Loss of Ergodicity in the Transition from Annealed to Quenched Disorder in a Finite Kinetic Ising Model

We consider a kinetic Ising model which represents a generic agent-based model for various types of socio-economic systems. We study the case of a finite (and not necessarily large) number of agents N as well as the asymptotic case when the number of agents tends to infinity. The main ingredient are individual decision thresholds which are either fixed over time (corresponding to quenched disorder in the Ising model, leading to nonlinear deterministic dynamics which are generically non-ergodic) or which may change randomly over time (corresponding to annealed disorder, leading to ergodic dynamics). We address the question how increasing the strength of annealed disorder relative to quenched disorder drives the system from non-ergodic behavior to ergodicity. Mathematically rigorous analysis provides an explicit and detailed picture for arbitrary realizations of the quenched initial thresholds, revealing an intriguing ""jumpy"" transition from non-ergodicity with many absorbing sets to ergodicity. For large N we find a critical strength of annealed randomness, above which the system becomes asymptotically ergodic. Our theoretical results suggests how to drive a system from an undesired socio-economic equilibrium (e. g. high level of corruption) to a desirable one (low level of corruption).

The non-equilibrium nature of culinary evolution

Food is an essential part of civilization, with a scope that ranges from the biological to the economic and cultural levels. Here, we study the statistics of ingredients and recipes taken from Brazilian, British, French and Medieval cookery books. We find universal distributions with scale invariant behaviour. We propose a copy-mutate process to model culinary evolution that fits our empirical data very well. We find a cultural 'founder effect' produced by the non-equilibrium dynamics of the model. Both the invariant and idiosyncratic aspects of culture are accounted for by our model, which may have applications in other kinds of evolutionary processes.

Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach

This paper offers some preliminary steps in the marriage of some of the theoretical foundations of new economic geography with spatial computable general equilibrium models. Modelling the spatial economy of Colombia using the traditional assumptions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models makes little sense when one territorial unit, Bogota, accounts for over one quarter of GDP and where transportation costs are high and accessibility low compared to European or North American standards. Hence, handling market imperfections becomes imperative as does the need to address internal spatial issues from the perspective of Colombia`s increasing involvement with external markets. The paper builds on the Centro de Estudios de Economia Regional (CEER) model, a spatial CGE model of the Colombian economy; non-constant returns and non-iceberg transportation costs are introduced and some simulation exercises carried out. The results confirm the asymmetric impacts that trade liberalization has on a spatial economy in which one region, Bogota, is able to more fully exploit scale economies vis--vis the rest of Colombia. The analysis also reveals the importance of different hypotheses on factor mobility and the role of price effects to better understand the consequences of trade opening in a developing economy.

Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Chronic Diseases: Chronic Diseases and Development 2 Health, agricultural, and economic effects of adoption of healthy diet recommendations

Transition to diets that are high in saturated fat and sugar has caused a global public health concern as the pattern of food consumption is a mayor modifiable risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases Although agri food systems are intimately associated with this transition, agriculture and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities policy, and analysis with neither side considering the complex inter relation between agri trade patterns of food consumption health, and development We show the importance of connection of these perspectives through estimation of the effect of adopting a healthy diet on population health, agricultural production trade the economy and livelihoods, with a computable general equilibrium approach On the basis of case studies from the UK and Brazil we suggest that benefits of a healthy diet policy will vary substantially between different populations, not only because of population dietary intake but also because of agricultural production trade and other economic factors

Economic impact of treatment for surgical site infections in cases of total knee arthroplasty in a tertiary public hospital in Brazil

The aim of this study was to estimate the additional cost of treatment of a group of nosocomial infections in a tertiary public hospital. A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted by means of analyzing the medical records of 34 patients with infection after total knee arthroplasty, diagnosed in 2006 and 2007, who met the criteria for nosocomial infection according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To estimate the direct costs of treatment for these patients, the following data were gathered: length of hospital stay, laboratory tests, imaging examinations, and surgical procedures performed. Their costs were estimated from the minimum values according to the Brazilian Medical Association. The estimated cost of the antibiotics used was also obtained. The total length of stay in the ward was 976 days, at a cost of US$ 18,994.63, and, in the intensive care unit, it was 34 days at a cost of US$ 5,031.37. Forty-two debridement procedures were performed, at a cost of US$ 5,798.06, and 1965 tests (laboratory and imaging) were also performed, at a cost of US$ 15,359.25. US$ 20,845.01 was spent on antibiotics and US$ 1,735.16 on vacuum assisted closure therapy, microsurgical flaps, implant removal, spacer use, and surgical revision. The total additional cost of these cases of hospital infection in 2006 and 2007 was of US$ 91,843.75. Based on that, we demonstrate that the high cost of treatment for hospital infections emphasizes the importance of taking measures to prevent and control hospital infection.

Nutritional reserves of Vochysiaceae seeds: chemical diversity and potential economic uses

Contents of proteins, carbohydrates and oil of seeds of 57 individuals of Vochysiaceae, involving one species of Callisthene, six of Qualea, one of Salvertia and eight of Vochysia were determined. The main nutritional reserves of Vochysiaceae seeds are proteins (20% in average) and oils (21. 6%). Mean of carbohydrate contents was 5. 8%. Callisthene showed the lowest protein content (16. 9%), while Q. cordata was the species with the highest content (30% in average). The contents of ethanol soluble carbohydrates were much higher than those of water soluble carbohydrates. Oil contents lay above 20% for most species (30. 4% in V. pygmaea and V. pyramidalis seeds). The predominant fatty acids are lauric (Q. grandiflora), oleic (Qualea and Salvertia) or acids with longer carbon chains (Salvertia and a group of Vochysia species). The distribution of Vochysiaceae fatty acids suggests for seeds of some species an exploitation as food sources (predominance of oleic acid), for other species an alternative to cocoa butter (high contents or predominance of stearic acid) or the production of lubricants, surfactants, detergents, cosmetics and plastic (predominance of acids with C20 or C22 chains) or biodiesel (predominance of monounsaturated acids). The possibility of exploitation of Vochysiaceae products in a cultivation regimen and in extractive reserves is discussed.

Trade unions and the economic performance of brazilian establishments

Este artigo analisa, pela primeira vez na literatura, o impacto dos sindicatos de trabalhadores em vários indicadores de desempenho econômico de firmas industriais brasileiras. Realizou-se uma pesquisa retrospectiva sobre a densidade sindical de 1000 estabelecimentos industriais brasileiros e seus resultados foram combinados aos indicadores de desempenho econômico da Pesquisa Industrial Anual (PIA) de 1990 a 2000. Os resultados indicam que a relação entre a densidade sindical na firma e seus salários, emprego e produtividade, é não-linear, ou seja, um aumento no grau de sindicalização leva a um melhor desempenho, porém a taxas decrescentes. Observou-se, também, uma relação negativa entre sindicalização e rentabilidade. Finalmente, estabelecimentos que introduziram mecanismos de 'participação nos lucros' aumentaram sua produtividade e rentabilidade no período e pagaram maiores salários nas firmas onde o grau de sindicalização era maior.

Economic impact of a rotavirus vaccine in Brazil

The study was done to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazilian children from the healthcare system perspective. A hypothetical annual birth-cohort was followed for a five-year period. Published and national administrative data were incorporated into a model to quantify the consequences of vaccination versus no vaccination. Main outcome measures included the reduction in disease burden, lives saved, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. A rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazil would prevent an estimated 1,804 deaths associated with gastroenteritis due to rotavirus, 91,127 hospitalizations, and 550,198 outpatient visits. Vaccination is likely to reduce 76% of the overall healthcare burden of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis in Brazil. At a vaccine price of US$ 7-8 per dose, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be US$ 643 per DALY averted. Rotavirus vaccination can reduce the burden of gastroenteritis due to rotavirus at a reasonable cost-effectiveness ratio.

Rumor Propagation Model: An Equilibrium Study

Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.

Economic viability of doses and split-applications of nitrogen fertilization in corn crop in a eutrophic Red Latosol

Nitrogen is the nutrient that is most absorbed by the corn crop, with the most complex management, and has the highest share on the cost of corn production. The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic viability of different rates and split-applications of nitrogen fertilization, as such as urea, in the corn crop in a eutrophic Red Latosol (Oxisol). The study was carried out in the Experimental Station of the Regional Pole of the Sao Paulo Northwest Agribusiness Development (APTA), in Votuporanga, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The experimental design was randomized complete blocks with nine treatments and four replications, consisting of five N rates: 0, 55, 95, 135 and 175 kg ha(-1), 15 kg ha-l applied in the seeding and the remainder in top dressing: 40 and 80 kg ha(-1) N at forty days after seeding (DAS), or 1/2 + 1/2 at 20 and 40 DAS; 120 kg ha-1 N split in 1/2 + 1/2 or 1/3 + 1/3 + 1/3 at 20, 40 or 60 DAS; 160 kg ha(-1) N split in 1/4 + 3/8 + 3/8 or 114 + 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 at 20, 40, 60 and 80 DAS. The application of 135 kg ha-l of N split in three times provided the best benefit/cost ratio. The non-application of N provided the lowest economic return, proving to be unviable.

The use of contingent valuation for evaluating protected areas in the developing world: Economic valuation of Morro do Diabo State Park, Atlantic Rainforest, Sao Paulo State (Brazil)

The Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest is internationally recognised as one of the most biodiverse and threatened tropical forests in the world [Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da Fonseca, G.A.B., Kent, J., 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403, 853-858]. The Seasonal Semi-Deciduous Forest is among the most fragmented and threatened biomes of the Atlantic Rainforest Domain. The largest remnant of this biome (35,000 ha) is protected by the Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP), situated in the area known as the Pontal do Paranapanema, in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Despite its environmental importance, the park is under political, economic and demographic pressure. The main aim of our research was to estimate the population`s willingness to pay (WTP) for the conservation of MDSP and for the Atlantic Rainforest`s remnants in Sao Paulo State as a whole, by means of the contingent valuation method (CVM). The results featured a high incidence of null WTP and of protest votes. Nevertheless, the population is willing to pay US$ 2,113,548.00/year (R$ 7,080,385.00/year) for the conservation of the MDSP (use and existence values), or US$ 60.39 ha/year (R$ 202.30/ha/year). The results indicate that the preservation value is strongly associated to the population`s ability to pay, increasing with income levels. Qualitative research questions showed that the population considers protected areas to be very important. Still, the valuation of MDSP revealed a gap between the government budget allotted to the park and the value assigned to the area by the public. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phase Equilibrium and Optimization Tools: Application for Enhanced Structured Lipids for Foods

Solid-liquid phase equilibrium modeling of triacylglycerol mixtures is essential for lipids design. Considering the alpha polymorphism and liquid phase as ideal, the Margules 2-suffix excess Gibbs energy model with predictive binary parameter correlations describes the non ideal beta and beta` solid polymorphs. Solving by direct optimization of the Gibbs free energy enables one to predict from a bulk mixture composition the phases composition at a given temperature and thus the SFC curve, the melting profile and the Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) curve that are related to end-user lipid properties. Phase diagram, SFC and DSC curve experimental data are qualitatively and quantitatively well predicted for the binary mixture 1,3-dipalmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycerol (POP) and 1,2,3-tripalmitoyl-sn-glycerol (PPP), the ternary mixture 1,3-dimyristoyl-2-palmitoyl-sn-glycerol (MPM), 1,2-distearoyl-3-oleoyl-sn-glycerol (SSO) and 1,2,3-trioleoyl-sn-glycerol (OOO), for palm oil and cocoa butter. Then, addition to palm oil of Medium-Long-Medium type structured lipids is evaluated, using caprylic acid as medium chain and long chain fatty acids (EPA-eicosapentaenoic acid, DHA-docosahexaenoic acid, gamma-linolenic-octadecatrienoic acid and AA-arachidonic acid), as sn-2 substitutes. EPA, DHA and AA increase the melting range on both the fusion and crystallization side. gamma-linolenic shifts the melting range upwards. This predictive tool is useful for the pre-screening of lipids matching desired properties set a priori.

Liquid-Liquid Equilibrium of Aqueous Two-Phase Systems Containing Some Synthetic Polyelectrolytes and Polyethylene Glycol

Experimental results are presented for the liquid-liquid equilibrium of aqueous two-phase systems containing a synthetic polyelectrolyte (polysodium acrylate, polysodium methacrylate, and polysodium ethylene sulfonate) and polyethylene glycol at (298.2 and 323.2) K. A total of 40 phase diagrams were obtained, comprising data both of the binodal curve (obtained through cloud-point measurements) and of equilibrium compositions. The influences of temperature, the nature of the polyelectrolyte monomer unit, and the chain length of both types of polymers are analyzed and discussed.