Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Changes in Gene Expression Induced by Tobacco Smoke: Evidence for the Importance of Estrogen within Lung Tissue

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in the United States, surpassing breast cancer as the primary cause of cancer-related mortality in women. The goal of the present study was to identify early molecular changes in the lung induced by exposure to tobacco smoke and thus identify potential targets for chemoprevention. Female A/J mice were exposed to either tobacco smoke or HEPA-filtered air via a whole-body exposure chamber (6 h/d, 5 d/wk for 3, 8, and 20 weeks). Gene expression profiles of lung tissue from control and smoke-exposed animals were established using a 15K cDNA microarray. Cytochrome P450 1b1, a phase I enzyme involved in both the metabolism of xenobiotics and the 4-hydroxylation of 17 beta-estradiol (E(2)), was modulated to the greatest extent following smoke exposure. A panel of 10 genes were found to be differentially expressed in control and smoke-exposed lung tissues at 3, 8, and 20 weeks (P < 0.001). The interaction network of these differentially expressed genes revealed new pathways modulated by short-term smoke exposure, including estrogen metabolism. In addition, E(2) was detected within murine lung tissue by gas chromatography-coupled mass spectrometry and immunohistochemistry. Identification of the early molecular events that contribute to lung tumor formation is anticipated to lead to the development of promising targeted chemopreventive therapies. In conclusion, the presence of E2 within lung tissue when combined with the modulation of cytochrome P450 1b1 and other estrogen metabolism genes by tobacco smoke provides novel insight into a possible role for estrogens in lung cancer. Cancer Prev Res; 3(6); 707-17. (C) 2010 AACR.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.