On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effective coordination concept applied for phase change (GeTe)(m)(Sb(2)Te(3))(n) compounds

In this work, we employed the effective coordination concept to study the local environments of the Ge, Sb, and Te atoms in the Ge(m)Sb(2n)Te(m+3n) compounds. From our calculations and analysis, we found an average effective coordination number (ECN) reduction of 1.59, 1.42, and 1.37, for the Ge, Sb, Te atoms in the phase transition from crystalline, ECN=5.55 (Ge), 5.73 (Sb), 4.37 (Te), to the amorphous phase, ECN=3.96 (Ge), 4.31 (Sb), 3.09 (Te), for the Ge(2)Sb(2)Te(5) composition. Similar changes are observed for other compositions. Thus, our results indicate that the coordination changes from the crystalline to amorphous phase are not large as previously assumed in the literature, i.e., from sixfold to fourfold for Ge, which can contribute to obtain a better understanding of the crystalline to amorphous phase transition. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3533422]

Density functional theory investigation of 3d, 4d, and 5d 13-atom metal clusters

The knowledge of the atomic structure of clusters composed by few atoms is a basic prerequisite to obtain insights into the mechanisms that determine their chemical and physical properties as a function of diameter, shape, surface termination, as well as to understand the mechanism of bulk formation. Due to the wide use of metal systems in our modern life, the accurate determination of the properties of 3d, 4d, and 5d metal clusters poses a huge problem for nanoscience. In this work, we report a density functional theory study of the atomic structure, binding energies, effective coordination numbers, average bond lengths, and magnetic properties of the 3d, 4d, and 5d metal (30 elements) clusters containing 13 atoms, M(13). First, a set of lowest-energy local minimum structures (as supported by vibrational analysis) were obtained by combining high-temperature first- principles molecular-dynamics simulation, structure crossover, and the selection of five well-known M(13) structures. Several new lower energy configurations were identified, e. g., Pd(13), W(13), Pt(13), etc., and previous known structures were confirmed by our calculations. Furthermore, the following trends were identified: (i) compact icosahedral-like forms at the beginning of each metal series, more opened structures such as hexagonal bilayerlike and double simple-cubic layers at the middle of each metal series, and structures with an increasing effective coordination number occur for large d states occupation. (ii) For Au(13), we found that spin-orbit coupling favors the three-dimensional (3D) structures, i.e., a 3D structure is about 0.10 eV lower in energy than the lowest energy known two-dimensional configuration. (iii) The magnetic exchange interactions play an important role for particular systems such as Fe, Cr, and Mn. (iv) The analysis of the binding energy and average bond lengths show a paraboliclike shape as a function of the occupation of the d states and hence, most of the properties can be explained by the chemistry picture of occupation of the bonding and antibonding states.

A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical hepatitis C vaccine compared to antiviral therapy

We propose a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We assumed that a hypothetical vaccine, which cost was taken to be the initial cost of the vaccine against hepatitis B exists and it is introduced in the model. We computed its cost-effectiveness compared with the anti-HCV therapy. The calculated basic reproduction number was 1.20. The model predicts that without intervention a steady state exists with an HCV prevalence of 3%, in agreement with the Current epidemiological data. Starting from this steady state three interventions were simulated: indiscriminate vaccination, selective vaccination and anti-HCV therapy. Selective vaccination proved to be the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness ratio, followed by indiscriminate vaccination and anti-HCV therapy.

The risk of chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area

Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

FOR DEBATE A hypothesis for the 2007 dengue outbreak in Singapore

A previous mathematical model explaining dengue in Singapore predicted a reasonable outbreak of about 6500 cases for 2006 and a very mild outbreak with about 2000 cases for 2007. However, only 3051 cases were reported in 2006 while more than 7800 were reported in the first 44 weeks of 2007. We hypothesized that the combination of haze with other local sources of particulate matter had a significant impact on mosquito life expectancy, significantly increasing their mortality rate. To test the hypothesis a mathematical model based on the reproduction number of dengue fever and aimed at comparing the impact of several possible alternative control strategies was proposed. This model also aimed at contributing to the understanding of the causes of dengue resurgence in Singapore in the last decade. The model`s simulation demonstrated that an increase in mosquito mortality in 2006 and either a reduction in mortality or an increase in the carrying capacity of mosquitoes in 2007 explained the patterned observed in Singapore. Based on the model`s simulation we concluded that the fewer than expected number of dengue cases in Singapore in 2006 was caused by an increase in mosquito mortality due to the disproportionate haze affecting the country that year and that particularly favourable environmental conditions in 2007 propitiated mosquitoes with a lower mortality rate, which explains the greater than expected number of dengue cases in 2007. Whether our hypothesis is plausible or not should be debated further.

Modeling the Dynamics of Viral Evolution Considering Competition Within Individual Hosts and at Population Level: The Effects of Treatment

We consider two viral strains competing against each other within individual hosts (at cellular level) and at population level (for infecting hosts) by studying two cases. In the first case, the strains do not mutate into each other. In this case, we found that each individual in the population can be infected by only one strain and that co-existence in the population is possible only when the strain that has the greater basic intracellular reproduction number, R (0c) , has the smaller population number R (0p) . Treatment against the one strain shifts the population equilibrium toward the other strain in a complicated way (see Appendix B). In the second case, we assume that the strain that has the greater intracellular number R (0c) can mutate into the other strain. In this case, individual hosts can be simultaneously infected by both strains (co-existence within the host). Treatment shifts the prevalence of the two strains within the hosts, depending on the mortality induced by the treatment, which is, in turn, dependent upon the doses given to each individual. The relative proportions of the strains at the population level, under treatment, depend both on the relative proportions within the hosts (which is determined by the dosage of treatment) and on the number of individuals treated per unit time, that is, the rate of treatment. Implications for cases of real diseases are briefly discussed.

Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

Consumption of a flaxseed-rich food is not more effective than a placebo in alleviating the climacteric symptoms of postmenopausal women

Our objective in this work was to test the effects of daily intake of bread produced with partially defatted ground flaxseed on the climacteric symptoms and endometrial thickness of postmenopausal women. A double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial was performed with 38 women who had been postmenopausal for 1–10 y and consumed 2 slices of bread containing 25 g of flaxseed (46 mg lignans) or wheat bran (<1 mg lignans; control) every day for 12 consecutive weeks. The outcome variables were the daily number of hot flashes, the Kupperman Menopausal Index (KMI), and endometrial thickness. The plasma lipid profile (total cholesterol and HDL, LDL, and VLDL cholesterol fractions and triglycerides) and the hormones estradiol, follicle-stimulating hormone, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and free thyroxine also were measured. Food intake was evaluated by means of 2 24-h recalls, before and after the treatment. Twenty patients in the study group and 18 in the control group completed the study. The general characteristics did not differ between the 2 groups at the start of the study. Both had significant, but similar, reductions in hot flashes and KMI after 3 mo of treatment. Moreover, endometrial thickness was not affected in either group. Our findings clearly show that although flaxseed is safe, its consumption at this level (46 mg lignans/d) is no more effective than placebo for reducing hot flashes and KMI

Tamoxifen Is Effective in the Treatment of Leishmania amazonensis Infections in Mice

Background: Chemotherapy is still a critical issue in the management of leishmaniasis. Until recently, pentavalent antimonials, amphotericin B or pentamidine compounded the classical arsenal of treatment. All these drugs are toxic and have to be administered by the parenteral route. Tamoxifen has been used as an antiestrogen in the treatment and prevention of breast cancer for many years. Its safety and pharmacological profiles are well established in humans. We have shown that tamoxifen is active as an antileishmanial compound in vitro, and in this paper we analyzed the efficacy of tamoxifen for the treatment of mice infected with Leishmania amazonensis, an etiological agent of localized cutaneous leishmaniasis and the main cause of diffuse cutaneous leishmaniasis in South America. Methodology/Principal Findings: BALB/c mice were infected with L. amazonensis promastigotes. Five weeks post-infection, treatment with 15 daily intraperitoneal injections of 20 mg/kg tamoxifen was administered. Lesion and ulcer sizes were recorded and parasite burden quantified by limiting dilution. A significant decrease in lesion size and ulcer development was noted in mice treated with tamoxifen as compared to control untreated animals. Parasite burden in the inoculation site at the end of treatment was reduced from 10(8.5 +/- 0.7) in control untreated animals to 10(5.0 +/- 0.0) in tamoxifen-treated mice. Parasite load was also reduced in the draining lymph nodes. The reduction in parasite number was sustained: 6 weeks after the end of treatment, 10(15.5 +/- 0.5) parasites were quantified from untreated animals, as opposed to 10(5.1 +/- 0.1) parasites detected in treated mice. Conclusions/Significance: Treatment of BALB/c mice infected with L. amazonensis for 15 days with tamoxifen resulted in significant decrease in lesion size and parasite burden. BALB/c mice infected with L. amazonensis represents a model of extreme susceptibility, and the striking and sustained reduction in the number of parasites in treated animals supports the proposal of further testing of this drug in other models of leishmaniasis.

Continuous reproduction and recruitment in the narrowback mud crab Panopeus americanus (Brachyura, Panopeidae) in a remnant human-impacted mangrove area

The population structure, reproductive period, and juvenile recruitment of Panopeus americanus were studied in order to enhance knowledge of its life cycle and reproductive strategy and promote the maintenance of its natural stocks in an impacted region. Specimens were collected in the remnant human-impacted mangrove at Araca, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, at two-month intervals from January to November 2005, at low tide, with a capture effort by three people. The crabs were measured (carapace width, CW) and sexed. The total catch was 275 animals, including 132 males (48.0%); 127 females (46.2%), of which 39 were ovigerous (14.2% of total catch); and 16 individuals whose sex could not be identified (5.8%). No correlation was observed between water temperature and the number of collected individuals; however, there was a significant, positive correlation with salinity. Males were significantly larger than females. The size-frequency distribution was bimodal, reflecting the occurrende of more than one recruitment pulse and the differential abundance of adults during the period of study. The overall sex ratio was 1:0.97 favoring males, and was not significantly different from the expected value, i.e., this population fits the anomalous pattern of sex occurrence in size classes. Ovigerous females were captured in all sampled months, which explain the continuous recruitment observed. Expected low levels of individuals of different size classes in the population were not confirmed. All population aspects found here allowed us to infer that this population of P. americanus is well established in the impacted mangrove by virtue of its reproductive strategy.

Transvaginal ultrasonography with bowel preparation is able to predict the number of lesions and rectosigmoid layers affected in cases of deep endometriosis, defining surgical strategy

Successful surgical treatment of deep bowel endometriosis depends on obtaining detailed information about the lesions, prior to the procedure. The objective of this study was to determine the capability of transvaginal ultrasonography with bowel preparation (TVUS-BP) to predict the presence of one or more rectosigmoid nodules and the deepest bowel layer affected by the disease. A prospective study of 194 patients with clinical and TVUS-BP suspected deep endometriosis submitted to videolaparoscopy. Image data were compared with surgical and histological results. With respect to bowel nodule detection and presence of at least two rectosigmoid lesions, TVUS-BP had a sensitivity of 97 and 81%, specificity 100 and 99%, positive predictive value (PPV) 100 and 93% and negative predictive value (NPV) 98 and 96%, respectively. Regarding diagnosis of infiltration of the submucosal/mucosal layer, TVUS-BP had a sensitivity of 83%, specificity 94%, PPV 77%, NPV 96%. These findings show that TVUS-BP is an adequate exam for evaluating the presence of one or more rectosigmoid nodules and the deepest layer affected in deep infiltrating bowel endometriosis, confirming the importance of this technique for defining the most appropriate surgical strategy to be implemented.

Oocyte diameter as a predictor of fertilization and embryo quality in assisted reproduction cycles

Objective: To assess the impact of the mean oocyte diameter (MOD) on occurrence of fertilization and embryo quality in assisted reproduction cycles. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Sector of Human Reproduction of the University Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto, University of Sao Paulo (HCFMRP-USP). Patient(s): Thirty-five women undergoing intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) at the University Hospital of Ribeirao Preto from May to October 2007. Intervention(s): MOD assessment. Main Outcome Measure(s): Occurrence of fertilization and qualitative embryo classification on 2nd and 3rd day after ICSI. Result(s): We divided 160 metaphase II oocytes according to MOD into groups A (MOD below the 25th percentile), B (MOD between 25th and 75th percentile), and C (MOD above the 75th percentile). There was no statistically significant association between MOD and the occurrence of fertilization or the qualitative embryo classification on days 2 and 3. There was no statistically significant difference between groups regarding number of cells or the qualitative embryo classification on days 2 and 3. Conclusion(s): The MOD of mature oocytes does not seem to be related to the occurrence of fertilization or to the developmental quality of human embryos on days 2 and 3 after ICSI. (Fertil Steril(R) 2010;93:621-5. (C)2010 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Microsatellite diversity and effective population size in a germplasm bank of Hymenaea courbaril var. stilbocarpa (Leguminosae), an endangered tropical tree: recommendations for conservation

Deforestation in southeast Brazil has led to the extinction of Hymenaea courbaril var. stilbocarpa and ex situ conservation has been established. In this study, the levels of genetic diversity and the effective population size of H. courbaril in a germplasm bank were investigated using six nuclear microsatellite loci. A total of 79 and 91 alleles were found in 65 seed-trees and their 176 offspring, respectively. Offspring have a higher average number of alleles per locus (A = 15.2) than seed-trees (A = 13.2), but lower observed heterozygosity (offspring: H (o) = 0.566; seed-trees: H (o) = 0.607). The estimate of outcrossing rate shows that the study population is perfectly outcrossed (t (m) = 0.978, P > 0.05). Significant deviations from random mating were detected through mating among relatives and correlated matings. The average variance in effective population size for each family was 2.63, with a total effective population size retained in the bank of 170.1. These results confirm that the preserved population of H. courbaril retains substantial genetic variability.