Prediction in Multilevel Logistic Regression

The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

Comparison of Quantitative T-Wave Alternans Profiles of Healthy Subjects and ICD Patients

Background: Current relevance of T-wave alternans is based on its association with electrical disorder and elevated cardiac risk. Quantitative reports would improve understanding on TWA augmentation mechanisms during mental stress or prior to tachyarrhythmias. However, little information is available about quantitative TWA values in clinical populations. This study aims to create and compare TWA profiles of healthy subjects and ICD patients, evaluated on treadmill stress protocols. Methods: Apparently healthy subjects, not in use of any medication were recruited. All eligible ICD patients were capable of performing an attenuated stress test. TWA analysis was performed during a 15-lead treadmill test. The derived comparative profile consisted of TWA amplitude and its associated heart rate, at rest (baseline) and at peak TWA value. Chi-square or Mann-Whitney tests were used with p values <= 0.05. Discriminatory performance was evaluated by a binary logistic regression model. Results: 31 healthy subjects (8F, 23M) and 32 ICD patients (10F, 22M) were different on baseline TWA (1 +/- 2 mu V; 8 +/- 9 mu V; p < 0.001) and peak TWA values (26 +/- 13 mu V; 37 +/- 20 mu V; p = 0,009) as well as on baseline TWA heart rate (79 +/- 10 bpm; 67 +/- 15 bpm; p < 0.001) and peak TWA heart rate (118 +/- 8 bpm; 90 +/- 17 bpm; p < 0.001). The logistic model yielded sensitivity and specificity values of 88.9% and 92.9%, respectively. Conclusions: Healthy subjects and ICD patients have distinct TWA profiles. The new TWA profile representation (in amplitude-heart rate pairs) may help comparison among different research protocols. Ann Noninvasive Electrocardiol 2009;14(2):108-118.

Tooth loss prevalence and risk indicators in an isolated population of Brazil

Objective. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, extent, and risk indicators of tooth loss in an isolated population of Brazil. Material and methods. Two-hundred-and-forty-two subjects, ranging in age from 14 to 82 years (mean 36.2 years), were identified by census in an isolated population of Brazil. All consenting subjects received a full-mouth clinical (DFT index and information about missing teeth) and periodontal examination of 6 sites per tooth. Furthermore, they were interviewed using a structured written questionnaire in order to gather information about demographic, environmental, and biological variables. Results. Of the 200 subjects (80% response rate), 19 (9.5%) were edentulous, 90% had lost at least one tooth, and 39% had lost more than 8 teeth. The mean number of teeth lost was 9.5 (95% CI = 8.2-10.8). First mandibular molars were the most commonly missing teeth. In a multiple logistic regression analysis based on a theoretical hierarchical model of tooth loss, having more than 8 teeth lost was strongly associated with adult age (OR = 18.3-17.3, 95% CIs = 4.8-69.7 and 4.0-75.1) and female gender (OR = 5.9, 95% CI = 1.9-18.2) in the final model. Conclusions. Tooth loss was highly prevalent and extensive in this isolated population. Demographic and behavioral factors played an important role in tooth loss prevalence in this population.

The variability and predictors of quality of AIDS care services in Brazil

Background: Since establishing universal free access to antiretroviral therapy in 1996, the Brazilian Health System has increased the number of centers providing HIV/AIDS outpatient care from 33 to 540. There had been no formal monitoring of the quality of these services until a survey of 336 AIDS health centers across 7 Brazilian states was undertaken in 2002. Managers of the services were asked to assess their clinics according to parameters of service inputs and service delivery processes. This report analyzes the survey results and identifies predictors of the overall quality of service delivery. Methods: The survey involved completion of a multiple-choice questionnaire comprising 107 parameters of service inputs and processes of delivering care, with responses assessed according to their likely impact on service quality using a 3-point scale. K-means clustering was used to group these services according to their scored responses. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of high service quality. Results: The questionnaire was completed by 95.8% (322) of the managers of the sites surveyed. Most sites scored about 50% of the benchmark expectation. K-means clustering analysis identified four quality levels within which services could be grouped: 76 services (24%) were classed as level 1 (best), 53 (16%) as level 2 (medium), 113 (35%) as level 3 (poor), and 80 (25%) as level 4 (very poor). Parameters of service delivery processes were more important than those relating to service inputs for determining the quality classification. Predictors of quality services included larger care sites, specialization for HIV/AIDS, and location within large municipalities. Conclusion: The survey demonstrated highly variable levels of HIV/AIDS service quality across the sites. Many sites were found to have deficiencies in the processes of service delivery processes that could benefit from quality improvement initiatives. These findings could have implications for how HIV/AIDS services are planned in Brazil to achieve quality standards, such as for where service sites should be located, their size and staffing requirements. A set of service delivery indicators has been identified that could be used for routine monitoring of HIV/AIDS service delivery for HIV/AIDS in Brazil (and potentially in other similar settings).

Coronary Artery Stenoses: Accuracy of 64-Detector Row CT Angiography in Segments with Mild, Moderate, or Severe Calcification-A Subanalysis of the CORE-64 Trial

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of cross-sectional arc calcification on the diagnostic accuracy of computed tomography (CT) angiography compared with conventional coronary angiography for the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Materials and Methods: Institutional Review Board approval and written informed consent were obtained from all centers and participants for this HIPAA-compliant study. Overall, 4511 segments from 371 symptomatic patients (279 men, 92 women; median age, 61 years [interquartile range, 53-67 years]) with clinical suspicion of CAD from the CORE-64 multi-center study were included in the analysis. Two independent blinded observers evaluated the percentage of diameter stenosis and the circumferential extent of calcium (arc calcium). The accuracy of quantitative multidetector CT angiography to depict substantial (>50%) stenoses was assessed by using quantitative coronary angiography (QCA). Cross-sectional arc calcium was rated on a segment level as follows: noncalcified or mild (<90 degrees), moderate (90 degrees-180 degrees), or severe (>180 degrees) calcification. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression, receiver operation characteristic curve, and clustering methods were used for statistical analyses. Results: A total of 1099 segments had mild calcification, 503 had moderate calcification, 338 had severe calcification, and 2571 segments were noncalcified. Calcified segments were highly associated (P < .001) with disagreement between CTA and QCA in multivariable analysis after controlling for sex, age, heart rate, and image quality. The prevalence of CAD was 5.4% in noncalcified segments, 15.0% in mildly calcified segments, 27.0% in moderately calcified segments, and 43.0% in severely calcified segments. A significant difference was found in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (noncalcified: 0.86, mildly calcified: 0.85, moderately calcified: 0.82, severely calcified: 0.81; P < .05). Conclusion: In a symptomatic patient population, segment-based coronary artery calcification significantly decreased agreement between multidetector CT angiography and QCA to detect a coronary stenosis of at least 50%.

Nasal eosinophilia: an indicator of eosinophilic inflammation in asthma

Background It is noteworthy that there is a clear clinical, epidemiological and pathophysiological association between upper and lower airway inflammation in rhinitis and asthma. Objective The aim of this study was to compare the eosinophil counts in induced sputum and nasal lavage fluids in asthma, checking their association and the accuracy of nasal eosinophilia as a predictor of sputum eosinophilia by a cross-sectional study. Methods The clinical evaluation, asthma control questionnaire (ACQ), pre- and post-bronchodilator spirometry, nasal and sputum sample was performed. The nasal eosinophilia was analysed by a receiver operating curve and logistic regression model. Results In 140 adults, the post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) did not differ between patients with or without sputum eosinophilia (0.18). After adjusted for upper airway symptoms, age, ACQ score and post-bronchodilator FEV(1), sputum eosinophilia was associated with 52 times increase in odds of nasal eosinophilia, whereas each 1% increase in bronchodilator response was associated with 7% increase in odds of nasal eosinophilia. Conclusion This study brings further evidence that upper airway diseases are an important component of the asthma syndrome. Furthermore, monitoring of nasal eosinophilia by quantitative cytology may be useful as a surrogate of sputum cytology in as a component of composite measurement for determining airway inflammation.

Self-perception and malocclusion and their relation to oral appearance and function

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between malocclusion and self-perception of oral appearance/function, in 12/15-year-old Brazilian adolescents. The cluster sample consisted of 717 teenagers attending 24 urban public (n=611) and 5 rural public (n=107) schools in Maringá/PR. Malocclusion was measured using the Dental Aesthetic Index (DAI), in accordance with WHO recommendations. A parental questionnaire was applied to collect information on esthetic perception level and oral variables related to oral health. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed. Multiple logistic regression confirmed that for 12-year-old, missing teeth (OR=2.865) and presence of openbite (open occlusal relationship) (OR=2.865) were risk indicators for speech capability. With regard to 15-year-old, presence of mandibular overjet (horizontal overlap) (OR=4.016) was a risk indicator for speech capability and molar relationship (OR=1.661) was a risk indicator for chewing capability. The impact of malocclusion on adolescents' life was confirmed in this study. Speech and chewing capability were associated with orthodontic deviations, which should be taken into consideration in oral health planning, to identify risk groups and improve community health services.

Bottle feeding, increased overjet and Class 2 primary canine relationship: is there any association?

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between bottle feeding and prevalence rates of increased overjet and Class 2 primary canine relationship. The sample consisted of 911 children (461 boys, 450 girls) aged 3 (13.9%), 4 (40.8%), 5 (34%) and 6 (11.3%) years, with complete primary dentition. Information about nutritive and nonnutritive (pacifier and/or digit) sucking habits was collected through questionnaires. Three calibrated dentists (κ: 0.9-1.0 and Rs > 0.90) performed the clinical assessments. The children were divided into four groups: G1 - not bottle-fed; G2 - exclusively bottle-fed; G3 - breast- and bottle-fed, bottle feeding ceased before 3 years of age; and G4 - breast- and bottle-fed, bottle feeding ceased between 3 and 4 years of age. Associations between nutritive and nonnutritive sucking behaviors and the malocclusions studied were analyzed by multiple binary logistic regression (α= 0.05). The frequencies of increased overjet were: 25.3% (G1), 38.8% (G2), 39.2% (G3) and 47.8% (G4). The percentages of Class 2 canine relationship were: 27.9% (G1), 48.8% (G2), 43.4% (G3) and 43% (G4). No significant effect of bottle feeding was found. The chances of diagnosing increased overjet (O.R. = 4.42, p < 0.001) and Class 2 canine relationship (O.R. = 4.02, p < 0.001) were greater for children with pacifier and/or digit-sucking habits, compared to those without a history of nonnutritive sucking behavior. It may be suggested that bottle feeding alone is not directly associated with higher prevalence rates of increased overjet and Class 2 canine relationship in the primary dentition.

Impacto da adequação da oferta energética sobre a mortalidade em pacientes de UTI recebendo nutrição enteral

OBJETIVO: Investigar a relação entre adequação da oferta energética e mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva em pacientes sob terapia nutricional enteral exclusiva. MÉTODOS: Estudo observacional prospectivo conduzido em uma unidade de terapia intensiva em 2008 e 2009. Foram incluídos pacientes >18 anos que receberam terapia nutricional enteral por >72h. A adequação da oferta de energia foi estimada pela razão administrado/prescrito. Para a investigação da relação entre variáveis preditoras (adequação da oferta energética, escore APACHE II, sexo, idade e tempo de permanência na unidade de terapia intensiva e o desfecho mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva, utilizou-se o modelo de regressão logística não condicional. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos 63 pacientes (média 58 anos, mortalidade 27%), 47,6% dos quais receberam mais de 90% da energia prescrita (adequação média 88,2%). O balanço energético médio foi de -190 kcal/dia. Observou-se associação significativa entre ocorrência de óbito e as variáveis idade e tempo de permanência na unidade de terapia intensiva, após a retirada das variáveis adequação da oferta energética, APACHE II e sexo durante o processo de modelagem. CONCLUSÃO: A adequação da oferta energética não influenciou a taxa de mortalidade na unidade de terapia intensiva. Protocolos de infusão de nutrição enteral seguidos criteriosamente, com adequação administrado/prescrito acima de 70%, parecem ser suficientes para não interferirem na mortalidade. Dessa forma, pode-se questionar a obrigatoriedade de atingir índices próximos a 100%, considerando a elevada frequência com que ocorrem interrupções no fornecimento de dieta enteral devido a intolerância gastrointestinal e jejuns para exames e procedimentos. Pesquisas futuras poderão identificar a meta ideal de adequação da oferta energética que resulte em redução significativa de complicações, mortalidade e custos.

Factors associated with stages of change for red meat and vegetable intake by Japanese-Brazilians

Stages of change assess individual motivation for lifestyle changes, contributing to the development of more effective intervention strategies. The objective of the present study was to identify factors associated with stages of change for lower intake of red meat and higher intake of vegetables in a cross-sectional analysis of 578 Japanese-Brazilians aged 30-90 years. In adjusted logistic regression models, the odds ratios for women (OR = 1.89; 95%CI: 1.154; 3.103) and physically active individuals (OR = 1.00; 95%CI: 1.000; 1.001) were positively associated with stage of "action" for the higher intake of vegetables. Inverse associations were observed between central obesity (OR = 0.5; 95%CI: 0.351; 0.887) and highest tertile of red meat intake (OR = 0.50; 95%CI: 0.302; 0.817), as well as a positive association between age (OR = 1.04; 95%CI: 1.020; 1.070) and the stage of "action" to the lower intake of meat were verified. Motivation for Japanese-Brazilians to change their food intake was linked to lifestyle. Stage of change is an important factor in mediating food intake behavior change.

Hipertensão arterial referida e indicadores antropométricos de gordura em idosos

OBJETIVO: Investigar a associação entre hipertensão arterial referida (HAr) e indicadores antropométricos de gordura, corporal e abdominal em idosos do município de São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Os dados de 1894 idosos foram baseados na pesquisa Saúde, Bem-Estar e Envelhecimento - SABE, 2000. Os indicadores antropométricos utilizados foram: Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC), perímetro da cintura (PC), razão cintura/quadril (RCQ) e razão cintura/estatura (RCE). Utilizou-se regressão logística binária, estratificada por sexo. RESULTADOS: A hipertensão arterial associou-se aos indicadores antropométricos. No modelo final (ajustado para idade, escolaridade, tabagismo, atividade física e diabetes), em ambos os sexos, o IMC apresentou maior força estatística, apesar de, nas mulheres, apresentar-se similar aos outros indicadores. À exceção da RCE, em homens, a HAr associou-se, positiva e independentemente, aos outros indicadores. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sugerem a relevância desses indicadores, para, precocemente, detectar os riscos para o desenvolvimento dessa doença e intervir na sua prevenção e controle.

Condições socioeconômicas e padrões alimentares de crianças de 4 a 11 anos: estudo SCAALA - Salvador/ Bahia

OBJETIVOS: identificar os padrões alimentares de crianças e sua associação com o nível socioeconômico das famílias. MÉTODOS: estudo transversal com 1260 crianças de 4 a 11 anos, residentes em Salvador-Bahia que incluiu aplicação de um Questionário de Frequência Alimentar semi-quantitativo. Os padrões alimentares foram identificados, empregando-se análise fatorial por componentes principais. O nível socioeconômico foi avaliado por meio de um indicador socioeconômico composto. Regressão logística multivariada foi empregada. RESULTADOS: identificaram-se quatro padrões que explicaram 45,9% da variabilidade dos dados de frequência alimentar. Crianças que pertencem ao nível socioeconômico mais alto têm 1,60 vezes mais chance (p<0,001) de apresentarem maior frequência de consumo de alimentos do padrão 1 (frutas, verduras, leguminosas, cereais e pescados) e 3,09 vezes mais chance (p<0,001) de apresentarem maior frequência de consumo dos alimentos do padrão 2 (leite/ derivados, catchup/ maionese/ mostarda e frango), quando se compara com aquele de crianças de nível socioeconômico mais baixo. Resultado inverso foi observado no padrão 4 (embutidos, ovos e carnes vermelhas); isto é, quanto maior o nível socioeconômico menor a chance da adoção desse padrão. Tendência similar foi notada para o padrão 3 (frituras, doces, salgadinhos, refrigerante/ suco artificial). CONCLUSÕES: padrões alimentares de crianças são dependentes das condições socioeconômicas das famílias e a adoção de itens alimentares mais saudáveis associa-se aos grupos de mais altos níveis socioeconômicos.

Consumo e comportamento alimentar entre adolescentes brasileiros: Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar (PeNSE), 2009

O objetivo deste artigo é descrever características de consumo e comportamento alimentar de adolescentes brasileiros e sua associação com fatores sociodemográficos. Estudou-se, em 2009, amostra representativa de alunos do 9º ano do ensino fundamental de escolas públicas e privadas das 26 capitais brasileiras e do Distrito Federal. Utilizou-se questionário autoaplicável sobre atributos sociodemográficos, consumo e comportamento alimentar, entre outros. Estimativas dos indicadores construídos foram apresentadas para o total da população e por sexo. A associação de cada um dos indicadores com variáveis sociodemográficas foi examinada por meio de regressão logística. A maioria dos adolescentes consumia regularmente feijão (62,6%), leite (53,6%) e guloseimas (50,9%), realizava pelo menos o almoço ou o jantar com a mãe ou responsável (62,6%) e comia assistindo televisão ou estudando (50,9%). Em geral, as meninas estavam mais expostas a práticas alimentares não desejáveis, e o melhor nível socioeconômico associou-se a maiores prevalências dos indicadores estudados. Os resultados revelaram consumo regular dos marcadores de alimentação não saudável e consumo inferior ao recomendado dos de alimentação saudável, apontando a necessidade de ações de promoção de saúde dirigidas a jovens.

Padrões dietéticos e câncer oral e de faringe: um estudo caso-controle no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

Investigou-se a associação entre padrões de dieta e câncer oral, como parte de um estudo multicêntrico latino-americano caso-controle de base hospitalar e incluiu 210 casos incidentes e 251 controles. Dados de consumo alimentar foram coletados por Questionário de Freqüência de Consumo Alimentar (QFCA). Análise fatorial identificou padrões alimentares, que foram categorizados em tercis. Calculou-se odds ratio (OR) com intervalo de 95 por cento de confiança (IC95 por cento ) por regressão logística múltipla não condicional. Os padrões "prudente", caracterizado em maioria por frutas e vegetais, e o padrão tradicional, por arroz e feijão, apresentaram associação inversa com o câncer oral para o mais elevado tercil, respectivamente: OR = 0,44; IC95 por cento : 0,25-0,75, valor de p de tendência (ptend) = 0,03; OR = 0,53; IC95 por cento : 0,30-0,93, ptend = 0,06. O padrão "lanches" não foi associado ao câncer oral. Além da proteção ao câncer oral conferida por dieta rica em vegetais e frutas, nossos dados sugerem que a dieta "tradicional" brasileira contendo em sua maioria arroz e feijão pode oferecer proteção ao câncer oral

Environmental conditions and rodent infestation in Campo Limpo district, Sao Paulo municipality, Brazil

Rodents are involved in the transmission to human beings of several diseases, including liptospirosis, which shows high lethality rates in Sao Paulo municipality. Despite this, few studies have assessed the relationship existing between urban environmental conditions and building rodent infestation. With the purpose of clarifying this relationship, an analysis has been conducted in order to quantify the influence of environmental factors upon rodent infestation on a low-income district. Diagnosis of the environmental situation has been performed to evaluate the frequency according to which harborage, food and access sources occur, and a survey on infestation rates in 2175 dwellings in the area studied. The logistic regression analysis showed that among the environmental variables, the one that showed the closest association with rodent infestation was access; followed by harborage, and food. It was concluded that poor socioeconomic and environmental conditions in the area propitiate the occurrence of high rodent infestation rates