IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

Global perturbation of the marine Ca isotopic composition in the aftermath of the Marinoan global glaciation

Ca isotopic compositions of Marinoan post-glacial carbonate successions in Brazil and NW Canada were measured Both basal dolostones display delta(44/40)Ca values between 1 and 0 7 parts per thousand overlying limestones show a negative Ca isotope excursion to values around 0 1 parts per thousand and delta(44/40)Ca values rapidly increase up-section to near 2 0 parts per thousand In the Brazilian successions those high delta(44/40)Ca values rapidly decrease and stabilize to values between 0 6 and 0 9 parts per thousand These Ca isotope secular variation trends are unlike those of Sturtian post-glacial carbonate successions but similar to those of Marinoan post-glacial carbonate successions in Namibia suggesting that the perturbation of the marine Ca cycle was global This recommends Ca isotope stratigraphy as a tool to correlate Neoproterozoic post-glacial carbonate successions worldwide While the lowermost and uppermost strata have delta(44/40)Ca values typical of Phanerozoic carbonates the extremes 0 1 and 2 0 parts per thousand have not been thus far reported for other marine carbonates These extreme values suggest a short-lived non-actualistic perturbation in the marine Ca cycle Simple box modelling of the Marinoan post-glacial marine Ca cycle can reproduce the extreme values only by postulating a two-step process with Ca input initially exceeding Ca removal trough carbonate precipitation followed by precipitation overtaking a decreased Ca Input (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved