Hierarchical spherical model from a geometric point of view

A continuous version of the hierarchical spherical model at dimension d=4 is investigated. Two limit distributions of the block spin variable X(gamma), normalized with exponents gamma = d + 2 and gamma=d at and above the critical temperature, are established. These results are proven by solving certain evolution equations corresponding to the renormalization group (RG) transformation of the O(N) hierarchical spin model of block size L(d) in the limit L down arrow 1 and N ->infinity. Starting far away from the stationary Gaussian fixed point the trajectories of these dynamical system pass through two different regimes with distinguishable crossover behavior. An interpretation of this trajectories is given by the geometric theory of functions which describe precisely the motion of the Lee-Yang zeroes. The large-N limit of RG transformation with L(d) fixed equal to 2, at the criticality, has recently been investigated in both weak and strong (coupling) regimes by Watanabe (J. Stat. Phys. 115:1669-1713, 2004) . Although our analysis deals only with N = infinity case, it complements various aspects of that work.

Hipertensão em segmentos sociais pauperizados da região do Vale do Paraíba São Paulo

O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar as relações entre fatores socioeconômicos, ambientais e biológicos com a hipertensão, segundo gênero. A população estudada foi formada por adultos residentes em dois municípios do Vale do Paraíba (SP), uma das regiões mais pobres do estado de São Paulo. Foi composta por 274 (39,8%) homens e 415 (60,2 %) mulheres. O estudo foi realizado por meio de um modelo de regressão logística hierarquizada, aplicado separadamente para homens e mulheres. Foram estimados os odds ratios ajustados (ORaj), com intervalo de confiança de 95% e a = 0,05. Para os homens, os seguintes fatores de risco estiveram associados à hipertensão: viver na zona rural (ORaj=2,00; p=0,01); etilismo (ORaj= 1,90; p=0,03) e idade acima de 40 anos (ORaj=3,10; p<0,0001). Famílias numerosas, com mais de seis pessoas exerceram efeito protetor (ORaj=0,46; p=0,02). Para mulheres, os fatores de risco associados foram: ausência de escolaridade (ORaj= 2,37; p=0,0003); sedentarismo (ORaj=1,71; p=0,04); obesidade acompanhada de baixa estatura (ORaj= 4,66; p <0,0001) e idade acima de 40 anos ( ORaj=5,29; p=0,01). A obesidade isolada não se associou à hipertensão, nos níveis pressóricos iguais ou maiores do que os correspondentes ao estágio II do padrão de referência.

The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

Prediction in Multilevel Logistic Regression

The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

Treadmill exercise testing of asymptomatic men and women without evidence of heart disease

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis of differences in performance including differences in ST-T wave changes between healthy men and women submitted to an exercise stress test. Two hundred (45.4%) men and 241 (54.6%) women (mean age: 38.7 ± 11.0 years) were submitted to an exercise stress test. Physiologic and electrocardiographic variables were compared by the Student t-test and the chi-square test. To test the hypothesis of differences in ST-segment changes, data were ranked with functional models based on weighted least squares. To evaluate the influence of gender and age on the diagnosis of ST-segment abnormality, a logistic model was adjusted; P < 0.05 was considered to be significant. Rate-pressure product, duration of exercise and estimated functional capacity were higher in men (P < 0.05). Sixteen (6.7%) women and 9 (4.5%) men demonstrated ST-segment upslope ≥0.15 mV or downslope ≥0.10 mV; the difference was not statistically significant. Age increase of one year added 4% to the chance of upsloping of segment ST ≥0.15 mV or downsloping of segment ST ≥0.1 mV (P = 0.03; risk ratio = 1.040, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.002-1.080). Heart rate recovery was higher in women (P < 0.05). The chance of women showing an increase of systolic blood pressure ≤30 mmHg was 85% higher (P = 0.01; risk ratio = 1.85, 95%CI = 1.1-3.05). No significant difference in the frequency of ST-T wave changes was observed between men and women. Other differences may be related to different physical conditioning.

Fatores de risco para nascimentos pré-termo em Londrina, Paraná, Brasil

Objetivou-se identificar fatores de risco para nascimentos pré-termo por meio de estudo caso-controle populacional que envolve nascidos vivos hospitalares de mães residentes em Londrina, Paraná, Brasil. Os casos foram os 328 nascimentos pré-termo e os controles, uma amostra proporcional de 369 nascimentos com 37 semanas ou mais. Realizou-se análise de regressão logística múltipla hierarquizada. Verificou-se associação (p < 0,05) para as variáveis: sócio-econômicas - moradia em favela e baixa idade do chefe familiar; características maternas: IMC < 19 e > 30kg/m², com filho anterior pré-termo, com tratamento para engravidar; características maternas durante a gestação: com companheiro há no máximo dois anos, preocupações, bebida alcoólica semanal, pré-natal inadequado, prática de caminhada como proteção; agravos na gestação - sangramento, infecção do trato genital, volume alterado do líquido amniótico, hipertensão arterial e internação; gestação múltipla. A identificação de fatores de risco e a melhoria da qualidade da atenção pré-concepcional e pré-natal podem reduzir a prematuridade.

Atividade física durante a gestação e desfechos fetais: um estudo de casos e controles

OBJETIVO: Analisar a relação entre atividade física durante o segundo trimestre de gestação e baixo peso ao nascer, prematuridade e restrição de crescimento intra-uterino. MÉTODOS: Estudo de caso-controle realizado no município de São Paulo, em 2005. Foram estudados 273 recém-nascidos de baixo peso e 546 controles. Dentre os casos foram selecionadas duas sub-amostras: 117 nascimentos pré-termo e 132 com restrição de crescimento intra-uterino (n=132) e seus respectivos controles. As informações foram obtidas mediante entrevistas com as puérperas e transcrição de dados dos prontuários. Foram realizadas análises de regressão logística múltipla condicional e hierarquizada. RESULTADOS: Foi identificado como fator de proteção para baixo peso ao nascer a realização de atividades leves por mais de sete horas diárias (ORaj:0,61; IC 95 por cento :0,39;0,94), para a qual identificou-se relação do tipo dose-resposta (p de tendência=0,026), e tendência similar na análise da restrição de crescimento intra-uterino (ORaj:0,51; IC 95 por cento :0,26;0,97). A realização de atividades domésticas associou-se como fator protetor tanto contra o baixo peso ao nascer quanto à prematuridade (p de tendência=0,013 e 0,035, respectivamente). Foi detectado efeito de proteção contra prematuridade para a caminhada no lazer. CONCLUSÕES: Atividades físicas leves, como caminhadas, durante o segundo trimestre de gestação exercem efeito protetor independente sobre o baixo peso ao nascer, a prematuridade e a restrição de crescimento intrauterino

Annual and polyetic progression of citrus canker on trees protected with copper sprays

The effects of copper sprays on annual and polyetic progress of citrus canker, caused by Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, in the presence of the Asian citrus leafminer (Phyllocnistis citrella), were evaluated in a study conducted in a commercial orchard in northwest Parana state, Brazil, where citrus canker is endemic. Nonlinear monomolecular, logistic and Gompertz models were fitted to monthly disease incidence data (proportion of leaves with symptoms) for each treatment for three seasons. The logistic model provided the best estimate of disease progress for all years and treatments evaluated and logistic parameter estimates were used to describe polyetic disease dynamics. Although citrus canker incidence increased during each of the seasons studied, it decreased over the whole study period, more so in copper-treated trees than in water-sprayed controls. Copper treatment reduced disease incidence compared with controls in every year, especially 2004-2005, when incidence was ca. 10-fold higher in controls than in treated plots (estimated asymptote values 0 center dot 82 and 0 center dot 07, respectively). Copper treatment also reduced estimated initial disease incidence and epidemic growth rates every year.

Comparison of Quantitative T-Wave Alternans Profiles of Healthy Subjects and ICD Patients

Background: Current relevance of T-wave alternans is based on its association with electrical disorder and elevated cardiac risk. Quantitative reports would improve understanding on TWA augmentation mechanisms during mental stress or prior to tachyarrhythmias. However, little information is available about quantitative TWA values in clinical populations. This study aims to create and compare TWA profiles of healthy subjects and ICD patients, evaluated on treadmill stress protocols. Methods: Apparently healthy subjects, not in use of any medication were recruited. All eligible ICD patients were capable of performing an attenuated stress test. TWA analysis was performed during a 15-lead treadmill test. The derived comparative profile consisted of TWA amplitude and its associated heart rate, at rest (baseline) and at peak TWA value. Chi-square or Mann-Whitney tests were used with p values <= 0.05. Discriminatory performance was evaluated by a binary logistic regression model. Results: 31 healthy subjects (8F, 23M) and 32 ICD patients (10F, 22M) were different on baseline TWA (1 +/- 2 mu V; 8 +/- 9 mu V; p < 0.001) and peak TWA values (26 +/- 13 mu V; 37 +/- 20 mu V; p = 0,009) as well as on baseline TWA heart rate (79 +/- 10 bpm; 67 +/- 15 bpm; p < 0.001) and peak TWA heart rate (118 +/- 8 bpm; 90 +/- 17 bpm; p < 0.001). The logistic model yielded sensitivity and specificity values of 88.9% and 92.9%, respectively. Conclusions: Healthy subjects and ICD patients have distinct TWA profiles. The new TWA profile representation (in amplitude-heart rate pairs) may help comparison among different research protocols. Ann Noninvasive Electrocardiol 2009;14(2):108-118.

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric ICC treats both correct and incorrect answers symmetrically, which results in a logical contradiction in ordering examinees on the ability scale. A data set corresponding to a mathematical test applied in Peruvian public schools is analyzed, where comparisons with other parametric IRT models also are conducted. Several model comparison criteria are discussed and implemented. The main conclusion is that the LPE and RLPE IRT models are easy to implement and seem to provide the best fit to the data set considered.

Aleitamento materno, alimentação complementar, sobrepeso e obesidade em pré-escolares

OBJETIVO: Analisar a associação do sobrepeso e da obesidade com o aleitamento materno e a alimentação complementar em pré-escolares. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal envolvendo 566 crianças matriculadas em escolas particulares no município de São Paulo, SP, 2004-2005. A variável dependente foi sobrepeso e obesidade. Para a classificação do estado nutricional das crianças foram utilizadas as curvas de percentis do Índice de Massa Corporal para idade, classificando como sobrepeso valores e"P85 e modelo hierarquizado. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de sobrepeso e obesidade da população estudada foi de 34,4%. Foram fatores de proteção contra sobrepeso e obesidade o aleitamento materno exclusivo por seis meses ou mais (IC 95% [0,38;0,86]; OR=0,57; p=0,02) e o aleitamento materno por mais de 24 meses (IC 95% [0,05;0,37]; OR=0,13; p=0,00). CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados sugerem que o aleitamento materno pode proteger as crianças contra o sobrepeso e a obesidade, agregando mais uma vantagem ao leite materno.

Práticas de alimentação complementar no primeiro ano de vida e fatores associados

OBJETIVO: Investigar a prevalência de consumo de alimentos complementares e os fatores associados à alimentação complementar oportuna em menores de um ano. MÉTODOS: Participaram do estudo 1 176 crianças, durante a Campanha Nacional de Vacinação de 2003, em São Bernardo do Campo (SP), cujos acompanhantes responderam questionário que incluiu questões sobre a alimentação da criança nas 24 horas precedentes. A estimativa da prevalência de consumo dos alimentos complementares foi realizada por um modelo de regressão logística ajustado por idade; as medianas de introdução de alimentos por análise de sobrevida e os fatores associados à alimentação complementar oportuna por regressão de Poisson com ajuste robusto de variância e seleção hierarquizada de variáveis. RESULTADOS: Observou-se introdução precoce de alimentos complementares: no quarto mês, cerca de um terço das crianças recebiam suco de fruta e um quarto das crianças recebiam mingau, fruta ou sopa, ao passo que a probabilidade de consumir a comida da família aos oito meses foi baixa (48%). A mediana de idade para o consumo de frutas foi de 266 dias (IC95% 256-275), de papa de legumes foi 258 dias (IC95% 250-264) e comida da família, 292 dias (IC 95% 287-303). Os fatores associados ao consumo de alimentos sólidos antes dos seis meses de idade foram: sistema de assistência à saúde; idade materna; trabalho materno e uso de chupeta. CONCLUSÃO: O consumo precoce de alimentos sólidos, um risco potencial para a saúde infantil e para o desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas na idade adulta, evidenciam a necessidade de ações programáticas para reversão deste quadro.

Model for facilities or vendors location in a global scale considering several echelons in the Chain

The facilities location problem for companies with global operations is very complex and not well explored in the literature. This work proposes a MILP model that solves the problem through minimization of the total logistic cost. Main contributions of the model are the pioneer carrying cost calculation, the treatment given to the take-or-pay costs and to the international tax benefits such as drawback and added value taxes in Brazil. The model was successfully applied to a real case of a chemical industry with industrial plants and sales all over the world. The model application recommended a totally new sourcing model for the company.

A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.