Bayesian density estimation using Skew Student-t-Normal mixtures

We present a Bayesian approach for modeling heterogeneous data and estimate multimodal densities using mixtures of Skew Student-t-Normal distributions [Gomez, H.W., Venegas, O., Bolfarine, H., 2007. Skew-symmetric distributions generated by the distribution function of the normal distribution. Environmetrics 18, 395-407]. A stochastic representation that is useful for implementing a MCMC-type algorithm and results about existence of posterior moments are obtained. Marginal likelihood approximations are obtained, in order to compare mixture models with different number of component densities. Data sets concerning the Gross Domestic Product per capita (Human Development Report) and body mass index (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), previously studied in the related literature, are analyzed. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Chagas disease-related mortality trends, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985 to 2006: a study using multiple causes of death

Objectives. To study mortality trends related to Chagas disease taking into account all mentions of this cause listed on any line or part of the death certificate. Methods. Mortality data for 1985-2006 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Chagas disease was classified as the underlying cause-of-death or as an associated cause-of-death (non-underlying). The total number of times Chagas disease was mentioned on the death certificates was also considered. Results. During this 22-year period, there were 40 002 deaths related to Chagas disease: 34 917 (87.29%) classified as the underlying cause-of-death and 5 085 (12.71%) as an associated cause-of-death. The results show a 56.07% decline in the death rate due to Chagas disease as the underlying cause and a stabilized rate as associated cause. The number of deaths was 44.5% higher among men. The fact that 83.5% of the deaths occurred after 45 years of age reflects a cohort effect. The main causes associated with Chagas disease as the underlying cause-of-death were direct complications due to cardiac involvement, such as conduction disorders, arrhythmias and heart failure. Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disorders and neoplasms were the main underlying causes when Chagas was an associated cause-of-death. Conclusions. For the total mentions to Chagas disease, a 51.34% decline in the death rate was observed, whereas the decline in the number of deaths was only 5.91%, being lower among women and showing a shift of deaths to older age brackets. Using the multiple cause-of-death method contributed to the understanding of the natural history of Chagas disease.

Ecological aspects of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in an Atlantic forest area on the north coast of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

Mosquito diversity was determined in an area located on the southern limit of the Atlantic Forest on the north coast of Rio Grande of Sul State. Our major objective was to verify the composition, diversity, and temporal distribution of the mosquito fauna, and the influence of temperature and rainfall. Samplings were performed monthly between December, 2006 and December, 2008, in three biotopes: forest, urban area, and transition area, using CDC light traps and a Nasci vacuum. A total of 2,376 specimens was collected, from which 1,766 (74.32%) were identified as 55 different species belonging to ten genera. Culex lygrus, Aedes serratus, and Aedes nubilus were dominant (eudominant) and constant throughout samplings. The forest environment presented the highest species dominance (D(S) = 0.20), while the transition area showed the highest values of diversity (H` = 2.55) and evenness (J` = 0.85). These two environments were the most similar, according to the Morisita-Horn Index (I(M-H) = 0.35). Bootstrap estimates showed that 87.3% of the species occurring in the region were detected. The seasonal pattern showed a greater abundance of mosquitoes between May and October, indicating the period to intensify entomological surveillance in that area. Journal of Vector Ecology 36 (1): 175-186. 2011.

Paracoccidioidomycosis-related mortality trend, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: a study using multiple causes of death

Objective. To investigate mortality in which paracoccidioidomycosis appears on any line or part of the death certificate. Method. Mortality data for 1985-2005 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Standardized mortality coefficients were calculated for paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death and as an associated cause-of-death, as well as for the total number of times paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned on the death certificates. Results. During this 21-year period, there were 1950 deaths related to paracoccidioidomycosis; the disease was the underlying cause-of-death in 1 164 cases (59.69%) and an associated cause-of-death in 786 (40.31%). Between 1985 and 2005 records show a 59.8% decline in the mortality coefficient due to paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause and a 53.0% decline in the mortality as associated cause. The largest number of deaths occurred among men, in the older age groups, and among rural workers, with an upward trend in winter months. The main causes associated with paracoccidioidomycosis as the underlying cause-of-death were pulmonary fibrosis, chronic lower respiratory tract diseases, and pneumonias. Malignant neoplasms and AIDS were the main underlying causes when paracoccidioidomycosis was an associated cause-of-death. The decision tables had to be adapted for the automated processing of causes of death in death certificates where paracoccidioidomycosis was mentioned. Conclusions. Using the multiple cause-of-death method together with the traditional underlying cause-of-death approach provides a new angle on research aimed at broadening our understanding of the natural history of paracoccidioidomycosis.

Prevalence of untreated caries in deciduous teeth in urban and rural areas in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Objectives. To describe the prevalence of dental caries in children with deciduous teeth in urban and rural areas in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and to identify associated factors. Methods. The study included 24 744 children ( 5 - 7 years of age) examined as part of an epidemiological survey on oral health carried out in the state of Sao Paulo ( Levan-tamento Epidemiologico de Sa de Bucal do Estado de Sao Paulo). Multilevel analysis was used to investigate whether the prevalence of untreated caries was associated with the sociodemographic characteristics of the children examined or with the socioeconomic aspects of the participating cities. Results. Being black or brown ( adjusted odds ratio ( OR) = 1.27), attending school in rural areas ( adjusted OR = 1.88), and attending public school ( adjusted OR = 3.41) were identified as determinants for an increased probability of presenting deciduous teeth with untreated caries. Being a female ( adjusted OR = 0.83) was identified as a protective factor. The negative coefficients obtained for second- level independent variables indicate that the oral health profile of the cities included in the study were positively impacted by a higher municipal human development index ( beta = - 0.47) and fluoridated drinking water ( beta = - 0.32). Conclusions. The prevalence of untreated caries is influenced by individual and sociodemographic factors. The present study provides epidemiological information concerning the rural areas in the state of Sao Paulo. This information is useful for strategic planning and for establishing guidelines for oral health actions in local health systems, thereby contributing to oral health equity.

Impact of chronic disease on quality of life among the elderly in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil: a population-based study

Objectives. To assess the impact of chronic disease and the number of diseases on the various aspects of health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among the elderly in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods. The SF-36 (R) Health Survey was used to assess the impact of the most prevalent chronic diseases on HRQOL. A cross-sectional and population-based study was carried out with two-stage stratified cluster sampling. Data were obtained from a multicenter health survey administered through household interviews in several municipalities in the state of Sao Paulo. The study evaluated seven diseases-arthritis, back-pain, depression/anxiety, diabetes, hypertension, osteoporosis, and stroke-and their effects on quality of life. Results. Among the 1958 elderly individuals (60 years of age or older), 13.6% reported not having any of the illnesses, whereas 45.7% presented three or more chronic conditions. The presence of any of the seven chronic illnesses studied had a significant effect on the scores Of nearly all the SF-36 (R) scales. HRQOL achieved lower scores when related to depression/anxiety, osteoporosis, and stroke. The higher the number of diseases, the greater the negative effect on the SF-36 (R) dimensions. The presence of three or more diseases significantly affected HRQOL in all areas. The bodily pain, general health, and vitality scales were the most affected by diseases. Conclusions. The study detected a high prevalence of chronic diseases among the elderly population and found that the degree of impact on HRQOL depends on the type of disease. The results highlight the importance of preventing and controlling chronic diseases in order to reduce the number of comorbidities and lessen their impact on HRQOL among the elderly.

Overweight and obesity related factors in schoolchildren in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

The purpose of this study is to determine the correlation of socioeconomic, dietary, and anthropometric-nutritional variables of parents and their children to overweight (including obesity) in schoolchildren in Santa Catarina State, Brazil. This is a transversal study conducted on 4,964, 6 to 10-year-old schoolchildren registered in 345 Santa Catarina elementary schools. The following data were acquired: the children`s current weight and height, birth weight and length, duration of breastfeeding, age at which water, herbal tea and other foods were introduced to their diet; parental income, education level, age, weight and height were also obtained. The prevalence of overweight and obese children were estimated by point and by interval with a 95% confidence; prevalence rates were obtained based on the Poisson model. An hierarchical approach was used, in which variables were adjusted within blocks and included in the model when they presented p<0.05 at the outcome (overweight including obesity). The results indicate that 47.8% of the subjects were male. The prevalence of overweight and obese students was 15.4% (C195%: 14.4%-16.5%) and 6.1% (CI95%: 5.4%-6.7%) respectively and were statistically similar among sexes and age ranges. BMI values were higher in males and among older children (p<0.05). After adjustment within and among blocks, the variables per capita household income and parents` BM I values remained associated with overweight (including obesity). Overweight (including obesity) in schoolchildren is associated with a higher per capita household income and parental overweight and obesity.

Abundance and seasonality of Diptera (Insecta) in a poultry house in the northeast region of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Modem production systems accommodate broody hens in high densities, leading to the accumulation of excrement under the cages. This substrate is excellent for the development of sinantropic flies. Thus, the accomplishment of surveys in these places becomes essential, in order to plan better strategies of control. The present work aimed at studying the entornofauna and the seasonality of the species of dipterous present in the Crisdan poultry house located in the Municipality of Sao Joao da Boa Vista, the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. In the period of January of 2001 to December of 2002, 1,012,595 flies were captured using the ""jug-trap"". The species were identified: Drosophi-la repleta (Wollaston, 1858), Musca domestica (Linnaeus, 1758), Ophyra spp., Hennetria illucens (Linnaeus, 1758), Fannia canicularis (Linnaeus, 1761), Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius, 1794), and Sepsidae. More frequently D. repleta and M. domestica had added 99.47% of the dipterous. Increased rainfall and the collection months influenced the sampling of dipterous (P < 0.05). Drosophila repleta was the most abundant species, representing 91% of all captured flies. However, this diptera did not develop at the surveyed site since immatures were not captured therein.

Precipitation variability in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The State of Sao Paulo is the richest in Brazil, responsible for over 30% of the Brazilian gross rate. It has a population of around 30 million and its economy is based on agriculture and industrial products. Any change in climate can have a profound influence on the socio-economics of the State. In order to determine changes in total and extreme rainfall over Sao Paulo State, climate change indices derived from daily precipitation data were calculated using specially designed software. Maps of trends for a subset of 59 rain gauge stations were analysed for the period 1950-1999 and also for a subset of this period, 1990-1999, representing more recent climate. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to the time series. Maps of trends for six annual precipitation indices (annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), events greater than the 95th percentile (R95p), maximum five days precipitation total (RX5day), the length of the largest wet spell (CWD) and the length of the largest dry spell (CDD)) were analysed for the entire period. These exhibited statistically significant trends associated with a wetter climate. A significant increase in PRCPTOT, associated with very heavy precipitation days, were observed at more than 45% of the rain gauge stations. The Mann-Kendall test identified that the positive trend in PRCPTOT is possibly related to the increase in the R95p and R20mm indices. Therefore, the results suggest that there has been a change in precipitation intensity. In contrast, the indices for the more recent shorter time series are significantly different to the longer term indices. The results indicate that intense precipitation is becoming concentrated in a few days and spread over the period when the CDD and R20mm indices show positive trends, while negative ones are seen in the RX5day index. The trends found could be related to many anthropogenic aspects such as biomass burning aerosols and land use.

New Species of Earless Lizard Genus Heterodactylus (Squamata: Gymnophthalmidae) from the Highlands of Chapada Diamantina, State of Bahia, Brazil

A new species of Heterodactylus is described based on two specimens obtained in the highlands of Chapada Diamantina, state of Bahia, Brazil. The new lizard is characterized by very elongate body and tail, absence of external ear opening, presence of moveable eyelids, absence of prefrontals and frontoparietals, a vestigial interparietal, 37-39 dorsal and 27-29 ventral transverse scale rows, 23-25 scales around midbody, six gular scale rows, and 10-11 and 14-15 fourth finger and fourth toe infradigital lamellae, respectively. The new species is most similar to Heterodactylus lundii from which it differs by the absence of contact between frontal and interparietal, by having wider than long parietals, smooth posterior dorsal scales, posterior ventral scales almost twice longer than wide, a lower number of scales around midbody, last supralabial in contact with the granules of the ear depression, and a more elongate body. The new species occurs about 1,100 km north of the northernmost known record of H. lundii. Species of Heterodactylus seem to be restricted to areas of cold climates associated with high latitudes and mountainous areas of eastern Brasil.

A new Amphisbaena with chevron-shaped anterior body annuli from state of Pernambuco: Brazil (Squamata: Amphisbaenidae)

A new species of Amphisbaena is described from Fazenda Porto Seguro, municipality of Buique, state of Pernambuco, in the Caatingas of northeastern Brazil based on four specimens. The new species is a small and slender amphisbaenian with four precloacal pores, 333-337 body annuli, 22-23 tail annuli with discrete evidence of an autotomic site on the 10-12 tail annuli, and 14 dorsal and 17-18 ventral segments per annuli at midbody. The high number of body annuli, the presence of chevron-shaped anterior body annuli, and the fusion of frontal scales distinguish Amphisbaena supernumeraria sp. nov. from its congeners.

On the first terrestrial ostracod of the Superfamily Cytheroidea (Crustacea, Ostracoda): description of Intrepidocythere ibipora n. gen. n. sp from forest leaf litter in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Of the three superfamilies of Ostracoda present in fresh water, only the Cytheroidea had thus far no records in terrestrial environments. Here, we report on a new genus and species, Intrepidocythere ibipora n. gen. n. sp., of the ostracod superfamily Cytheroidea, from forest leaf litter in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Judging from morphological similarities, this new genus is believed to be closely related to the genus Elpidium. Possible pathways that led to the colonisation of terrestrial habitats are discussed, and an overview is given on the distribution of the known terrestrial ostracod lineages. The present findings strengthen the idea that terrestrial ostracods are more common than previously thought, at least in tropical areas.

First record of Stygnidae for the state of Espirito Santo and description of a new Protimesius (Arachnida : Opiliones : Laniatores)

Protimesius osvaldoi sp. nov. is described from the Reserva Biologica de Sooretama, state of Espirito Santo, Southeastern Brazil, being the First record of Stygnidae from this State and the southernmost record of the family in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (hitherto, the family was recorded down to Bahia only), extending in 210 km south of the previously known distribution. This is a large species, with armature of leg IV very reduced and penial morphology differing from the closest counterparts mainly in the ventral plate, which recedes deeply at the lateral borders and has the distal margin curved ventrally and by the presence of two small intermediate setae. Protimesius Roewer, 1913 consisted hitherto of 17 species, recorded from northern/northeastern Brazil and Amazonia of adjacent Countries. A key is given for the 17 species of Protimesius for which males are known.

Psammophilous halacarid mites (Trombidiformes, Halacaridae) from the North Coast of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Five halacarid species are reported from the Brazilian coast for the first time. Scaptognathides delicatulus, formerly known only from its type locality in Kuwait; Scaptognathus gibbosus, known from Galapagos and Somalia; and Scaptognathus insularis known from northeastern Australia, have their distributions extended. Along with these new records, Halacaroides antoniazziae sp. nov. and Acarochelopodia caissara sp. nov. are described. Halacaroides antoniazziae sp. nov. differs from its congeners by the presence of three subgenital setae in males and none in females, 41-44 perigenital setae and two posterior external genital acetabula in males. Acarochelopodia caissara sp. nov. has a rounded anterior epimeral plate margin, the posterior epimeral plates are partially divided into two halves but anteriorly joined by a narrow band, the dorsal setae on tarsus I are grouped 1:2, and the anterior and posterior dorsal plates have a length: width ratio of 1.61-1.77 and 1.60-1.70, respectively.