Infant mortality model for lifetime data

In this paper we introduce a parametric model for handling lifetime data where an early lifetime can be related to the infant-mortality failure or to the wear processes but we do not know which risk is responsible for the failure. The maximum likelihood approach and the sampling-based approach are used to get the inferences of interest. Some special cases of the proposed model are studied via Monte Carlo methods for size and power of hypothesis tests. To illustrate the proposed methodology, we introduce an example consisting of a real data set.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Autonomic impairment after myocardial infarction: Role in cardiac remodelling and mortality

P>1. Impairmant of baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) has been implicated in the reduction of heart rate variability (HRV) and in the increased risk of death after myocardial infarction (MI). In the present study, we investigated whether the additional impairment in BRS induced by sinoaortic baroreceptor denervation (SAD) in MI rats is associated with changes in the low-frequency (LF) component of HRV and increased mortality rate. 2. Rats were randomly divided into four groups: control, MI, denervated (SAD) and SAD + MI rats. Left ventricular (LV) function was evaluated by echocardiography. Autonomic components were assessed by power spectral analysis and BRS. 3. Myocardial infarction (90 days) reduced ejection fraction (by similar to 42%) in both the MI and SAD + MI groups; however, an increase in LV mass and diastolic dysfunction were observed only in the SAD + MI group. Furthermore, BRS, HRV and the LF power of HRV were reduced after MI, with an exacerbated reduction seen in SAD + MI rats. The LF component of blood pressure variability (BPV) was increased in the MI, SAD and SAD + MI groups compared with the control group. Mortality was higher in the MI groups compared with the non-infarcted groups, with an additional increase in mortality in the SAD + MI group compared with the MI group. Correlations were obtained between BRS and the LF component of HRV and between LV mass and the LF component of BPV. 4. Together, the results indicate that the abolishment of BRS induced by SAD in MI rats further reduces the LF band of HRV, resulting in a worse cardiac remodelling and increased mortality in these rats. These data highlight the importance of this mechanism in the prognosis of patients after an ischaemic event.

Surveillance for adverse events after DTwP/Hib vaccination in Brazil: Sensitivity and factors associated with reporting

We estimated the sensitivity, i.e., the proportion of all cases of adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) reported to the Brazilian passive surveillance for adverse events following immunization (PSAEFI) with the diphtheria-tetanus-whole-cell pertussis-Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTwP/Hib) vaccine, as well as investigating factors associated with AEFIs reporting. During 2003-2004, 8303 AEFIs associated with DTwP-Hib were reported; hypotonic-hyporesponsive episodes (HHEs), fever and convulsions being the most common. Cure without sequel was achieved in 98.4% of the cases. The mean sensitivity of the PSAEFI was 22.3% and 31.6%, respectively, for HHE and convulsions, varying widely among states. Reporting rates correlated positively with the Human Development Index and coverage of adequate prenatal care, correlating negatively with infant mortality rates. Quality of life indicators and the degree of organization of health services are associated with greater PSAEFI sensitivity. In addition to consistently describing the principal AEFIs, PSAEFI showed the DTwP/Hib vaccine to be safe and allayed public fears related to its use. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent Trends in Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health in Brazil: Progress Toward Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5

We analyzed Brazil`s efforts in reducing child mortality, improving maternal and child health, and reducing socioeconomic and regional inequalities from 1990 through 2007. We compiled and reanalyzed data from several sources, including vital statistics and population-based surveys. We also explored the roles of broad socioeconomic and demographic changes and the introduction of health sector and other reform measures in explaining the improvements observed. Our findings provide compelling evidence that pro-active measures to reduce health disparities accompanied by socioeconomic progress can result in measurable improvements in the health of children and mothers in a relatively short interval. Our analysis of Brazil`s successes and remaining challenges to reach and surpass Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 can provide important lessons for other low- and middle-income countries. (Am J Public Health. 2010;100:1877-1889. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2010.196816)

Health in Brazil 6 Health conditions and health-policy innovations in Brazil: the way forward

Brazil is a large complex country that is undergoing rapid economic, social, and environmental change In this Series of six articles, we have reported important improvements in health status and life expectancy, which can be ascribed largely to progress in social determinants of health and to implementation of a comprehensive national health system with strong social participation. Many challenges remain, however. Socioeconomic and regional disparities are still unacceptably large, reflecting the fact that much progress is still needed to improve basic living conditions for a large proportion of the population. New health problems arise as a result of urbanisation and social and environmental change, and some old health issues remain unabated. Administration of a complex, decentralised public-health system, in which a large share of services is contracted out to the private sector, together with many private insurance providers, inevitably causes conflict and contradiction. The challenge is ultimately political, and we conclude with a call for action that requires continuous engagement by Brazilian society as a whole in securing the right to health for all Brazilian people.

Health in Brazil 2 Maternal and child health in Brazil: progress and challenges

In the past three decades, Brazil has undergone rapid changes in major social determinants of health and in the organisation of health services. In this report, we examine how these changes have affected indicators of maternal health, child health, and child nutrition. We use data from vital statistics, population censuses, demographic and health surveys, and published reports. In the past three decades, infant mortality rates have reduced substantially, decreasing by 5.5% a year in the 1980s and 1990s, and by 4.4% a year since 2000 to reach 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2008. Neonatal deaths account for 68% of infant deaths. Stunting prevalence among children younger than 5 years decreased from 37% in 1974-75 to 7% in 2006-07. Regional differences in stunting and child mortality also decreased. Access to most maternal-health and child-health interventions increased sharply to almost universal coverage, and regional and socioeconomic inequalities in access to such interventions were notably reduced. The median duration of breastfeeding increased from 2.5 months in the 1970s to 14 months by 2006-07. Official statistics show stable maternal mortality ratios during the past 10 years, but modelled data indicate a yearly decrease of 4%, a trend which might not have been noticeable in official reports because of improvements in death registration and the increased number of investigations into deaths of women of reproductive age. The reasons behind Brazil`s progress include: socioeconomic and demographic changes (economic growth, reduction in income disparities between the poorest and wealthiest populations, urbanisation, improved education of women, and decreased fertility rates), interventions outside the health sector (a conditional cash transfer programme and improvements in water and sanitation), vertical health programmes in the 1980s (promotion of breastfeeding, oral rehydration, and immunisations), creation of a tax-funded national health service in 1988 (coverage of which expanded to reach the poorest areas of the country through the Family Health Program in the mid-1990s); and implementation of many national and state-wide programmes to improve child health and child nutrition and, to a lesser extent, to promote women`s health. Nevertheless, substantial challenges remain, including overmedicalisation of childbirth (nearly 50% of babies are delivered by caesarean section), maternal deaths caused by illegal abortions, and a high frequency of preterm deliveries.

Systemic delivery of adult stem cells improves cardiac function in spontaneously hypertensive rats

Heart regeneration after myocardial infarction (MI) can occur after cell therapy, but the mechanisms, cell types and delivery methods responsible for this improvement are still under investigation. In the present study, we evaluated the impact of systemic delivery of bone marrow cells (BMC) and cultivated mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) on cardiac morphology, function and mortality in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) submitted to coronary occlusion. Female syngeneic adult SHR, submitted or not (control group; C) to MI, were treated with intravenous injection of MSC (MI + MSC) or BMC (MI + BM) from male rats and evaluated after 1, 15 and 30 days by echocardiography. Systolic blood pressure (SBP), functional capacity, histology, mortality rate and polymerase chain reaction for the Y chromosome were also analysed. Myocardial infarction induced a decrease in SBP and BMC, but not MSC, prevented this decrease. An improvement in functional capacity and ejection fraction (38 +/- 4, 39 +/- 3 and 58 +/- 2% for MI, MI + MSC and MI + BM, respectively; P < 0.05), as well as a reduction of the left ventricle infarcted area, were observed in rats from the MI + BM group compared with the other three groups. Treated animals had a significantly reduced lesion tissue score. The mortality rate in the C, MI + BM, MI + MSC and MI groups was 0, 0, 16.7 and 44.4%, respectively (P < 0.05 for the MI + MSC and MI groups compared with the C and MI + BM groups). The results of the present study suggest that systemic administration of BMC can improve left ventricular function, functional capacity and, consequently, reduce mortality in an animal model of MI associated with hypertension. We speculate that the cells transiently home to the myocardium, releasing paracrine factors that recruit host cells to repair the lesion.