Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

A quantitative coronary angiography-matched comparison between a prospective randomised multicentre cutting balloon angioplasty and bare metal stent trial (REDUCE III) and the Rapamycin-Eluting Stent Evaluation At Rotterdam Cardiology Hospital (RESEARCH) study

Aims: There remains significant concern about the long-term safety of drug-eluting stents (DES). However, bare metal stents (BMS) have been used safely for over two decades. There is therefore a pressing need to explore alternative strategies for reducing restenosis with BMS. This study was designed to examine whether IVUS-guided cutting balloon angioplasty (CBA) with BMS could convey similar restenosis rates to DES. Methods and results: In the randomised REstenosis reDUction by Cutting balloon angioplasty Evaluation (REDUCE III) study, 521 patients were divided into four groups based on device and IVUS use before BMS (IVUS-CBA-BMS: 137 patients; Angio-CBA-BMS: 123; IVUS-BA-BMS: 142; and Angio-BA-BMS: 119). At follow-up, the IVUS-CBA-BMS group had a significantly lower restenosis rate (6.6%) than the other groups (p=0.016). We performed a quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) based matched comparison between an IVUS-guided CBA-BMS strategy (REDUCE III) and a DES strategy (Rapamycin-Eluting-Stent Evaluation At Rotterdam Cardiology. Hospital, the RESEARCH study). We matched the presence of diabetes, vessel size, and lesion severity by QCA. Restenosis (>50% diameter stenosis at follow-up) and target vessel revascularisation (TVR) were examined. QCA-matched comparison resulted in 120-paired lesions. While acute gain was significantly greater in IVUS-CBA-BMS than DES (1.65 +/- 0.41 mm vs. 1.28 +/- 0.57 mm, p=0.001), late loss was significantly less with DES than with IVUS-CBA-BMS (0.03 +/- 0.42 mm vs. 0.80 +/- 0.47 mm, p=0.001). However, no difference was found in restenosis rates (IVUS-CBA-BMS: 6.6% vs. DES: 5.0%, p=0.582) and TVR (6.6% and 6.6%, respectively). Conclusions: An IVUS-guided CBA-BMS strategy yielded restenosis rates similar to those achieved by DES and provided an effective alternative to the use of DES.

Expression of TLR-4 and -2 in peripheral mononuclear cells in renal transplant patients with TLR-4 gene polymorphism

Introduction: TLR-4 has also been identified as a receptor for endogenous alarmins, which are increased post transplantation. TLR-4 has also been associated with a polymorphism that could impact graft outcome. Objective: To assess the expression of TLR-4 in kidney transplant patients carrying or not a polymorphism. Methods: TLR-4 polymorphism (A299G/T399I) was studied in 200 renal transplant patients. Healthy volunteers were also enrolled as control group. The polymorphism analysis was performed using restriction enzymes technique (RFLP). Functionality of TLR-4 polymorphism was assessed in samples from controls by quantification of TNF-alpha after LPS stimulus. TLR-4 and -2 expressions were also analyzed by flow cytometry. Results: TLR-4 polymorphism was present in 8.5% of renal transplant patients. This polymorphism was associated with impairment in TNF-alpha secretion. In general, in renal transplant patients, TLR-4 expression in monocytes and in neutrophils was lower than in health volunteers. TLR-2 and TLR-4 expressions in healthy volunteers with A299G/T399I TLR-4 polymorphism was higher than in wild-type genotype healthy volunteers (p<0.01 and p<0.05, respectively), and also higher than A299G/T399I TLR-4 polymorphism renal transplant patients (p<0.05). TLR-2 expression on neutrophils in wild-type genotype renal transplant patients was higher compared to wild-type genotype healthy volunteers, and was also higher in relation to A299G/T399I kidney transplanted patients (p<0.01). Conclusion: Stable renal transplant patients with TLR-4 polymorphism have a lower expression of TLR-4 and TLR-2 receptors in peripheral mononuclear cells, which ultimately indicate a less responsiveness for alarmins. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical correlations of human cytomegalovirus strains and viral load in kidney transplant recipients

Little is known about clinical differences associated with cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection by distinct strains in renal transplant patients. Different clinical pictures may be associated with specific viral genotypes. viral load, as well as host factors. The objective of this study was to identify CMV strains to determine viral load (antigenemia), and their correlation with clinical data in renal transplant recipients. Seventy-one patients were enrolled, comprising 91 samples. After selection, polymorphonuclear cells were used to amplify and sequence the gB region of CMV DNA. The sequences were analyzed to ascertain the frequency of different genotypes. Additionally, the results of this Study showed that the gB coding gene presents a great variability, revealing a variety of patterns: classical gB (1.4%), gB1V (46.4%), classical gB2 (35.2%), gB2V (2.8%), gB3 (1.4%), classical gB4 (4.9%) and gB4V (4.9%). The mean viral load in kidney transplant patient was 75.1 positive cells (1-1000). A higher viral load was observed in patients with genotype 4 infection. Statistically significant differences were detected between gB1 and gB4 (p=0.010), and between gB2 and gB4 (p=0.021). The average numbers of positive cells in relation to clinical presentation were: 34.5 in asymptomatic, 49.5 in CMV associated syndrome and 120.7 in patients with invasive disease (p=0.048). As a group, gB1 was the most frequent strain and revealed a potential risk for developing invasive disease. Viral load also seemed to be important as a marker associated with clinical presentation of the disease. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved renal function after kidney transplantation is associated with heme oxygenase-1 polymorphism

Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) has a microsatellite polymorphism based on the number of guanosine-thymidine nucleotide repeats (GT) repeats that regulates expression levels and could have an impact on organ survival post-injury. We correlated HO-1 polymorphism with renal graft function. The HO-1 gene was sequenced (N = 181), and the allelic repeats were divided into subclasses: short repeats (S) (< 27 repeats) and long repeats (L) (>= 27 repeats). A total of 47.5% of the donors carried the S allele. The allograft function was statistically improved six months, two and three yr after transplantation in patients receiving kidneys from donors with an S allele. For the recipients carrying the S allele (50.3%), the allograft function was also better throughout the follow-up, but reached statistical significance only three yr after transplantation (p = 0.04). Considering only those patients who had chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN; 74 of 181), allograft function was also better in donors and in recipients carrying the S allele, two and three yr after transplantation (p = 0.03). Recipients of kidney transplantation from donors carrying the S allele presented better function even in the presence of CAN.