Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor is up-regulated in human first-trimester placenta stimulated by soluble antigen of Toxoplasma gondii, resulting in increased monocyte adhesion on villous explants

Considering the potential role of macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) in the inflammation process in placenta when infected by pathogens, we investigated the production of this cytokine in chorionic villous explants obtained from human first-trimester placentas stimulated with soluble antigen from Toxoplasma gondii (STAg). Parallel cultures were performed with villous explants stimulated with STAB, interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), or STAB plus IFN-gamma. To assess the role of placental MIF on monocyte adhesiveness to human trophoblast, explants were co-cultured with human myelomonocytic THP-1 cells in the presence or absence of supernatant from cultures treated with STAB (SPN), SPN plus anti-MIF antibodies, or recombinant MIF. A significantly higher concentration of MIF was produced and secreted by villous explants treated with STAB or STAB plus IFN-gamma after 24-hour culture. Addition of SPN or recombinant MIF was able to increase THP-1 adhesion, which was inhibited after treatment with anti-MIF antibodies. This phenomenon was associated with intercellular adhesion molecule expression by villous explants. Considering that the processes leading to vertical dissemination of T. gondii remain widely unknown, our results demonstrate that MIF production by human first-trimester placenta is up-regulated by parasite antigen and may play an essential role as an autocrine/paracrine mediator in placental infection by T. gondii.