The Impacts of Inter-El Nino Variability on the Tropical Atlantic and Northeast Brazil Climate

In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate how different El Nino events affect the development of SST anomalies in the Atlantic and how this relates to the Brazilian northeast (NE) precipitation. The results show that different types of El Nino have different impacts on the SST anomalies of the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic but a similar SST response in the tropical North Atlantic. Strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos with the main heating source located in the eastern (central) Pacific generate cold (warm) anomalies in the cold tongue and Benguela upwelling regions during boreal winter and spring. When the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic are cold (warm), the meridional SST gradient across the equator is positive (negative) and the ITCZ is not allowed (allowed) to move southward during the boreal spring; as a consequence, the precipitation is below (above) the average over the NE. Thus, strong and long (weak and short) El Ninos are followed by dry (wet) conditions in the NE. During strong and long El Ninos, changes in the Walker circulation over the Atlantic and in the Pacific-South Atlantic (PSA) wave train cause easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic, which in turn activate the Bjerknes mechanism, establishing the cold tongue in boreal spring and summer. These easterly anomalies are also responsible for the Benguela upwelling. During short and weak El Ninos, westerly wind anomalies are present in the western equatorial Atlantic accompanied by warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial and tropical South Atlantic; a positive phase of the South Atlantic dipole develops during boreal winter. The simulations highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in establishing the correct slope of the equatorial thermocline and SST anomalies, which in turn determine the correct rainfall response over the NE.

Araucaria forest dynamics in relation to fire frequency in southern Brazil based on fossil and modern pollen dataf

To elucidate the relationship between forest dynamics and fire frequency pollen percentages and charcoal amounts from a 120 cm long peat core and from samples of modern pollen rain were collected along a transect. The study site in southern Brazil is characterized by a species-rich mosaic of grassland-Araucaria forest. It is of crucial importance for management strategies for conservation to understand the development and maintenance of these vegetation mosaics including their sharp forest-grassland boundaries. During the late Holocene, considerable changes occurred in the area. From Anno Domini (AD) 1360 to 1410, the area was dominated by Campos (grassland) vegetation and fire was very common. From AD 1410 to 1500, Araucaria forest expanded and fire was less frequent. From AD 1500 to 1580, Campos grassland spread and the Araucaria forest ceased its development, apparently due to the increase of fire. From AD 1580 to 1935, after a decrease in fire frequency, Araucaria forest expanded again. From AD 1935 to the present, the Araucaria forest expanded while the Campos area decreased. Fire was very rare in this period. The results indicate a strong interaction of forest expansion, forming a mosaic of Campos and Araucaria forest, and the frequency of fire during the past 600 years. A possible collapse of the indigenous population following the post-Colombian colonization in southern Brazil after about AD 1550 may have caused a great reduction of fire frequency. The introduction of cattle (probably after AD 1780) and the resulting decrease of fire frequency might be the reason for forest expansion. Fire is probably the most important factor controlling the dynamics of the forest-grassland mosaics and the formation of sharp borders between these two vegetation types. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of the South Indian and Pacific oceans in South American monsoon variability

This work has investigated the impact of three different low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variability modes located in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans on the interannual variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) using observed and numerical data. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis and numerical simulations with a General Circulation Model (GCM) were used. One of the three SST variability modes is located close to southeastern Africa. According to the composites, warmer waters over this region are associated with enhanced austral summer precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM is able to reproduce this anomalous precipitation pattern, simulating a wave train emanating from the Indian Ocean towards South America (SA). A second SST variability mode was located in the western Pacific Ocean. REOF analysis indicates that warmer waters are associated with drought conditions over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and enhanced precipitation over the sub-tropics. The GCM indicates that the warmer waters over Indonesia generate drought conditions over tropical SA through a Pacific South America-like (PSA) wave pattern emanating from the western Pacific. Finally, the third SST variability mode is located over the southwestern South Pacific. The composites indicate that warmer waters are associated with enhanced precipitation over the SACZ and drought conditions over the sub-tropics. There is a PSA-like wave train emanating from Indonesia towards SA, and another crossing the Southern Hemisphere in the extra-tropics, probably associated with transient activity. The GCM is able to reproduce the anomalous precipitation pattern, although it is weaker than observed. The PSA-like pattern is simulated, but the model fails in reproducing the extra-tropical wave activity.