Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Comparing species and measures of landscape structure as indicators of conservation importance

P>1. The use of indicators to identify areas of conservation importance has been challenged on several grounds, but nonetheless retains appeal as no more parsimonious approach exists. Among the many variants, two indicator strategies stand out: the use of indicator species and the use of metrics of landscape structure. While the first has been thoroughly studied, the same cannot be said about the latter. We aimed to contrast the relative efficacy of species-based and landscape-based indicators by: (i) comparing their ability to reflect changes in community integrity at regional and landscape spatial scales, (ii) assessing their sensitivity to changes in data resolution, and (iii) quantifying the degree to which indicators that are generated in one landscape or at one spatial scale can be transferred to additional landscapes or scales. 2. We used data from more than 7000 bird captures in 65 sites from six 10 000-ha landscapes with different proportions of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. Indicator species and landscape-based indicators were tested in terms of how effective they were in reflecting changes in community integrity, defined as deviations in bird community composition from control areas. 3. At the regional scale, indicator species provided more robust depictions of community integrity than landscape-based indicators. At the landscape scale, however, landscape-based indicators performed more effectively, more consistently and were also more transferable among landscapes. The effectiveness of high resolution landscape-based indicators was reduced by just 12% when these were used to explain patterns of community integrity in independent data sets. By contrast, the effectiveness of species-based indicators was reduced by 33%. 4. Synthesis and applications. The use of indicator species proved to be effective; however their results were variable and sensitive to changes in scale and resolution, and their application requires extensive and time-consuming field work. Landscape-based indicators were not only effective but were also much less context-dependent. The use of landscape-based indicators may allow the rapid identification of priority areas for conservation and restoration, and indicate which restoration strategies should be pursued, using remotely sensed imagery. We suggest that landscape-based indicators might often be a better, simpler, and cheaper strategy for informing decisions in conservation.

Risk indicators for aggressive periodontitis in an untreated isolated young population from Brazil

This study aimed to assess the prevalence of aggressive periodontitis (AgP), and to investigate the association between demographic, socioeconomic and behavioral risk indicators with AgP in an untreated and isolated young population in Southeastern Brazil. For this cross-sectional survey, 134 subjects aged 12-29 years were selected by a census. Of those eligible, 101 subjects received a full-mouth clinical examination, and were interviewed using a structured written questionnaire. Cases were defined as individuals with 4 or more teeth with attachment loss > 4 mm or > 5 mm in the age groups 12-19 and 20-29, respectively. Overall, 9.9% of the subjects presented AgP (10.3% of the 12-19-year-olds and 9.7% of the 20-29-year-olds). The only risk indicator significantly associated with AgP in this isolated population was a high proportion of sites (> 30%) presenting supragingival calculus [OR = 23.2]. Having experienced an urgency dental treatment was a protective factor for AgP [OR = 0.1]. The authors concluded that this isolated and untreated population from Brazil presented a high prevalence of AgP. Local plaque-retaining factors played a major role in the prevalence of AgP in this isolated population, and should be included in further studies evaluating this destructive periodontal disease form.

Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

Vertebrados da Estação Ecológica Serra Geral do Tocantins: faunística, biodiversidade e conservação no Cerrado brasileiro

Inventários e estudos faunísticos detalhados sobre vertebrados são uma das fontes mais relevantes de dados para interpretações de padrões detalhados de diversidade biológica. Dados básicos e de boa qualidade sobre faunística são ainda mais urgentes em regiões pouco estudadas e sob intensa ameaça antrópica, tais como a região do Cerrado, um dos 34 hotspots globais para a conservação da biodiversidade. Apresentamos aqui uma síntese dos resultados dos inventários de vertebrados na Estação Ecológica Serra Geral do Tocantins (~716.000 ha), a segunda maior unidade de conservação em todo o Cerrado. Foram registradas 450 espécies de vertebrados na EESGT e entorno imediato, incluindo 17 espécies ameaçadas, 50 espécies endêmicas do Cerrado e 11 espécies com distribuição potencialmente restrita. Do total de espécies amostradas, 180 são novos registros para a região do Jalapão. Ao menos 12 espécies amostradas foram consideradas potenciais espécies novas, das quais quatro foram descritas recentemente, a partir do material obtido no inventário. Os resultados evidenciam que a EESGT é uma das mais importantes áreas protegidas no Brasil central, contribuindo para a persistência de espécies ameaçadas, dependentes dos últimos grandes blocos contínuos de vegetação nativa de Cerrado. Nossos resultados indicam ainda que a conservação da EESGT e suas principais subunidades é crucial para a representatividade do sistema de áreas protegidas do Cerrado, protegendo potenciais endemismos restritos que aliam alta vulnerabilidade intrínseca e valor como indicadores de padrões e processos biogeográficos formadores da rica e cada vez mais ameaçada fauna Neotropical.

Fatores associados à prática de atividade física global e de lazer em idosos: Inquérito de Saúde no Estado de São Paulo (ISA-SP), Brasil

The purpose of this study was to measure the prevalence of global and leisure-time physical activity and associated factors in the elderly. This was a population-based cross-sectional study covering a multiple-stage sample of 1,950 subjects 60 years or older living in areas of São Paulo State, Brazil. Prevalence of global physical activity (assessed through the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire - IPAQ) was 73.9%, and prevalence of leisure-time physical activity was 28.4%. The results highlight the differences between factors associated with global and leisure-time physical activities. The social groups most prone to overall sedentary lifestyle and especially to lack of leisure-time physical activity should be the main targets of health policies aimed at promoting healthier lifestyles.

Hanseníase no Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil: uma endemia em ascensão?

Descrição do comportamento e análise da tendência da hanseníase entre pacientes residentes no Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil, de 1980 a 2003. Utilizando modelos estatísticos para séries temporais, identificou-se tendência crescente para todo o período da taxa de detecção global (p < 0,05) com aparente estabilização no final do período, verificamos também tendência crescente para os períodos: (i) 1980-1987 nos grupos etários de < 15 anos e 50 anos e mais e para formas paucibacilares; (ii) 1988-1995 para as faixas de 15-19 anos, 20-29 e 50 anos e mais e para formas multibacilares; (iii) 1996-2003 no grupo de 20-29 anos e formas paucibacilares. Os indicadores de avaliação da endemia apontaram patamares estáveis do grau de incapacidade 2 (em média 6%); a proporção de casos entre < 15 anos situou-se abaixo de 10% e a de abandono de tratamento em torno de 6%. A prevalência apresentou forte declínio. A tendência crescente pode ser explicada, em parte pela maior sensibilidade da vigilância, mas a elevada proporção entre < 15 anos aponta a necessidade de estudos visando ao melhor conhecimento dos resíduos de fontes de infecção especialmente no domicílio.

Narrowing socioeconomic inequality in child stunting: the Brazilian experience, 1974–2007

Objective To assess trends in the prevalence and social distribution of child stunting in Brazil to evaluate the effect of income and basic service redistribution policies implemented in that country in the recent past. Methods The prevalence of stunting (height-for-age z score below \22122 using the Child Growth Standards of the World Health Organization) among children aged less than 5 years was estimated from data collected during national household surveys carried out in Brazil in 1974\201375 (n = 34 409), 1989 (n = 7374), 1996 (n = 4149) and 2006\201307 (n = 4414). Absolute and relative socioeconomic inequality in stunting was measured by means of the slope index and the concentration index of inequality, respectively. Findings Over a 33-year period, we documented a steady decline in the national prevalence of stunting from 37.1 per cent to 7.1 per cent. Prevalence dropped from 59.0 per cent to 11.2 per cent in the poorest quintile and from 12.1 per cent to 3.3 per cent among the wealthiest quintile. The decline was particularly steep in the last 10 years of the period (1996 to 2007), when the gaps between poor and wealthy families with children under 5 were also reduced in terms of purchasing power; access to education, health care and water and sanitation services; and reproductive health indicators.Conclusion In Brazil, socioeconomic development coupled with equity-oriented public policies have been accompanied by marked improvements in living conditions and a substantial decline in child undernutrition, as well as a reduction of the gap in nutritional status between children in the highest and lowest socioeconomic quintiles. Future studies will show whether these gains will be maintained under the current global economic crisis

Fatores associados à obesidade global e à obesidade abdominal em mulheres na pós-menopausa

OBJETIVOS: avaliar a prevalência de obesidade global e obesidade abdominal, em mulheres pós-menopausa, segundo o grau de instrução, nível de atividade física, uso de terapia hormonal na menopausa (THM) e paridade. MÉTODOS: foram entrevistadas 157 mulheres na pós-menopausa, atendidas em dois ambulatórios públicos da cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil. A obesidade foi determinada segundo o índice de massa corporal (IMC > 30,0) e segundo o percentual de gordura corporal (%GC > 37%). A obesidade abdominal foi determinada pela relação cintura-quadril (RCQ > 0,85). RESULTADOS: a prevalência de obesidade global foi 34,4% (segundo o IMC) e de 40,1% (segundo o %GC). A prevalência de obesidade abdominal foi de 73,8%. Grande parte das entrevistadas referiu até sete anos de instrução formal (47,8%), foi considerada sedentária ou insuficientemente ativa (52,3%) e nunca tinha utilizado THM oral ou tinha utilizado por menos de 12 meses (72,0%). Foi constatada maior prevalência de obesidade global no grupo de mulheres sedentárias ou insuficientemente ativas e no grupo de não usuárias de THM (p<0,05). Quanto à obesidade abdominal, fator de risco para doenças cardiovasculares (DCV), apenas o grau de instrução mostrou-se associado à RCQ (p<0,05). CONCLUSÕES: mulheres após a menopausa, fisicamente ativas e usuárias de THM exibiram menor prevalência de obesidade global, porém a prevalência de obesidade abdominal foi alta e ainda maior nas mulheres com menor grau de instrução

Microbiological indicators for the assessment of performance in the hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) system in meat lasagna production

The HACCP system is being increasingly used to ensure food safety. This study investigated the validation of the control measures technique in order to establish performance indicators of this HACCP system in the manufacturing process of Lasagna Bolognese (meat lasagna). Samples were collected along the manufacturing process as a whole, before and after the CCPs. The following microorganism s indicator (MIs) was assessed: total mesophile and faecal coliform counts. The same MIs were analyzed in the final product, as well as, the microbiological standards required by the current legislation. A significant reduction in the total mesophile count was observed after cooking (p < 0.001). After storage, there was a numerical, however non-significant change in the MI count. Faecal coliform counts were also significantly reduced (p < 0.001) after cooking. We were able to demonstrate that the HACCP system allowed us to meet the standards set by both, the company and the Brazilian regulations, proved by the reduction in the established indicators

GLOBAL SOLUTIONS FOR ABSTRACT FUNCTIONAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH NONLOCAL CONDITIONS

In this paper we study the existence of global solutions for a class of abstract functional differential equation with nonlocal conditions. An application is considered.

Global gene expression under nitrogen starvation in Xylella fastidiosa: contribution of the sigma(54) regulon

Background: Xylella fastidiosa, a Gram-negative fastidious bacterium, grows in the xylem of several plants causing diseases such as citrus variegated chlorosis. As the xylem sap contains low concentrations of amino acids and other compounds, X. fastidiosa needs to cope with nitrogen limitation in its natural habitat. Results: In this work, we performed a whole-genome microarray analysis of the X. fastidiosa nitrogen starvation response. A time course experiment (2, 8 and 12 hours) of cultures grown in defined medium under nitrogen starvation revealed many differentially expressed genes, such as those related to transport, nitrogen assimilation, amino acid biosynthesis, transcriptional regulation, and many genes encoding hypothetical proteins. In addition, a decrease in the expression levels of many genes involved in carbon metabolism and energy generation pathways was also observed. Comparison of gene expression profiles between the wild type strain and the rpoN null mutant allowed the identification of genes directly or indirectly induced by nitrogen starvation in a sigma(54)-dependent manner. A more complete picture of the sigma(54) regulon was achieved by combining the transcriptome data with an in silico search for potential sigma(54)-dependent promoters, using a position weight matrix approach. One of these sigma(54)-predicted binding sites, located upstream of the glnA gene (encoding glutamine synthetase), was validated by primer extension assays, confirming that this gene has a sigma(54)-dependent promoter. Conclusions: Together, these results show that nitrogen starvation causes intense changes in the X. fastidiosa transcriptome and some of these differentially expressed genes belong to the sigma(54) regulon.

Global gene expression profile in myelodysplastic syndromes using SAGE

The molecular pathogenesis of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is poorly understood. In order to expand our knowledge of genetic defects in MDS, we determined the overall profile of genes expressed in bone marrow from patients with refractory anemia with excess blasts ( RAEB) by serial analysis of gene expression ( SAGE). The present report describes a partial transcriptome of RAEB bone marrow derived from 56,694 sequenced tags that provides information about expressed gene products. This is the first attempt to determine an overall profile of gene expression specifically in RAEB at diagnosis using SAGE, which should be useful in the understanding of the physiopathology of MDS and in identifying the genes involved.

Sequential analysis of global gene expression profiles in immature and in vitro matured bovine oocytes: potential molecular markers of oocyte maturation

Background: Without intensive selection, the majority of bovine oocytes submitted to in vitro embryo production (IVP) fail to develop to the blastocyst stage. This is attributed partly to their maturation status and competences. Using the Affymetrix GeneChip Bovine Genome Array, global mRNA expression analysis of immature (GV) and in vitro matured (IVM) bovine oocytes was carried out to characterize the transcriptome of bovine oocytes and then use a variety of approaches to determine whether the observed transcriptional changes during IVM was real or an artifact of the techniques used during analysis. Results: 8489 transcripts were detected across the two oocyte groups, of which similar to 25.0% (2117 transcripts) were differentially expressed (p < 0.001); corresponding to 589 over-expressed and 1528 under-expressed transcripts in the IVM oocytes compared to their immature counterparts. Over expression of transcripts by IVM oocytes is particularly interesting, therefore, a variety of approaches were employed to determine whether the observed transcriptional changes during IVM were real or an artifact of the techniques used during analysis, including the analysis of transcript abundance in oocytes in vitro matured in the presence of a-amanitin. Subsets of the differentially expressed genes were also validated by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and the gene expression data was classified according to gene ontology and pathway enrichment. Numerous cell cycle linked (CDC2, CDK5, CDK8, HSPA2, MAPK14, TXNL4B), molecular transport (STX5, STX17, SEC22A, SEC22B), and differentiation (NACA) related genes were found to be among the several over-expressed transcripts in GV oocytes compared to the matured counterparts, while ANXA1, PLAU, STC1and LUM were among the over-expressed genes after oocyte maturation. Conclusion: Using sequential experiments, we have shown and confirmed transcriptional changes during oocyte maturation. This dataset provides a unique reference resource for studies concerned with the molecular mechanisms controlling oocyte meiotic maturation in cattle, addresses the existing conflicting issue of transcription during meiotic maturation and contributes to the global goal of improving assisted reproductive technology.