Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

DNA alters the bilayer structure of cationic lipid diC14-amidine: A spin label study

Cationic lipids-DNA complexes (lipoplexes) have been used for delivery of nucleic acids into cells in vitro and in vivo. Despite the fact that, over the last decade, significant progress in the understanding of the cellular pathways and mechanisms involved in lipoplexes-mediated gene transfection have been achieved, a convincing relationship between the structure of lipoplexes and their in vivo and in vitro transfection activity is still missing. How does DNA affect the lipid packing and what are the consequences for transfection efficiency is the point we want to address here. We investigated the bilayer organization in cationic liposomes by electron spin resonance (ESR). Phospholipids spin labeled at the 5th and 16th carbon atoms were incorporated into the DNA/diC14-amidine complex. Our data demonstrate that electrostatic interactions involved in the formation of DNA-cationic lipid complex modify the packing of the cationic lipid membrane. DNA rigidifies the amidine fluid bilayer and fluidizes the amidine rigid bilayer just below the gel-fluid transition temperature. These effects were not observed with single nucleotides and are clearly related to the repetitive charged motif present in the DNA chain and not to a charge-charge interaction. These modifications of the initial lipid packing of the cationic lipid may reorient its cellular pathway towards different routes. A better knowledge of the cationic lipid packing before and after interaction with DNA may therefore contribute to the design of lipoplexes capable to reach specific cellular targets. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.