A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

A split-pot experiment with sorghum to test a root water uptake partitioning model

Correct modeling of root water uptake partitioning over depth is an important issue in hydrological and crop growth models. Recently a physically based model to describe root water uptake was developed at single root scale and upscaled to the root system scale considering a homogeneous distribution of roots per soil layer. Root water uptake partitioning is calculated over soil layers or compartments as a function of respective soil hydraulic conditions, specifically the soil matric flux potential, root characteristics and a root system efficiency factor to compensate for within-layer root system heterogeneities. The performance of this model was tested in an experiment performed in two-compartment split-pot lysimeters with sorghum plants. The compartments were submitted to different irrigation cycles resulting in contrasting water contents over time. The root system efficiency factor was determined to be about 0.05. Release of water from roots to soil was predicted and observed on several occasions during the experiment; however, model predictions suggested root water release to occur more often and at a higher rate than observed. This may be due to not considering internal root system resistances, thus overestimating the ease with which roots can act as conductors of water. Excluding these erroneous predictions from the dataset, statistical indices show model performance to be of good quality.

The Many Voices of Waly Salomao

This paper discusses the change in the enunciative strategy in Algaravias (1996), written by the Brazilian poet Waly Salomao (1943-2003). This change is specially treated in relation to his previous production which, in my point of view, is re-writed according to the new historical and cultural context.

Long-term safety and efficacy of percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting and coronary artery bypass surgery for multivessel coronary artery disease - A meta-analysis with 5-year patient-level data from the ARTS, ERACI-II, MASS-II, and SoS trials

Background-Randomized trials that studied clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with bare metal stenting versus coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are underpowered to properly assess safety end points like death, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Pooling data from randomized controlled trials increases the statistical power and allows better assessment of the treatment effect in high-risk subgroups. Methods and Results-We performed a pooled analysis of 3051 patients in 4 randomized trials evaluating the relative safety and efficacy of PCI with stenting and CABG at 5 years for the treatment of multivessel coronary artery disease. The primary end point was the composite end point of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction. The secondary end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular accidents, death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and repeat revascularization. We tested for heterogeneities in treatment effect in patient subgroups. At 5 years, the cumulative incidence of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke was similar in patients randomized to PCI with stenting versus CABG (16.7% versus 16.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.27; P = 0.69). Repeat revascularization, however, occurred significantly more frequently after PCI than CABG (29.0% versus 7.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 0.29; P<0.001). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were significantly higher in the PCI than the CABG group (39.2% versus 23.0%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.61; P<0.001). No heterogeneity of treatment effect was found in the subgroups, including diabetic patients and those presenting with 3-vessel disease. Conclusions-In this pooled analysis of 4 randomized trials, PCI with stenting was associated with a long-term safety profile similar to that of CABG. However, as a result of persistently lower repeat revascularization rates in the CABG patients, overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates were significantly lower in the CABG group at 5 years.

A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Recruitment maneuver in experimental acute lung injury: The role of alveolar collapse and edema

Objective: In acute lung injury, recruitment maneuvers have been used to open collapsed lungs and set positive end-expiratory pressure, but their effectiveness may depend on the degree of lung injury. This study uses a single experimental model with different degrees of lung injury and tests the hypothesis that recruitment maneuvers may have beneficial or deleterious effects depending on the severity of acute lung injury. We speculated that recruitment maneuvers may worsen lung mechanical stress in the presence of alveolar edema. Design: Prospective, randomized, controlled experimental study. Setting: University research laboratory. Subjects: Thirty-six Wistar rats randomly divided into three groups (n = 12 per group). Interventions: In the control group, saline was intraperitoneally injected, whereas moderate and severe acute lung injury animals received paraquat intraperitoneally (20 mg/kg [moderate acute lung injury] and 25 mg/kg [severe acute lung injury]). After 24 hrs, animals were further randomized into subgroups (n = 6/each) to be recruited (recruitment maneuvers: 40 cm H(2)O continuous positive airway pressure for 40 secs) or not, followed by 1 hr of protective mechanical ventilation (tidal volume, 6 mL/kg; positive end-expiratory pressure, 5 cm H(2)O). Measurements and Main Results: Only severe acute lung injury caused alveolar edema. The amounts of alveolar collapse were similar in the acute lung injury groups. Static lung elastance, viscoelastic pressure, hyperinflation, lung, liver, and kidney cell apoptosis, and type 3 procollagen and interleukin-6 mRNA expressions in lung tissue were more elevated in severe acute lung injury than in moderate acute lung injury. After recruitment maneuvers, static lung elastance, viscoelastic pressure, and alveolar collapse were lower in moderate acute lung injury than in severe acute lung injury. Recruitment maneuvers reduced interleukin-6 expression with a minor detachment of the alveolar capillary membrane in moderate acute lung injury. In severe acute lung injury, recruitment maneuvers were associated with hyperinflation, increased apoptosis of lung and kidney, expression of type 3 procollagen, and worsened alveolar capillary injury. Conclusions: In the presence of alveolar edema, regional mechanical heterogeneities, and hyperinflation, recruitment maneuvers promoted a modest but consistent increase in inflammatory and fibrogenic response, which may have worsened lung function and potentiated alveolar and renal epithelial injury. (Crit Care Med 2010; 38: 2207-2214)

Low genetic diversities of rabies virus populations within different hosts in Brazil

The low rates of nonsynonymous evolution observed in natural rabies virus (RABV) isolates are suggested to have arisen in association with the structural and functional constraints operating on the virus protein and the infection strategies employed by RABV within infected hosts to avoid strong selection by the immune response. In order to investigate the relationship between the genetic characteristics of RABV populations within hosts and the virus evolution, the present study examined the genetic heterogeneities of RABV populations within naturally infected dogs and foxes in Brazil, as well as those of bat RABV populations that were passaged once in suckling mice. Sequence analyses of complete RABV glycoprotein (G) genes showed that RABV populations within infected hosts were genetically highly homogeneous whether they were infected naturally or experimentally (nucleotide diversities of 0-0.95 x 10(-3)). In addition, amino acid mutations were randomly distributed over the entire region of the G protein, and the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratios (d(N)/d(S)) for the G protein gene were less than 1. These findings suggest that the low genetic diversities of RABV populations within hosts reflect the stabilizing selection operating on the virus, the infection strategies of the virus, and eventually, the evolutionary patterns of the virus. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemics in networks of spatially correlated three-dimensional root-branching structures

Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common susceptible-infected- recovered (`SIR`) epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we show how the spatially correlated branching structures of plant roots affect transmission efficiencies, and hence the invasion criterion, for a soil-borne pathogen as it spreads through ensembles of morphologically complex hosts. We conclude that the inherent heterogeneities in transmissibilities arising from correlations in the degrees of overlap between neighbouring plants render a population of root systems less susceptible to epidemic invasion than a corresponding homogeneous system. Several components of morphological complexity are analysed that contribute to disorder and heterogeneities in the transmissibility of infection. Anisotropy in root shape is shown to increase resilience to epidemic invasion, while increasing the degree of branching enhances the spread of epidemics in the population of roots. Some extension of the methods for other epidemiological systems are discussed.

Discontinuous Galerkin approximation of two-phase flows in heterogeneous porous media with discontinuous capillary pressures

We design and investigate a sequential discontinuous Galerkin method to approximate two-phase immiscible incompressible flows in heterogeneous porous media with discontinuous capillary pressures. The nonlinear interface conditions are enforced weakly through an adequate design of the penalties on interelement jumps of the pressure and the saturation. An accurate reconstruction of the total velocity is considered in the Raviart-Thomas(-Nedelec) finite element spaces, together with diffusivity-dependent weighted averages to cope with degeneracies in the saturation equation and with media heterogeneities. The proposed method is assessed on one-dimensional test cases exhibiting rough solutions, degeneracies, and capillary barriers. Stable and accurate solutions are obtained without limiters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.