Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Estimativas do teor de umidade empregando o método GPR: uma avaliação comparativa em experimentos de laboratório e campo

Este trabalho faz uma análise das estimativas de teores de umidade obtidas com o método Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) comparativamente às determinadas com os métodos Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) e gravimétrico. Os dados foram obtidos em dois experimentos diferentes: um experimento controlado em laboratório buscando reproduzir um meio homogêneo onde foram obtidas as medidas de umidade com GPR (antenas de 1 GHz) e TDR, e outro experimento de campo onde foram obtidos dados com GPR (antenas de 200 MHz) e de amostras de solos do local. Para a obtenção das estimativas a partir do método GPR foram analisados os eventos relativos à onda de transmissão direta entre as antenas, onda refratada criticamente e onda refletida em interfaces com diferentes propriedades elétricas.O GPR mostrou-se sensível às variações de umidades presentes nos dois experimentos e apresentou boa correlação com os dados obtidos com TDR (REQM de0,007 m³m-3) e das amostras (REQM de 0,039 m³m-3).

Natural and human forcing in recent geomorphic change; case studies in the Rio de la Plata basin

An analysis of geomorphic system`s response to change in human and natural drivers in some areas within the Rio de la Plata basin is presented The aim is to determine whether an acceleration of geomorphic processes has taken place in recent years and, if so, to what extent it is due to natural (climate) or human (land-use) drivers Study areas of different size, socio-economic and geomorphic conditions have been selected: the Rio de la Plata estuary and three sub-basins within its watershed Sediment cores were extracted and dated ((210)Pb) to determine sedimentation rates since the end of the 19th century. Rates were compared with time series on rainfall as well as human drivers such as population, GDP, livestock load, crop area, energy consumption or cement consumption, all of them related to human capacity to disturb land surface Data on river discharge were also gathered Results obtained indicate that sedimentation rates during the last century have remained essentially constant in a remote Andean basin, whereas they show important increases in the other two, particularly one located by the Sao Paulo metropolitan area Rates in the estuary are somewhere in between It appears that there is an intensification of denudation/sedimentation processes within the basin. Rainfall remained stable or varied very slightly during the period analysed and does not seem to explain increases of sedimentation rates observed. Human drivers, particularly those more directly related to capacity to disturb land surface (GDP, energy or cement consumption) show variations that suggest human forcing is a more likely explanation for the observed change in geomorphic processes It appears that a marked increase in denudation, of a ""technological"" nature, is taking place in this basin and leading to an acceleration of sediment supply This is coherent with similar increases observed in other regions (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved