Kinematic parameters and membership probabilities of open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue

Aims. We derive lists of proper-motions and kinematic membership probabilities for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the zone of the Bordeaux PM2000 proper motion catalogue (+ 11 degrees <= delta <= + 18 degrees). We test different parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions and select the most successful one. In the light of those results, we analyse some objects individually. Methods. We differenciate between cluster and field member stars, and assign membership probabilities, by applying a new and fully automated method based on both parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions, and genetic algorithm optimization heuristics associated with a derivative-based hill climbing algorithm for the likelihood optimization. Results. We present a catalogue comprising kinematic parameters and associated membership probability lists for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue region. We note that this is the first determination of proper motions for five open clusters. We confirm the non-existence of two kinematic populations in the region of 15 previously suspected non-existent objects.

Jensen inequalities for tunneling probabilities in complex systems

The Jensen theorem is used to derive inequalities for semiclassical tunneling probabilities for systems involving several degrees of freedom. These Jensen inequalities are used to discuss several aspects of sub-barrier heavy-ion fusion reactions. The inequality hinges on general convexity properties of the tunneling coefficient calculated with the classical action in the classically forbidden region.

Collision probabilities in the rarefaction fan of asymmetric exclusion processes

We consider the one-dimensional asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) in which particles jump to the right at rate p is an element of (1/2, 1.] and to the left at rate 1 - p, interacting by exclusion. In the initial state there is a finite region such that to the left of this region all sites are occupied and to the right of it all sites are empty. Under this initial state, the hydrodynamical limit of the process converges to the rarefaction fan of the associated Burgers equation. In particular suppose that the initial state has first-class particles to the left of the origin, second-class particles at sites 0 and I, and holes to the right of site I. We show that the probability that the two second-class particles eventually collide is (1 + p)/(3p), where a collision occurs when one of the particles attempts to jump over the other. This also corresponds to the probability that two ASEP processes. started from appropriate initial states and coupled using the so-called ""basic coupling,"" eventually reach the same state. We give various other results about the behaviour of second-class particles in the ASEP. In the totally asymmetric case (p = 1) we explain a further representation in terms of a multi-type particle system, and also use the collision result to derive the probability of coexistence of both clusters in a two-type version of the corner growth model.

Colonization and extinction of land planarians (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida) in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest regrowth remnant

Long-term assessments of species assemblages are valuable tools for detecting species ecological preferences and their dispersal tracks, as well as for assessing the possible effects of alien species on native communities. Here we report a 50-year-long study on population dynamics of the four species of land flatworms (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida, Terricola) that have colonized or become extinct in a 70-year-old Atlantic Forest regrowth remnant through the period 1955-2006. On the one hand, the two initially most abundant species, which are native to the study site, Notogynaphallia ernesti and Geoplana multicolor have declined over decades and at present do not exist in the forest remnant. The extinction of these species is most likely related with their preference for open vegetation areas, which presently do not exist in the forest remnant. On the other hand, the neotropical Geoplaninae 1 and the exotic Endeavouria septemlineata were detected in the forest only very recently. The long-term study allowed us to conclude that Geoplaninae 1 was introduced into the study area, although it is only known from the study site. Endeavouria septemlineata, an active predator of the exotic giant African snail, is originally known from Hawaii. This land flatworm species was observed repeatedly in Brazilian anthropogenic areas, and this is the first report of the species in relatively well preserved native forest, which may be evidence of an ongoing adaptive process. Monitoring of its geographic spread and its ecological role would be a good practice for preventing potential damaging effects, since it also feeds on native mollusk fauna, as we observed in lab conditions.

The role of predator overlap in the robustness and extinction of a four species predator-prey network

Predators and preys often form species networks with asymmetric patterns of interaction. We study the dynamics of a four species network consisting of two weakly connected predator-prey pairs. We focus our analysis on the effects of the cross interaction between the predator of the first pair and the prey of the second pair. This is an example where the predator overlap, which is the proportion of predators that a given prey shares with other preys, is not uniform across the network due to asymmetries in patterns of interaction. We explore the behavior of the system under different interaction strengths and study the dynamics of survival and extinction. In particular, we consider situations in which the four species have initial populations lower than their long-term equilibrium, simulating catastrophic situations in which their abundances are reduced due to human action or environmental change. We show that, under these reduced initial conditions, and depending on the strength of the cross interaction, the populations tend to oscillate before re-equilibrating, disturbing the community equilibrium and sometimes reaching values that are only a small fraction of the equilibrium population, potentially leading to their extinction. We predict that, contrary to one`s intuition, the most likely scenario is the extinction of the less predated preys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE REINTRODUCTION AND RECOVERY OF THE ALAGOAS CURASSOW MITU MITU (LINNAEUS, 1766) FROM EXTINCTION USING A POTENTIALLY HYBRID CAPTIVE STOCK

The Alagoas Curassow Mitu mitu is considered extinct in the wild. Since 1979, two females and a male caught in the wild have bred successfully in captivity, and, in 1990, hybridizations between M. mitu and Razor-billed Mitu M. tuberosum were performed. By June 2008, there were around 130 living birds in two different aviaries. We sequenced two regions of the mitochondrial DNA of both captive stocks of Alagoas Curassows. We unequivocally identified hybrids that have haplotype typical of M. tuberosum. However, unless the original studbook can be recovered there is no confident way to discriminate ""pure"" M. mitu birds for breeding and reintroduction purposes. Allied with morphological data gathered in an independent study, we suggest that conservation actions need to focus on specimens with diagnostic phenotypic characters of M. mitu, and avoid birds with mitochondria, genetic contribution of M. tuberosum. Although we have detected low levels of genetic variability among captive birds, the steady increase of the captive population suggests that inbreeding depression and hybridization are not a reproductive hindrance. Reintroduction of some of these potential hybrid birds in the original area of occurrence of the Alagoas Curassow may be the only hope to fill in the ecological niche left vacant. An educational program involving local communities to conserve future reintroduction of curassows and their restored habitat is highly recommended. Accepted 12 November 2009.

A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.

Emergence and loss of assortative mating in sympatric speciation

We have studied an agent model which presents the emergence of sexual barriers through the onset of assortative mating, a condition that might lead to sympatric speciation. In the model, individuals are characterized by two traits, each determined by a single locus A or B. Heterozygotes on A are penalized by introducing an adaptive difference from homozygotes. Two niches are available. Each A homozygote is adapted to one of the niches. The second trait, called the marker trait has no bearing on the fitness. The model includes mating preferences, which are inherited from the mother and subject to random variations. A parameter controlling recombination probabilities of the two loci is also introduced. We study the phase diagram by means of simulations, in the space of parameters (adaptive difference, carrying capacity, recombination probability). Three phases are found, characterized by (i) assortative mating, (ii) extinction of one of the A alleles and (iii) Hardy-Weinberg like equilibrium. We also make perturbations of these phases to see how robust they are. Assortative mating can be gained or lost with changes that present hysteresis loops, showing the resulting equilibrium to have partial memory of the initial state and that the process of going from a polymorphic panmictic phase to a phase where assortative mating acts as sexual barrier can be described as a first-order transition. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An extinction-survival-type phase transition in the probabilistic cellular automaton p182-q200

We investigate the critical behaviour of a probabilistic mixture of cellular automata (CA) rules 182 and 200 (in Wolfram`s enumeration scheme) by mean-field analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that as we switch off one CA and switch on the other by the variation of the single parameter of the model, the probabilistic CA (PCA) goes through an extinction-survival-type phase transition, and the numerical data indicate that it belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour. The PCA displays a characteristic stationary density profile and a slow, diffusive dynamics close to the pure CA 200 point that we discuss briefly. Remarks on an interesting related stochastic lattice gas are addressed in the conclusions.

Efficient solutions to factored MDPs with imprecise transition probabilities

When modeling real-world decision-theoretic planning problems in the Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework, it is often impossible to obtain a completely accurate estimate of transition probabilities. For example, natural uncertainty arises in the transition specification due to elicitation of MOP transition models from an expert or estimation from data, or non-stationary transition distributions arising from insufficient state knowledge. In the interest of obtaining the most robust policy under transition uncertainty, the Markov Decision Process with Imprecise Transition Probabilities (MDP-IPs) has been introduced to model such scenarios. Unfortunately, while various solution algorithms exist for MDP-IPs, they often require external calls to optimization routines and thus can be extremely time-consuming in practice. To address this deficiency, we introduce the factored MDP-IP and propose efficient dynamic programming methods to exploit its structure. Noting that the key computational bottleneck in the solution of factored MDP-IPs is the need to repeatedly solve nonlinear constrained optimization problems, we show how to target approximation techniques to drastically reduce the computational overhead of the nonlinear solver while producing bounded, approximately optimal solutions. Our results show up to two orders of magnitude speedup in comparison to traditional ""flat"" dynamic programming approaches and up to an order of magnitude speedup over the extension of factored MDP approximate value iteration techniques to MDP-IPs while producing the lowest error of any approximation algorithm evaluated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Excited Electronic States, Transition Probabilities, and Radiative Lifetimes of CAs: A Theoretical Contribution and Challenge to Experimentalists

High-level CASSCF/MRCI calculations with a quintuple-zeta quality basis set are reported by characterizing for the first time a manifold of electronic states of the CAs radical yet to be investigated experimentally. Along with the potential energy curves and the associated spectroscopic constants, the dipole moment functions for selected electronic states as well as the transition dipole moment functions for the most relevant electronic transitions are also presented. Estimates of radiative transition probabilities and lifetimes complement this investigation, which also assesses the effect of spin-orbit interaction on the A (2)Pi state. Whenever pertinent, comparisons of similarities and differences with the isovalent CN and CP radicals are made.

Inserção de graduados em fonoaudiologia de uma universidade pública em programas de pós-graduação

OBJETIVO: caracterizar a inserção de egressos do Curso de Fonoaudiologia da Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) - Marília, em Programas de Pós-Graduação (PPG) Stricto Sensu brasileiros. MÉTODO: foram utilizadas listas de graduados e Curriculum Vitae do egresso e do orientador. RESULTADOS: dos 537 formados, 16,57% cursaram/estavam cursando PPG e destes, 98,88% em mestrado e 37,08% também em doutorado. Na grande área de conhecimento, 50% dos egressos de mestrado vincularam-se predominantemente a programas em Ciências da Saúde, 31,80% em Ciências Humanas e 13,64% em Linguística, Letras e Artes. No doutorado, 33, 33% em Ciências Humanas, 30,30% em Ciências da Saúde e em Linguística, Letras e Artes. Quanto à área de conhecimento, predominou a vinculação, no mestrado, de 30,68% em Fonoaudiologia, 28,41% em Educação, 13,64% em Linguística e 9,09% em Medicina I; e, no doutorado, de 33,33% em Educação, 30,30% em Linguística e 9,09% em Fonoaudiologia; 55,68% dissertações e 51,52% teses focalizaram a linguagem. A UNESP predominou com 39,77% no mestrado e 48,48% no doutorado. Predominou a vinculação a Programas com conceito 4 para 52,27% dos egressos do mestrado e 45,45% do doutorado. Quando constou a informação (55,68%), todos receberam fomento. O Teste de Razão de Verossimilhança não indicou diferenças significativas dos percentuais obtidos entre o mestrado e o doutorado. CONCLUSÃO: os resultados superaram os apresentados para o mesmo Estado, mostraram a característica interdisciplinar da Ciência Fonoaudiológica e o predomínio de temática em linguagem.

Aves da Estação Ecológica de Itirapina, estado de São Paulo, Brasil

O cerrado é um dos biomas mais ameaçados no mundo, apresentando algumas das maiores taxas de destruição causadas principalmente pela agropecuária. Poucos estudos têm avaliado a diversidade local de aves no cerrado, especialmente em áreas marginais desse bioma. A Estação Ecológica de Itirapina (EEI) contém um dos últimos remanescentes de campos naturais e cerrados do estado de São Paulo. Um levantamento das aves desta unidade de conservação, feito tanto por observações casuais como sistemáticas entre 1998 e 2007, e complementado por revisão de literatura, revelou que 231 espécies apresentaram ocorrência recente na área. Desse total, 38 espécies (16,4%) encontram-se na lista de espécies ameaçadas para o estado de São Paulo e/ou são endêmicas do Cerrado, um alto número quando comparado com outras áreas de cerrados paulistas ou mesmo em relação ao Brasil Central. Tal fato reforça a importância da EEI em relação à conservação da avifauna e demonstra que a mesma está mantendo sua função de conservar a biodiversidade. Adicionalmente, ao longo dos 10 anos de estudo foram detectadas várias ameaças à EEI, e neste sentido são recomendadas aqui algumas sugestões de manejo que consideramos essenciais para essa unidade de conservação manter ou mesmo aumentar sua diversidade de aves.

PENCALC: a program for penetrance estimation in autosomal dominant diseases

We present a computer program developed for estimating penetrance rates in autosomal dominant diseases by means of family kinship and phenotype information contained within the pedigrees. The program also determines the exact 95% credibility interval for the penetrance estimate. Both executable (PenCalc for Windows) and web versions (PenCalcWeb) of the software are available. The web version enables further calculations, such as heterozygosity probabilities and assessment of offspring risks for all individuals in the pedigrees. Both programs can be accessed and down-loaded freely at the home-page address http://www.ib.usp.br/~otto/software.htm.

Mudanças no Código Florestal e seu impacto na ecologia e diversidade dos mamíferos no Brasil

Os ecossistemas florestais do Brasil abrigam um dos mais altos níveis de diversidade de mamíferos da Terra, e boa parte dessa diversidade se encontra nas áreas legalmente protegidas em áreas de domínio privado. As reservas legais (RLs) e áreas de proteção permanente (APPs) representam estratégias importantes para a proteção e manutenção dessa diversidade. Mudanças propostas no Código Florestal certamente trarão efeitos irreversíveis para a diversidade de mamíferos no Brasil. Os mamíferos apresentam papéis-chave nos ecossistemas, atuando como polinizadores e dispersores de sementes. A extinção local de algumas espécies pode reduzir os serviços ecológicos nas RLs e APPs. Outra consequência grave da redução de áreas de vegetação nativa caso a mudança no Código Florestal seja aprovada será o aumento no risco de transmição de doenças, trazendo sério problemas a saúde pública no Brasil.