Study of the relationship between roads, relief, land use, and natural vegetation in the Ibiuna Plateau - SP, focusing on landscape ecology

Roads facilitate access by deforestation agents, being relevant in studies approaching conservationist matters in rainforests. It is important to understand the relationship between road distribution, relief, land use, and forest coverage in order to evaluate where forests are more vulnerable. This study aimed at: 1) understanding the relationship between relief and density and road connectivity in three moments in time; and 2) evaluating the relationship between distance from roads and forest coverage, farmlands and rural and urban facilities in a fragmented Atlantic Forest landscape in three moments in time. Maps of roads, altitude, and land use and coverage were used. Chi-square tests showed that: 1) density and road connectivity did not present significant relationship with the relief; and 2) forest areas occupy areas distant from the roads, while farmlands and rural and urban facilities occupy areas nearer the roads. Roads and land use, regardless of relief, influence forest coverage distribution. Thus, we suggest that roads are taken into account in conservationist strategies and environmental planning.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Drainage Basins through a Multivariate Analysis within a GIS-Based Model

This paper presents a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach applied to coastal drainage basins where hydrological data are not available. It involves risk to different types of possible processes: coastal inundation (storm surge), river, estuarine and flash flood, either at urban or natural areas, and fords. Based on the causes of these processes, several environmental indicators were taken to build-up the risk assessment. Geoindicators include geological-geomorphologic proprieties of Quaternary sedimentary units, water table, drainage basin morphometry, coastal dynamics, beach morphodynamics and microclimatic characteristics. Bioindicators involve coastal plain and low slope native vegetation categories and two alteration states. Anthropogenic indicators encompass land use categories properties such as: type, occupation density, urban structure type and occupation consolidation degree. The selected indicators were stored within an expert Geoenvironmental Information System developed for the State of Sao Paulo Coastal Zone (SIIGAL), which attributes were mathematically classified through deterministic approaches, in order to estimate natural susceptibilities (Sn), human-induced susceptibilities (Sa), return period of rain events (Ri), potential damages (Dp) and the risk classification (R), according to the equation R=(Sn.Sa.Ri).Dp. Thematic maps were automatically processed within the SIIGAL, in which automata cells (""geoenvironmental management units"") aggregating geological-geomorphologic and land use/native vegetation categories were the units of classification. The method has been applied to the Northern Littoral of the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil) in 32 small drainage basins, demonstrating to be very useful for coastal zone public politics, civil defense programs and flood management.

Dynamics of Dissolved Forms of Carbon and Inorganic Nitrogen in Small Watersheds of the Coastal Atlantic Forest in Southeast Brazil

Based on the fact that streamwater quality reflects landscape conditions, the objectives of this study were: to investigate nitrogen (N), carbon (C), and major ion concentrations in six streams crossing minimally disturbed Atlantic Forest areas, with similar geomorphological characteristics; to determine N and C fluxes in one of these pristine streams (Indaia); and assess the impact of human activity on the biogeochemistry of two other streams in the same region, crossing urbanized areas. The distribution pattern of carbon and inorganic nitrogen dissolved forms, as well as the major ion and biogenic gas concentrations in the streamwater, was similar in pristine streams, indicating that the C and N dynamics were determined by influence of some factors, such as climate, atmospheric deposition, geology, soil type, and land covering, which were analogous in the forested watersheds. The urban streams were significantly different from the pristine streams, showing low dissolved oxygen concentrations, high respiration rates, and high concentrations of carbon dioxide, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, dissolved inorganic carbon, and major ion. These differences were attributed to anthropogenic impact on water quality, especially domestic sewage discharge. Additionally, in the Indaia stream, it was possible to observe the importance of rainfall over temporal dynamics of dissolved carbon forms, and also, the obtained specific flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen was relatively elevated (approximately 11 kg ha(-1) year(-1)). These results reveal the influence of human activity over the biogeochemistry of coastal streams and also indicate the importance N export of Atlantic Forest to the ocean.