Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Regional scale analysis of landform configuration with base-level (isobase) maps

Base-level maps (or ""isobase maps"", as originally defined by Filosofov, 1960), express a relationship between valley order and topography. The base-level map can be seen as a ""simplified"" version of the original topographic surface, from which the ""noise"" of the low-order stream erosion was removed. This method is able to identify areas with possible tectonic influence even within lithologically uniform domains. Base-level maps have been recently applied in semi-detail scale (e.g., 1:50 000 or larger) morphotectonic analysis. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the method's applicability in regional-scale analysis (e.g., 1:250 000 or smaller). A test area was selected in northern Brazil, at the lower course of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. The drainage network extracted from SRTM30_PLUS DEMs with spatial resolution of approximately 900 m was visually compared with available topographic maps and considered to be compatible with a 1:1,000 000 scale. Regarding the interpretation of regional-scale morphostructures, the map constructed with 2nd and 3rd-order valleys was considered to present the best results. Some of the interpreted base-level anomalies correspond to important shear zones and geological contacts present in the 1:5 000 000 Geological Map of South America. Others have no correspondence with mapped Precambrian structures and are considered to represent younger, probably neotectonic, features. A strong E-W orientation of the base-level lines over the inflexion of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers, suggest a major drainage capture. A N-S topographic swath profile over the Tocantins and Araguaia rivers reveals a topographic pattern which, allied with seismic data showing a roughly N-S direction of extension in the area, lead us to interpret this lineament as an E-W, southward-dipping normal fault. There is also a good visual correspondence between the base-level lineaments and geophysical anomalies. A NW-SE lineament in the southeast of the study area partially corresponds to the northern border of the Mosquito lava field, of Jurassic age, and a NW-SE lineament traced in the northeastern sector of the study area can be interpreted as the Picos-Santa Ines lineament, identifiable in geophysical maps but with little expression in hypsometric or topographic maps.