The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Analyzing the connectivity between regions of interest: An approach based on cluster Granger causality for NRI data analysis

The identification, modeling, and analysis of interactions between nodes of neural systems in the human brain have become the aim of interest of many studies in neuroscience. The complex neural network structure and its correlations with brain functions have played a role in all areas of neuroscience, including the comprehension of cognitive and emotional processing. Indeed, understanding how information is stored, retrieved, processed, and transmitted is one of the ultimate challenges in brain research. In this context, in functional neuroimaging, connectivity analysis is a major tool for the exploration and characterization of the information flow between specialized brain regions. In most functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, connectivity analysis is carried out by first selecting regions of interest (ROI) and then calculating an average BOLD time series (across the voxels in each cluster). Some studies have shown that the average may not be a good choice and have suggested, as an alternative, the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the principal eigen-time series from the ROI(s). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called cluster Granger analysis (CGA) to study connectivity between ROIs. The main aim of this method was to employ multiple eigen-time series in each ROI to avoid temporal information loss during identification of Granger causality. Such information loss is inherent in averaging (e.g., to yield a single ""representative"" time series per ROI). This, in turn, may lead to a lack of power in detecting connections. The proposed approach is based on multivariate statistical analysis and integrates PCA and partial canonical correlation in a framework of Granger causality for clusters (sets) of time series. We also describe an algorithm for statistical significance testing based on bootstrapping. By using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the proposed approach outperforms conventional Granger causality analysis (i.e., using representative time series extracted by signal averaging or first principal components estimation from ROIs). The usefulness of the CGA approach in real fMRI data is illustrated in an experiment using human faces expressing emotions. With this data set, the proposed approach suggested the presence of significantly more connections between the ROIs than were detected using a single representative time series in each ROI. (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Importance of background rates of disease in assessment of vaccine safety during mass immunisation with pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccines

Because of the advent of a new influenza A H1N1. strain, many countries have begun mass immunisation programmes. Awareness of the background rates of possible adverse events will be a crucial part of assessment of possible vaccine safety concerns and will help to separate legitimate safety concerns from events that are temporally associated with but not caused by vaccination. We identified background rates of selected medical events for several countries. Rates of disease events varied by age, sex, method of ascertainment, and geography. Highly visible health conditions, such as Guillain-Barre syndrome, spontaneous abortion, or even death, will occur in coincident temporal association with novel influenza vaccination. On the basis of the reviewed data, if a cohort of 10 million individuals was vaccinated in the UK, 21.5 cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome and 5.75 cases of sudden death would be expected to occur within 6 weeks of vaccination as coincident background cases. In female vaccinees in the USA, 86.3 cases of optic neuritis per 10 million population would be expected within 6 weeks of vaccination. 397 per 1 million vaccinated pregnant women would be predicted to have a spontaneous abortion within 1 day of vaccination.

Orbitofrontal cortex gray matter volumes in bipolar disorder patients: a region-of-interest MRI study

Objectives: Functional and postmortem studies suggest that the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is involved in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD). This anatomical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study examined whether BD patients have smaller OFC gray matter volumes compared to healthy comparison subjects (HC). Methods: Twenty-eight BD patients were compared to 28 age- and gender-matched HC. Subjects underwent a 1.5T MRI with 3D spoiled gradient recalled acquisition. Total OFC and medial and lateral subdivisions were manually traced by a blinded examiner. Images were segmented and gray matter volumes were calculated using an automated method. Results: Analysis of covariance, with intracranial volume as covariate, showed that BD patients and HC did not differ in gray matter volumes of total OFC or its subdivisions. However, total OFC gray matter volume was significantly smaller in depressed patients (n = 10) compared to euthymic patients (n = 18). Moreover, total OFC gray matter volumes were inversely correlated with depressive symptom intensity, as assessed by the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale. OFC gray matter volumes were not related to lithium treatment, age at disease onset, number of episodes, or family history of mood disorders. Conclusions: Our results suggest that abnormal OFC gray matter volumes are not a pervasive characteristic of BD, but may be associated with specific clinical features of the disorder.

MODELLING OF HIGH-PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM IN SYSTEMS OF INTEREST IN THE FOOD ENGINEERING FIELD USING THE PENG-ROBINSON EQUATION OF STATE WITH TWO DIFFERENT MIXING RULES

In this work, thermodynamic models for fitting the phase equilibrium of binary systems were applied, aiming to predict the high pressure phase equilibrium of multicomponent systems of interest in the food engineering field, comparing the results generated by the models with new experimental data and with those from the literature. Two mixing rules were used with the Peng-Robinson equation of state, one with the mixing rule of van der Waals and the other with the composition-dependent mixing rule of Mathias et al. The systems chosen are of fundamental importance in food industries, such as the binary systems CO(2)-limonene, CO(2)-citral and CO(2)-linalool, and the ternary systems CO(2)-Limonene-Citral and CO(2)-Limonene-Linalool, where high pressure phase equilibrium knowledge is important to extract and fractionate citrus fruit essential oils. For the CO(2)-limonene system, some experimental data were also measured in this work. The results showed the high capability of the model using the composition-dependent mixing rule to model the phase equilibrium behavior of these systems.

Network genealogy of 195-bp satellite DNA supports the superimposed hybridization hypothesis of Trypanosoma cruzi evolutionary pattern

Trypanosoma cruzi is highly diverse genetically and has been partitioned into six discrete typing units (DTUs), recently re-named T. cruzi I-VI. Although T. cruzi reproduces predominantly by binary division, accumulating evidence indicates that particular DTUs are the result of hybridization events. Two major scenarios for the origin of the hybrid lineages have been proposed. It is accepted widely that the most heterozygous TcV and TcVI DTUs are the result of genetic exchange between TcII and TcIII strains. On the other hand, the participation of a TcI parental in the current genome structure of these hybrid strains is a matter of debate. Here, sequences of the T. cruzi-specific 195-bp satellite DNA of TcI, TcII, Tat, TcV, and TcVI strains have been used for inferring network genealogies. The resulting genealogy showed a high degree of reticulation, which is consistent with more than one event of hybridization between the Tc DTUs. The data also strongly suggest that Tat is a hybrid with two distinct sets of satellite sequences, and that genetic exchange between TcI and TcII parentals occurred within the pedigree of the TcV and TcVI DTUs. Although satellite DNAs belong to the fast-evolving portion of eukaryotic genomes, in >100 satellite units of nine T. cruzi strains we found regions that display 100% identity. No DTU-specific consensus motifs were identified, inferring species-wide conservation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An empirical evaluation of imputation accuracy for association statistics reveals increased type-I error rates in genome-wide associations

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

Short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the intensive care unit: prognostic factors

Decisions for intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in patients with advanced cancer are complex, and the knowledge of survival rates and prognostic factors are essential to these decisions. Ours objectives were to describe the short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to an ICU due to emergencies and to study the prognostic factors presented at ICU admission that could be associated with hospital mortality. We retrospectively analysed the charts of all patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted over a 1-year period. This gave a study sample of 83 patients. The ICU, hospital, 1-year and 2-year survival rates were 55.4%, 28.9%, 12.0% and 2.4% respectively. Thrombocytopenia (odds ratio 26.2; P = 0.006) and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) (odds ratio 1.09; P = 0.026) were independent factors associated with higher hospital mortality. In conclusion, the survival rates of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the ICU due to emergencies were low, but of the same magnitude as other groups of cancer patients admitted to the ICU. The SAPS II score and thrombocytopenia on admission were associated with higher hospital mortality. The characteristics of the metastatic disease, such as number of organs with metastasis and central nervous system metastasis were not associated with the hospital mortality.

Long-term stability of dentin matrix following treatment with various natural collagen cross-linkers

Objectives: Collagen disorganization is one of the main degradation patterns found in unsuccessful adhesive restorations. The hypothesis of this study was that pretreatment using natural collagen cross-linking agents rich in proanthocyanidin (PA) would improve mechanical properties and stability over time of the dentin collagen and, thus, confer a more resistant and lasting substrate for adhesive restorations. Methods: PA-based extracts, from grape seed (GSE), cocoa seed (CSE), cranberry (CRE), cinnamon (CNE) and acai berry (ACE) were applied over the demineralized dentin. The apparent elastic modulus (E) of the treated dentin collagen was analyzed over a 12 month period. Specimens were immersed in the respective solution and E values were obtained by a micro-flexural test at baseline, 10, 30, 60, 120 and 240 min. Samples were stored in artificial saliva and re-tested after 3, 6 and 12 months. Data was analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey test. Results: GSE and CSE extracts showed a time-dependent effect and were able to improve [240 min (MPa): GSE = 108.96 +/- 56.08: CSE = 59.21 +/- 24.87] and stabilize the E of the organic matrix [12 months (MPa): GSE = 40.91 +/- 19.69; CSE = 42.11 +/- 13.46]. CRE and CNE extracts were able to maintain the E of collagen matrices constant over 12 months [CRE = 11.17 +/- 7.22; CNE = 9.96 +/- 6.11; MPa]. ACE (2.64 +/- 1.22 MPa) and control groups immersed in neat distilled water (1.37 +/- 0.69 MPa) and ethanol-water (0.95 +/- 0.33 MPa) showed no effect over dentin organic matrix and enable their degradation and reduction of mechanical properties. Significance: Some PA-based extracts were capable of improving and stabilizing collagen matrices through exogenous cross-links induction. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the unification of long-term survival models

In this paper we extend the long-term survival model proposed by Chen et al. [Chen, M.-H., Ibrahim, J.G., Sinha, D., 1999. A new Bayesian model for survival data with a surviving fraction. journal of the American Statistical Association 94, 909-919] via the generating function of a real sequence introduced by Feller [Feller, W., 1968. An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, third ed., vol. 1, Wiley, New York]. A direct consequence of this new formulation is the unification of the long-term survival models proposed by Berkson and Gage [Berkson, J., Gage, R.P., 1952. Survival cure for cancer patients following treatment. journal of the American Statistical Association 47, 501-515] and Chen et al. (see citation above). Also, we show that the long-term survival function formulated in this paper satisfies the proportional hazards property if, and only if, the number of competing causes related to the occurrence of an event of interest follows a Poisson distribution. Furthermore, a more flexible model than the one proposed by Yin and Ibrahim [Yin, G., Ibrahim, J.G., 2005. Cure rate models: A unified approach. The Canadian journal of Statistics 33, 559-570] is introduced and, motivated by Feller`s results, a very useful competing index is defined. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coordination dynamics and attentional costs of continuous and discontinuous bimanual circle drawing movements

It has been suggested that the temporal control of rhythmic unimianual movements is different between tasks requiring continuous (e.g., circle drawing) and discontinuous movements (e.g., finger tapping). Specifically, for continuous movements temporal regularities are ail emergent property, whereas for tasks that involve discontinuities timing is ail explicit part of the action goal. The present experiment further investigated the control of continuous and discontinuous movements by comparing the coordination dynamics and attentional demands of bimanual continuous circle drawing with bimanual intermittent circle drawing. The intermittent task required participants to insert a 400 ms pause between each cycle while circling. Using dual-task methodology, 15 right-handed participants performed the two circle drawing tasks, while vocally responding to randomly presented auditory probes. The circle drawing tasks were performed in symmetrical and asymmetrical coordination modes and at movement frequencies of 1 Hz and 1.7 Hz. Intermittent circle drawing exhibited superior spatial and temporal accuracy and stability than continuous circle drawing supporting the hypothesis that the two tasks have different underlying control processes. In terms of attentional cost, probe RT was significantly slower during the intermittent circle drawing task than the continuous circle drawing task across both coordination modes and movement frequencies. Of interest was the finding that in the intermittent circling task reaction time (RT) to probes presented during the pause between cycles did not differ from the RT to probes occurring during the circling movement. The differences in attentional demands between the intermittent and continuous circle drawing tasks may reflect the operation of explicit event timing and implicit emergent timing processes, respectively. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Verification of a mixed high-order accurate DNS code for laminar turbulent transition by the method of manufactured solutions

This paper presents results on a verification test of a Direct Numerical Simulation code of mixed high-order of accuracy using the method of manufactured solutions (MMS). This test is based on the formulation of an analytical solution for the Navier-Stokes equations modified by the addition of a source term. The present numerical code was aimed at simulating the temporal evolution of instability waves in a plane Poiseuille flow. The governing equations were solved in a vorticity-velocity formulation for a two-dimensional incompressible flow. The code employed two different numerical schemes. One used mixed high-order compact and non-compact finite-differences from fourth-order to sixth-order of accuracy. The other scheme used spectral methods instead of finite-difference methods for the streamwise direction, which was periodic. In the present test, particular attention was paid to the boundary conditions of the physical problem of interest. Indeed, the verification procedure using MMS can be more demanding than the often used comparison with Linear Stability Theory. That is particularly because in the latter test no attention is paid to the nonlinear terms. For the present verification test, it was possible to manufacture an analytical solution that reproduced some aspects of an instability wave in a nonlinear stage. Although the results of the verification by MMS for this mixed-order numerical scheme had to be interpreted with care, the test was very useful as it gave confidence that the code was free of programming errors. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Financial leverage and tangibility of assets of Brazilian companies of agribusiness in the post-real plan period

This paper aims to study the relationship between the debt level and the asset structure of Brazilian companies of the agribusiness sector, since it is considered a current and relevant discussion: to evaluate the mechanisms for fund-raising and guarantees. The methodology of Granger`s Causality test and Autoregressive Vectors was used to conduct a comparative analysis, applied to a financial database of companies with open capital of Brazilian agribusiness, in particular the agricultural sector and Fisheries and Food and Beverages in a period of 10 years (1997-2007) from quarterly series available in the database of Economatica(R). The results demonstrated that changes in leverage generate variations in the tangibility of the companies, a fact that can be explained by the large search of funding secured by fiduciary transfer of fixed assets, which facilitates access to credit by business of the Agribusiness sector, increasing the payment time and lowering interest rates.

A synergistic relationship of elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and systolic blood pressure with coronary artery calcification

We sought to evaluate this ""response-to-injury"" hypothesis of atherosclerosis by studying the interaction between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) in predicting the presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in asymptomatic men. We Studied 526 men (46 +/- 7 years of age) referred for electron-beam tomography (EBT) exam. The prevalence of CAC was determined across LDL-C tertiles (low: <115 mg/dl; middle: 115-139 mg/dl high: >= 140 mg/dl) within tertiles of SBP (low: <121 mmHg; middle: 121-130 mmHg; high: >= 131 mmHg). CAC was found in 220 (42%) men. There was no linear trend in the presence of CAC across LDL-C tertiles in the low (p = 0.6 for trend) and middle (p = 0.3 for trend) SBP tertile groups, respectively. In contrast, there was a significant trend for increasing CAC with increasing LDL-C (1st: 44%; 2nd: 49%; 3rd: 83%; p < 0.0001 for trend) in the high SBP tertile group. In multivariate logistic analyses (adjusting for age, smoking, triglyceride levels, HDL-cholesterol levels, body mass index, and fasting glucose levels), the odds ratio for any CAC associated with increasing LDL-C was significantly higher in those with highest SBP levels, whereas no such relationship was observed among men with SBP in the lower two tertiles. An interaction term (LDL-C x SBP) incorporated in the multivariate analyses was statistically significant (p = 0.038). The finding of an interaction between SBP and LDL-C relation to CAC in asymptomatic men support the response-to-injury model of atherogenesis. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.