timber industry and land-use in the Amazon are also significant challenges to sustainable management of mahogany. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneity, saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in Latin America

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of national saving-investment relationship in order to determine the degree of capital mobility in 12 Latin American countries. The analytically relevant correlation is the short-term one, defined as that between changes in saving and investment. Of special interest is the speed at which variables return to the long run equilibrium relationship, which is interpreted as being negatively related to the degree of capital mobility. The long run correlation, in turn, captures the coefficient implied by the solvency constraint. We find that heterogeneity and cross-section dependence completely change the estimation of the long run coefficient. Besides we obtain a more precise short run coefficient estimate compared to the existent estimates in the literature. There is evidence of an intermediate degree of capital mobility, and the coefficients are extremely stable over time.

Flex cars and the alcohol price

We build a model that incorporates the effect of the innovative ""flex"" car, an automobile that is able to run with either gasoline or alcohol, on the dynamics of fuel prices in Brazil. Our model shows that differences regarding fuel prices will now depend on the proportions of alcohol, gasoline and flex cars in the total stock. Conversely, the demand for each type of car will also depend on the expected future prices of alcohol and gasoline (in addition to the car prices). The model reflects our findings that energy prices are tied in the long run and that causality runs stronger from gasoline to alcohol. The estimated error correction parameter is stable, implying that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium remains unchanged. The latter result is probably due to a still small fraction of flex cars in the total stock (approx. 5%), despite the fact that its sales nearly reached 100% in 2006. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.