A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis

This paper examines the hysteresis hypothesis in the Brazilian industrialized exports using a time series analysis. This hypothesis finds an empirical representation into the nonlinear adjustments of the exported quantity to relative price changes. Thus, the threshold cointegration analysis proposed by Balke and Fomby [Balke, N.S. and Fomby, T.B. Threshold Cointegration. International Economic Review, 1997; 38; 627-645.] was used for estimating models with asymmetric adjustment of the error correction term. Amongst sixteen industrial sectors selected, there was evidence of nonlinearities in the residuals of long-run relationships of supply or demand for exports in nine of them. These nonlinearities represent asymmetric and/or discontinuous responses of exports to different representative measures of real exchange rates, in addition to other components of long-run demand or supply equations. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain

Objectives. To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. Methods. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer`s instructions, polished through 1 mu m and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO(3) paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n =10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Results. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5 - 62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3 -10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. Significance. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material`s reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group. (C) 009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Melatonin in maturation media fails to improve oocyte maturation, embryo development rates and DNA damage of bovine embryos

Melatonin (MEL) acts as a powerful scavenger of free radicals and direct gonadal responses to melatonin have been reported in the literature. Few studies, however, have evaluated the effect of MEL during in vitro maturation (IVM) on bovine embryos. This study tested the addition of MEL to maturation medium (MM) with no gonadotropins on nuclear maturation and embryo development rates and the incidence of DNA damage in resulting embryos. Cumulus-oocyte complexes were aspirated from abattoir ovaries and cultured in MM (TCM-199 medium supplemented with 10% fetal calf serum - FCS) at 39ºC and 5% CO2 in air. After 24 hours of culture in MM with 0.5 µg mL-1 FSH and 5.0 µg mL-1 LH; 10-9 M MEL) or 10-9 M MEL, 0.5 µg mL-1 FSH and 5.0 µg mL-1 LH, the oocytes were stained with Hoechst 33342 to evaluate nuclear maturation rate. After in vitro fertilization and embryo culture, development rates were evaluated and the blastocysts were assessed for DNA damage by Comet assay. There was no effect of melatonin added to the MM, alone or in combination with gonadotropins, on nuclear maturation, cleavage and blastocyst rates. These rates ranged between 88% to 90%, 85% to 88% and 42% to 46%, respectively. The extent of DNA damage in embryos was also not affected by MEL supplementation during IVM. The addition of 10-9 M MEL to the MM failed to improve nuclear maturation and embryo development rates and the incidence of DNA damage in resulting embryos, but was able to properly substitute for gonadotropins during IVM.

Adsorption of amyloglucosidase from Aspergillus niger NRRL 3122 using ion exchange resin

Amyloglucosidase enzyme was produced by Aspergillus niger NRRL 3122 from solid-state fermentation, using deffated rice bran as substrate. The effects of process parameters (pH, temperature) in the equilibrium partition coefficient for the system amyloglucosidase - resin DEAE-cellulose were investigated, aiming at obtaining the optimum conditions for a subsequent purification process. The highest partition coefficients were obtained using 0.025M Tris-HCl buffer, pH 8.0 and 25ºC. The conditions that supplied the highest partition coefficient were specified, the isotherm that better described the amyloglucosidase process of adsorption obtained. It was observed that the adsorption could be well described by Langmuir equation and the values of Qm and Kd estimated at 133.0 U mL-1 and 15.4 U mL-1, respectively. From the adjustment of the kinetic curves using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm, the adsorption (k1) and desorption (k2) constants were obtained through optimization by the least square procedure, and the values calculated were 2.4x10-3 mL U-1 min-1 for k1 and 0.037 min-1 for k2 .

Deleterious effect of TRIS buffer on growth rates and pigment content of Gracilaria birdiae Plastino & E.C. Oliveira (Gracilariales, Rhodophyta)

This work evaluated the effects of Tris (hydroxymethyl)-aminomethane (TRIS) buffer and its interaction with nutrient concentration on the development of Gracilaria birdie, a common species on the Brazilian coast that has been exploited for agar production. Responses to different conditions were assessed through growth rates and pigment content (chlorophyll a, phycoerythrin, phycocyanin and allophycocyanin). Provasoli's nutrient solution with and without TRIS addition was tested at concentrations of 12.5, 25 and 50%. The pH was also monitored. G. birdiae grew better in the absence of TRIS and at low nutrient concentrations, 12.5 and 25% (growth rates of 10.8-11.3%.day-1). Higher contents of phycoerythrin and chlorophyll a were observed without TRIS at 12.5 and 25% (Phycoerythrin, 649.6-698.0 μg g-1 fresh biomass; Chlorophyll a, 156.0-168.6 μg g-1 fresh biomass). These findings highlight the deleterious effect of TRIS on growth and phycoerythrin and chlorophyll a content. They also demonstrate the importance of appropriate nutrient concentration for laboratory cultures, depending on the intrinsic characteristics of each species.

Effects of temperature and salinity on the survival rates of coxicerberus ramosae (Albuquerque, 1978), an interstitial isopod of a Sandy Beach on the coast of Brazil

The tolerance to the combined effects of temperature and salinity was investigated in the interstitial isopod Coxicerberus ramosae (Albuquerque, 1978), a species of intertidal zone of sandy beaches in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The animals were collected on Praia Vermelha Beach. The experiments lasted 24 h and nine salinities and seven temperatures were used for a total of 63 combinations. Thirty animals were tested in each combination. The species showed high survival in most of the combinations. The temperature of 35 ºC was lethal and at 5 ºC, the animals tolerated only a narrow range of salinities. The statistical analyses showed that the effects of temperature and salinity were significant on the survival, which confirmed the euryhalinity and eurythermy of this species.

Rates of antimicrobial resistance in latin america (2004-2007) and in vitro activity of the glycylcycline tigecycline and of other antibiotics

As a part of the Tigecycline Evaluation and Surveillance Trial (T.E.S.T.), Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacterial isolates were collected from 33 centers in Latin America (centers in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela) from January 2004 to September 2007. Argentina and Mexico were the greatest contributors of isolates to this study. Susceptibilities were determined according to Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute guidelines. Resistance levels were high for most key organisms across Latin America: 48.3% of Staphylococcus aureus isolates were methicillin-resistant while 21.4% of Acinetobacter spp. isolates were imipenem-resistant. Extended-spectrum β-lactamase were reported in 36.7% of Klebsiella pneumoniae and 20.8% of E. coli isolates. Tigecycline was the most active agent against Gram-positive isolates. Tigecycline was also highly active against all Gram-negative organisms, with the exception of Pseuodomonas aeruginosa, against which piperacillin-tazobactam was the most active agent tested (79.3% of isolates susceptible). The in vitro activity of tigecycline against both Gram-positive and Gram-negative isolates indicates that it may be an useful tool for the treatment of nosocomial infections, even those caused by organisms that are resistant to other antibacterial agents.

Catalytic enantioselective arylations: boron to zinc exchange as a powerful tool for the generation of transferable aryl groups

The transmetalation between boron and zinc is of great importance for application in organic synthesis, since it allows the formation of new carbon-carbon bonds between organometallic units and electrophiles. The direct arylation of aldehydes or more scarcely ketones, in a catalytic, enantioselective manner using chiral catalysts has been described recently. The enantiomerically enriched diarylmethanols obtained in these reactions are valuable precursors for important bioactive molecules. This review provides a synopsis of this ever-growing field and highlights some of the challenges that still remain.

A concise enantioselective synthesis of (+)-endo-brevicomin accomplished by a tellurium/metal exchange reaction

A homoenolate generated by tellurium/lithium exchange reaction was employed in a straightforward enantioselective synthesis of (+)-endo-brevicomin in 70% yield and 84.4% e.e.

Disponibilidade de metais pesados em Latossolo com aplicação superficial de escória, lama cal, lodos de esgoto e calcário

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar alguns atributos químicos do solo e a disponibilidade de cádmio (Cd), cromo (Cr), níquel (Ni), mercúrio (Hg), chumbo (Pb) e arsênio (As), por meio da extração pelo DTPA,em conseqüência da aplicação superficial de escória de aciaria, lama cal e lodos de esgoto centrifugados e de biodigestores, nas doses 0 (testemunha), 2, 4 e 8 Mg ha-1 e um tratamento adicional composto pela calagem superficial na dose 2 Mg ha-1. O experimento foi conduzido em delineamento de blocos ao acaso, em condições de campo, em área sob sistema plantio direto, durante 2003 e 2004. A aplicação superficial de escória de aciaria,lama cal, lodo de esgoto centrifugado e de biodigestor, até a dose 8 Mg ha-1, assim como o calcário na dose 2 Mg ha-1, não trazem problemas de disponibilidade ao ambiente, com relação aos metais pesados Cd, Cr, Hg, Pb, Ni e As, quando aplicados sobre a superfície em Latossolo Vermelho distrófico, no sistema plantio direto. A fitodisponibilidade de metais pesados às culturas da soja e aveia-preta foi nula, quando foram aplicadas doses de até 8 Mg ha-1 de lodo de esgoto, escória e lama cal sobre a superfície do solo, no sistema plantio direto

Eucalyptus sp seedling response to potassium fertilization and soil water

A considerable portion of Brazil's commercial eucalypt plantations is located in areas Subjected to periods of water deficit and grown in soils with low natural fertility, particularly poor In potassium. Potassium is influential in controlling water relations of plants. The objective of this study was to verify the influence of potassium fertilization and soil water potential (psi(w)) oil the dry matter production and oil water relations Of eucalypt seedlings grown under greenhouse conditions. the experimental units were arranged in 4x4x2 randomized blocks factorial design, as follow: four species of Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus grandis, Eucalyptus urophylla, Eucalyptus camaldulensis and hybrid Eucalyptus grandis x Eucalyptus urophylla), four dosages of K (0, 50, 100 and 200 mg dm(-3)) and two soil water potentials (-0.01 M Pa and -0.1 M Pa). Plastic containers with 15 cm diameter and 18 cm height, with Styrofoam base, containing 3.0 dm(3) of soil and two plants per container were used. Soil water potential was kept at -0.01 MPa for 40 days after seeding. Afterward, the experimental units were divided into two groups: in one group the potential was kept at 0.01 MPa, and in the other one, at -0.10 MPa. Sol I water potential was control led gravimetrically twice a day with water replacement until the desired potential was reestablished. A week before harvesting, the leaf water potential (psi), the photosynthetic rate (A), the stomatal conductance (gs) and the transpiration rate were evaluated. The last week before harvesting, the mass of the containers was recorded daily before watering to determine the consumption of water by the plants. After harvesting, total dry matter and leaf area were evaluated. the data were Submitted to analysis of variance, to Tukey's tests and regression analyses. The application of K influenced A, gs and the transpiration rate. Plants deficient in K showed lower A and higher Us and transpiration rates. There were no statistical differences in A, gs and transpiration rates ill plants with and Without water deficit. The addition of K reduced the consumption of water per unit of leaf area and, in general, plants submitted to water deficit presented a lower consumption of water.

An empirical evaluation of imputation accuracy for association statistics reveals increased type-I error rates in genome-wide associations

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

Simplified Mathematical Model for an Anaerobic Sequencing Batch Biofilm Reactor Treating Lipid-Rich Wastewater Subject to Rising Organic Loading Rates

This study proposes a simplified mathematical model to describe the processes occurring in an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor (ASBBR) treating lipid-rich wastewater. The reactor, subjected to rising organic loading rates, contained biomass immobilized cubic polyurethane foam matrices, and was operated at 32 degrees C +/- 2 degrees C, using 24-h batch cycles. In the adaptation period, the reactor was fed with synthetic substrate for 46 days and was operated without agitation. Whereas agitation was raised to 500 rpm, the organic loading rate (OLR) rose from 0.3 g chemical oxygen demand (COD) . L(-1) . day(-1) to 1.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1). The ASBBR was fed fat-rich wastewater (dairy wastewater), in an operation period lasting for 116 days, during which four operational conditions (OCs) were tested: 1.1 +/- 0.2 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC1), 4.5 +/- 0.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC2), 8.0 +/- 0.8 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC3), and 12.1 +/- 2.4 g COD . L(-1) . day(-1) (OC4). The bicarbonate alkalinity (BA)/COD supplementation ratio was 1:1 at OC1, 1:2 at OC2, and 1:3 at OC3 and OC4. Total COD removal efficiencies were higher than 90%, with a constant production of bicarbonate alkalinity, in all OCs tested. After the process reached stability, temporal profiles of substrate consumption were obtained. Based on these experimental data a simplified first-order model was fit, making possible the inference of kinetic parameters. A simplified mathematical model correlating soluble COD with volatile fatty acids (VFA) was also proposed, and through it the consumption rates of intermediate products as propionic and acetic acid were inferred. Results showed that the microbial consortium worked properly and high efficiencies were obtained, even with high initial substrate concentrations, which led to the accumulation of intermediate metabolites and caused low specific consumption rates.

Merging Resource Availability with Isotope Mixing Models: The Role of Neutral Interaction Assumptions

Background: Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values. Methodology: We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates. Conclusions: Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.