An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Prospective randomized trial of EUS versus ERCP-guided common bile duct stone removal: an interim report (with video)

Background: EUS is being increasingly utilized for the diagnosis of choledocholithiasis and microlithiasis, especially in patients with biliary colic. Simultaneously, there is also a rising interest in the use of EUS for therapeutic interventions. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the effectiveness of EUS-directed common bile duct (CBD) stone removal to compare its safety and effectiveness with ERCP-directed intervention. Design: interim results of a prospective, randomized, single-center blinded clinical trial. Setting: A single tertiary care referral center. Patients: Fifty-two patients with uncomplicated CBD stones were prospectively randomized to CBD cannulation and stone removal under EUS or ERCP guidance. Main Outcome Measurements and Interventions: Primary outcome measure was the rate of successful cannulation of the CBD. Secondary Outcome measures included Successful removal of stones and overall complication rates. Results: CBD cannulation followed by stone extraction was successful in 23 of 26 patients (88.5%) in the EUS group (1) versus 25 of 26 patients (96.2%) in the ERCP group (11) (95% CI, -27.65%, 9.88%). Overall, there were 3 complications in the EUS group and 4 complications in the ERCP group. Limitation: The current study is an interim report from a single center report and performed by a single operator. Conclusions: Our preliminary analysis indicates that Outcomes following EUS-guided CBD stone retrieval are equivalent to those following ERCP EUS-related adverse events are similar to those following ERCP. ERCP and EUS-guided stone retrieval appears to be equally effective for therapeutic interventions of the bile duct. Additional studies are required to validate these preliminary results and to determine predictors of success of EUS-guided stone removal. (Gastrointest Endosc 2009;69:238-43.)