Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

Frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil modulated by interannual and interdecadal variability

The frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil is impacted by Ell Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, especially in austral spring. There are two areas in which this impact is more significant: one is on the coast, where extreme events are more frequent during El Nino (EN) and the other one extends inland, where extreme events increase during EN and decrease during La Nina (LN). Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with severe rainfall in those areas are similar (opposite) to anomalous patterns characteristic of EN (LN) episodes, indicating why increase (decrease) of extreme events in EN (LN) episodes is favoured. The most recurrent precipitation patterns during extreme rainfall events in each of these areas are disclosed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evidence the separation between extreme events in these areas: a severe precipitation event generally does not occur simultaneously in the coast and inland, although they may Occur inland and in the coastal region in sequence. Although EN predominantly enhances extreme rainfall, there are EN years in which fewer severe events occur than the average of neutral years, and also the enhancement of extreme rainfall is not uniform for different EN episodes, because the interdecadal non-ENSO variability also modulates significantly the frequency of extreme events in Southern Brazil. The inland region, which is more affected, shows increase (decrease) of extreme rainfall in association with the negative (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with the negative (positive) phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Variability and with the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Variability. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Characterization of Caulobacter crescentus response to low temperature and identification of genes involved in freezing resistance

Free-living bacteria must respond to a wide range of temperature changes, and have developed specific mechanisms to survive in extreme environments. In this work we describe a remarkable resistance of mesophilic bacterium Caulobacter crescentus to several cycles of freezing at -80 degrees C, which was able to grow at low temperatures. Exponentially growing cells and late stationary-phase cells presented higher freezing resistance at both -20 and -80 degrees C than early stationary-phase cells. Cryotolerance was observed when log-phase cultures grown at 30 degrees C were preincubated at 5, 15 or 20 degrees C before freezing at -20 degrees C. A transposon library was screened to identify mutants sensitive to freezing at -80 degrees C and three strains presenting < 10% survival were isolated. Identification of genes disrupted in each mutant showed that they encoded an AddA family DNA helicase, a DEAD/DEAH box RNA helicase and a putative RND (resistance, nodulation, cell division) efflux system component. These strains showed longer generation times than wild-type cells when growing at 15 degrees C, with the RNA helicase mutant presenting a severe growth defect. These analyses suggest that the singular intrinsic resistance to freezing of C. crescentus is in fact a consequence of several independent traits, especially the maintenance of a proper degree of supercoiling of nucleic acids.

Dating coeval mafic magmatism and ultrahigh temperature metamorphism in the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex, Central Brazil

Dating granulites has always been of great interest because they represent one of the most extreme settings of an orogen. Owing to the resilience of zircon, even in such severe environments, the link between P-T conditions and geological time is possible. However, a challenge to geochronologists is to define whether the growth of new zircon is related to pre- or post-P-T peak conditions and which processes might affect the (re) crystallization. In this context, the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex, a high-grade complex in central Brazil with ultrahigh temperature (UHT) granulites, may provide valuable information within this topic. The Anapolis-Itaucu Complex (AIC) includes ortho- and paragranulites, locally presenting UHT mineral assemblages, with igneous zircon ages varying between 760 and 650 Ma and metamorphic overgrowths dated at around 650-640 Ma. Also common in the Anapolis-Itaucu Complex are layered mafic-ultramafic complexes metamorphosed under high-grade conditions. This article presents the first geological and geochronological constraints of three of these layered complexes within the AIC, the Damolandia, Taquaral and Goianira-Trindade complexes. U-Pb (LA-MC-ICPMS, SHRIMP and ID-TIMS) zircon analyses reveal a spread of concordant ages spanning within an age interval of similar to 80 Ma with an ""upper"" intercept age of similar to 670 Ma. Under cathodoluminescence imaging, these crystals show partially preserved primary sector zoning, as well as internal textures typical of alteration during high-grade metamorphism, such as inward-moving boundaries. Zircon grains reveal homogeneous initial (176)Hf/(177)Hf values in distinct crystal-scale domains in all samples. Moreover. Hf isotopic ratios show correlation neither with U-Pb ages nor with Th/U ratios, suggesting that zircon grains crystallized during a single growth event. It is suggested, therefore, that the observed spread of concordant U-Pb ages may be related to a memory effect due to coupled dissolution-reprecipitation process during high grade metamorphism. Therefore, understanding the emplacement and metamorphism of this voluminous mafic magmatism is crucial as it may represent an additional heat source for the development of the ultrahigh temperature paragenesis recorded in the paragranulites. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.