131 resultados para Epidemiological parameters
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)
Resumo:
Seroprevalence data from a representative population were used to estimate the annual incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR). Retrospective anti-toxoplasma IgG serological analysis was conducted to determine age-dependent seroprevalence, force of infection, average age of acquisition of infection and curve of decay of maternally derived antibodies. Seroprevalence was used to calculate the number of new infections. Toxoplasmosis in pregnant women was estimated by total number of deliveries in a given year as a proxy for the number of pregnancies per year. Toxoplasma seroprevalence was 64.9% in women of childbearing age. Average age of acquisition of toxoplasmosis was 10.74 years. The estimated annual incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis varied from 9.5 to 10.6/1000 births in the studied period. The toxoplasmosis seroprevalence model allowed a good incidence estimation of congenital disease in SPMR compared to other published data, indicating that this mathematical approach is useful in calculating the potential demand of congenital disease due to Toxoplasma gondii in a given community.
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A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.
Resumo:
Since the computer viruses pose a serious problem to individual and corporative computer systems, a lot of effort has been dedicated to study how to avoid their deleterious actions, trying to create anti-virus programs acting as vaccines in personal computers or in strategic network nodes. Another way to combat viruses propagation is to establish preventive policies based on the whole operation of a system that can be modeled with population models, similar to those that are used in epidemiological studies. Here, a modified version of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is presented and how its parameters are related to network characteristics is explained. Then, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated, stability and bifurcation conditions are derived and some numerical simulations are shown. The relations among the model parameters in the several bifurcation conditions allow a network design minimizing viruses risks. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Craniosynostosis syndromes are characterized by premature closure of one or more cranial sutures, associated with other malformations, the most frequent of which are the Crouzon and Apert syndromes. Few studies in the literature have addressed the oral health of these individuals. The purpose of this study was to compare the periodontal status of individuals with Apert, Crouzon, Pfeiffer and Saethre-Chotzen syndromes before toothbrushing and compare the efficiency of plaque removal before and after mechanical toothbrushing. The probing depth, plaque index (according to Löe and O'Leary), clinical attachment level, gingival index (according to Silness and Löe) and amount of keratinized mucosa were evaluated before toothbrushing, and the O'Leary plaque index was assessed before and immediately after toothbrushing, on the same day, in 27 individuals aged 11 to 36 years. There was statistically significant difference in the mean probing depth and clinical attachment level among regions (p=0.00; p=0.01, respectively). The gingival index did not reveal statistically significant differences. With regard to the plaque index, the left region exhibited higher plaque index values than the right and anterior regions. No significant results were found in the analysis of keratinized mucosa. Comparison of the O'Leary plaque index before and after toothbrushing revealed statistically significant difference for all syndromes except for the Pfeiffer syndrome (p<0.05). In conclusion, there was no difference in the periodontal status among individuals with syndromic craniosynostosis. The posterior region was more affected than the anterior region as to the presence of plaque, loss of insertion and probing depth. Individuals with Pfeiffer syndrome exhibited greater toothbrushing efficiency than individuals with the other craniosynostosis syndromes.
Resumo:
Studies evaluating immune function in obese humans and experimental animals indicate that the excess adiposity is associated with impaired in immune responses. Obesity is related to a higher rate of infections and to some types of cancer. Nutritional, metabolic and endocrine factors are implicated in the immunological changes. The adipose tissue directly produces substances with various functions related to immune system. Furthermore, some investigations suggest that certain types of weight reduction strategies can alter the immune function. Nevertheless, long-term studies should be carried out to address whether these changes positively affects the ability of these obese individuals to control infections and tumor development.
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The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of soil characteristics (pH, macro- and micro-nutrients), environmental factors (temperature, humidity, period of the year and time of day of collection) and meteorological conditions (rain, sun, cloud and cloud/rain) on the flavonoid content of leaves of Passiflora incarnata L., Passifloraceae. The total flavonoid contents of leaf samples harvested from plants cultivated or collected under different conditions were quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detection (HPLC-UV/PAD). Chemometric treatment of the data by principal component (PCA) and hierarchic cluster analyses (HCA) showed that the samples did not present a specific classification in relation to the environmental and soil variables studied, and that the environmental variables were not significant in describing the data set. However, the levels of the elements Fe, B and Cu present in the soil showed an inverse correlation with the total flavonoid contents of the leaves of P. incarnata.
Resumo:
The growth parameters and the mortality rates of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Chub mackerel) were studied based on monthly data of frequency of fork length classes obtained from commercial landings off the Peruvian coast from 1996 to 1998. The asymptotic body length and growth rate values obtained by the ELEFAN I (Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) ranged from 40.20 cm to 42.20 cm and from 0.38 to 0.39, respectively. The oscillation amplitude was 0.60; the Winter point values varied from 0.50 to 0.60 and the performance index from 2.79 to 2.84. The total mortality rate of the Chub mackerel obtained by the linearized catch curve oscillated between 1.68 and 3.35. The rate of fishing mortality varied from 1.16 to 2.78 and the exploitation rate from 0.68 to 0.84. The annual rate of natural mortality estimated by the Pauly's method ranged from 0.52 to 0.53. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the longevity of the Chub mackerel was slightly over seven years.
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Um inquérito de base populacional foi conduzido na população urbana de todas as capitais e do Distrito Federal no Brasil para fornecer informações sobre a prevalência de hepatites virais e fatores de risco, entre 2005 e 2009. Este artigo descreve o delineamento e a metodologia do estudo que envolveu a população com idade entre 5 e 19 anos para hepatite A e 10 a 69 anos para hepatite B e C. As entrevistas e amostras de sangue foram obtidas através de visitas domiciliares e a amostra selecionada a partir de uma amostragem estratificada em múltiplos estágios (por conglomerado) com igual probabilidade para cada domínio de estudo (região e faixa etária). Nacionalmente, 19.280 residências e ~31.000 indivíduos foram selecionados. O tamanho da amostra foi suficiente para detectar uma prevalência em torno de 0,1% e para avaliar os fatores de risco por região. A metodologia apresentou-se viável para distinguir entre diferentes padrões epidemiológicos da hepatite A, B e C. Estes dados serão de valia para a avaliação das políticas de vacinação e para o desenho de estratégias de controle.
Resumo:
The aims of this study were to carry out a serological survey of canine leishmaniasis and identify the phlebotomine fauna in the urban area of Bonito, Mato Grosso do Sul. The serological survey was conducted on a sample of 303 dogs, by means of the indirect immunofluorescence test. Phlebotomines were captured using automated light traps. The serological survey found that 30% of the dogs were seropositive, both from the center and from all districts of the town. A total of 2,772 specimens of phlebotomines were caught and the species most found was Lutzomyia longipalpis (90.4%), which corroborated its role as the vector of for canine visceral leishmaniasis in the region. Phlebotomines of the species Bichromomyia flaviscutellata (the main vector for Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis) and Nyssomyia whitmani (the vector for Leishmania (Viannia) brasiliensis) were also caught. The findings indicate the need for continuous epidemiological surveillance, with attention towards diminishing the vector breeding sites and the transmission of these diseases in that region.
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A study was carried out in the area of influence of the Porto Primavera Hydroelectric Power Station, in western São Paulo State, to investigate ecological and epidemiological aspects of malaria in the area and monitor the profile of the anopheline populations following the environmental changes brought about by the construction of the lake. Mosquitoes captured were analyzed by standardized indicator species analysis (ISA) before and during different flooding phases (253 m and 257 m elevations). The local human population was studied by means of parasitological (thin/thick blood smears), molecular (PCR) and serological tests. Serological tests consisted of Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) with synthetic peptides of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) from classic Plasmodium vivax, P. vivax variants (VK247 and "vivax-like"), P. malariae and P. falciparum and Indirect Immunofluorescence Assay (IFA) with asexual forms of P. vivax, P. malariae and P. falciparum. The results of the entomological survey indicated that, although the Anopheles darlingi population increased after the flooding, the population density remained very low. No malaria, parasite infection or DNA was detected in the inhabitants of the study area. However, there was a low frequency of antibodies against asexual forms and a significant prevalence of antibodies against P. vivax, P. vivax variants, P. falciparum and P. malariae; the presence of these antibodies may result from recent or less recent contact with human or simian Plasmodium (a parallel study in the same area revealed the existence of a sylvatic cycle). Nevertheless, these results suggest that, as in other places where malaria is present and potential vectors circulate, the local epidemiological conditions observed could potentially support the transmission of malaria in Porto Primavera Lake if infected individuals are introduced in sufficient numbers. Further studies are required to elucidate the phenomena described in this paper.
Resumo:
Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction plays an important role on heart failure progression. In order to obtain additional reference values of left ventricular diastolic parameters and investigate influence of common variables, peak E wave (peak E), peak A wave (peak A), E/A ratio (E/A), E wave deceleration time (EDT) and isovolumic relaxation time (IRVT) were studied in 40 clinically healthy dogs, by pulsed wave Doppler. The following values were obtained: peak E = 0.747 ± 0.117 m/s, peak A = 0.487 ± 0.062 m/s, E/A = 1.533 ± 0.198, EDT = 88.7 ± 9.2 ms and IRVT = 0.080 ± 0.009 s. Some parameters were influenced by heart rate (peak E, peak A and IRVT), by age (peak A and E/A) and by body weight (TRIV). Gender influence was absent. Values obtained can be used as reference for canine specimens but its interpretation should consider on the influence of related variables.
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FAPESP, CNPq, CAPES
Resumo:
Yerba mate´ (Ilex paraguariensis) is rich in polyphenols, especially chlorogenic acids. Evidence suggests that dietary polyphenols could play a role in glucose absorption and metabolism. The aim of this study was to evaluate the antidiabetic properties of yerba mate´ extract in alloxan-induced diabetic Wistar rats. Animals (n ) 41) were divided in four groups: nondiabetic control (NDC, n=11), and diabetic yerba maté (DY, n = 10). The intervention consisted in the administration of yerba mate´ extract in a 1 g extract/ kg body weight dose for 28 days; controls received saline solution only. There were no significant differences in serum glucose, insulin, and hepatic glucose-6-phosphatase activity between the groups that ingested yerba maté extract (NDY and DY) and the controls (NDC and DC). However, the intestinal SGLT1 gene expression was significantly lower in animals that received yerba maté both in upper (p = 0.007) and middle (p < 0.001) small intestine. These results indicate that bioactive compounds present in yerba maté might be capable of interfering in glucose absorption, by decreasing SGLT1 expression
Resumo:
A combination of trajectory sensitivity method and master-slave synchronization was proposed to parameter estimation of nonlinear systems. It was shown that master-slave coupling increases the robustness of the trajectory sensitivity algorithm with respect to the initial guess of parameters. Since synchronization is not a guarantee that the estimation process converges to the correct parameters, a conditional test that guarantees that the new combined methodology estimates the true values of parameters was proposed. This conditional test was successfully applied to Lorenz's and Chua's systems, and the proposed parameter estimation algorithm has shown to be very robust with respect to parameter initial guesses and measurement noise for these examples. Copyright (C) 2009 Elmer P. T. Cari et al.
Resumo:
Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.