Role of healthy nursery plants in orange yield during eight years of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis epidemics

The production and commercialization of citrus seedlings inspected and produced in protected screen-houses has become mandatory in Sao Paulo State, Brazil since January 2003. This law was intended to avoid the dispersion of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis (CVC), disease caused by Xylella fastidiosa. Our objective was to compare the yield over 8 years of `Natal` sweet orange trees grafted onto Rangpur lime obtained from healthy nursery plants and from plants artificially inoculated with X. fastidiosa. Yield was evaluated in an orchard planted in February 1999 with two treatments: (i) trees from healthy nursery plant, and (ii) trees from plants artificially inoculated with X. fastidiosa. The mean yield was 21% higher in trees from healthy nursery plants, as compared to trees from inoculated nursery plants. This difference represents a gain of approximately 203 boxes of 40.8 kg each, considering a planting density of 550 plants per hectare. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Small-World Effect in Epidemics Using Cellular Automata

The spread of an infectious disease in a population involves interactions leading to an epidemic outbreak through a network of contacts. Extending on Watts and Strogatz (1998) who showed that short-distance connections create a small-world effect, a model combining short-and long-distance probabilistic and regularly updated contacts helps considering spatial heterogeneity. The method is based on cellular automata. The presence of long-distance connections accelerates the small-world effect, as if the world shrank in proportion of their total number.

Epidemics in networks of spatially correlated three-dimensional root-branching structures

Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common susceptible-infected- recovered (`SIR`) epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we show how the spatially correlated branching structures of plant roots affect transmission efficiencies, and hence the invasion criterion, for a soil-borne pathogen as it spreads through ensembles of morphologically complex hosts. We conclude that the inherent heterogeneities in transmissibilities arising from correlations in the degrees of overlap between neighbouring plants render a population of root systems less susceptible to epidemic invasion than a corresponding homogeneous system. Several components of morphological complexity are analysed that contribute to disorder and heterogeneities in the transmissibility of infection. Anisotropy in root shape is shown to increase resilience to epidemic invasion, while increasing the degree of branching enhances the spread of epidemics in the population of roots. Some extension of the methods for other epidemiological systems are discussed.

Tendência da incidência e da mortalidade por Aids em mulheres na transição menopausal e pós-menopausa no Brasil, 1996-2005

Objetivo: Descrever a incidência e a mortalidade por Aids no Brasil e mulheres na fase menopausal e pós-menopausa. Métodos: Estudo retrospectivo de 1996 a 2005, utilizando dados secundários do Sistema de Informações de Saúde do DATASUS - Ministério da Saúde. Buscou-se por população residente em dados "Demográficos e Socioeconômicos, incidência no Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) e mortalidade no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Os coeficientes específicos de incidência e de mortalidade por Aids/100.000 mulheres foram calculados para cada década da faixa etária de 30 a 69 anos (30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69), pois inclui a população de interesse; isto é, mulheres na transição menopausal e pós-menopausa, dos 35 aos 65 anos, Resultados: Houve aumento da incidência de Aids entre os anos de 1996 e 1998, a partir daí, observa-se tendência à ligeira queda até 2000 e posterior incremento até 2004. Em 2005, o coeficiente retorna a valores próximos dos encontrados em 1997. A mortalidade apresentou queda em todas as faixas etárias nos anos de 1996 e 1997, a partir de então, os coeficientes mantêm-se praticamente estáveis até 1999, exceto na faixa etária de 30 a 39 anos que continua estável até 2005. Já entre mulheres acima de 40 anos, o coeficiente de mortalidade apresentou aumento entre os anos 1999 a 2005. conclusão: Houve aumento no número de casos novos de Aids entre mulheres acima de 30 anos e o mesmo processo se repetiu com relação à mortalidade. O aumento e "envelhecimento" da epidemia entre brasileiras, sinalizam que medidas de promoção à saúde, prevenção da doença, diagnóstico precoce e tratamento efetivo devem ser oferecidos de maneira apropriada às mulheres de 30 a 69 anos, considerando as características pessoais, o contexto familiar e o papel social do sexo feminino nestas idades

Fat and fiber consumption are associated with peripheral arterial disease in a cross-sectional study of a japanese-brazilian population

Background The Western diet plays a role for the epidemics of obesity and related diseases. This study examined a possible association between peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and the dietary components of Japanese immigrants living in Brazil. Methods and Results In this cross-sectional study, 1,267 subjects (aged =30 years) with complete dietary, clinical and laboratory data were studied according to a standardized protocol. Ankle-to-brachial index was used to identify subjects with PAD. The overall prevalence of PAD was 14.6%. Subjects with PAD were older, had lower education and higher mean values of blood pressure, triglycerides, and fasting and 2-h plasma glucose levels compared with those without the disease. Among the subjects with PAD, the consumption of fiber from whole grains (3.0 vs 3.4 g, p=0.001) and linoleic acids (11.0 vs 11.7 g, p=0.017) were lower and intake of total (72.8 vs 69.1 g, p=0.016) and saturated fatty acids (17.4 vs 16.3 g, p=0.012) were higher than those without PAD. Results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between PAD with high total fat intake, low intake of fiber from fruit and oleic acid, independently of other variables. Conclusions Despite limitations in examining the cause - effect relationship, the data support the notion that diet could be important in reducing the occurrence of PAD

Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.

Mosquitoes infected with dengue viruses in Brazil

Dengue epidemics have been reported in Brazil since 1985. The scenery has worsened in the last decade because several serotypes are circulating and producing a hyper-endemic situation, with an increase of DHF/DSS cases as well as the number of fatalities. Herein, we report dengue virus surveillance in mosquitoes using a Flavivirus genus-specific RT-Hemi-Nested-PCR assay. The mosquitoes (Culicidae, n = 1700) collected in the Northeast, Southeast and South of Brazil, between 1999 and 2005, were grouped into 154 pools. Putative genomes of DENV-1, -2 and -3 were detected in 6 mosquito pools (3.8%). One amplicon of putative DENV-1 was detected in a pool of Haemagogus leucocelaenus suggesting that this virus could be involved in a sylvatic cycle. DENV-3 was found infecting 3 pools of larvae of Aedes albopictus and the nucleotide sequence of one of these viruses was identified as DENV-3 of genotype III, phylogenetically related to other DENV-3 isolated in Brazil. This is the first report of a nucleotide sequence of DENV-3 from larvae of Aedes albopictus.

Fat and fiber consumption are associated with peripheral arterial disease in a cross-sectional study of a Japanese-Brazilian population

Background The Western diet plays a role for the epidemics of obesity and related diseases. This study examined a possible association between peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and the dietary components of Japanese immigrants living in Brazil. Methods and Results In this cross-sectional study, 1,267 subjects (aged 30 years) with complete dietary, clinical and laboratory data were studied according to a standardized protocol. Ankle-to-brachial index was used to identify subjects with PAD. The overall prevalence of PAD was 14.6%. Subjects with PAD were older, had lower education and higher mean values of blood pressure, triglycerides, and fasting and 2-h plasma glucose levels compared with those without the disease. Among the subjects with PAD, the consumption of fiber from whole grains (3.0 vs 3.4g, p=0.001) and linoleic acids (11.0 vs 11.7g, p=0.017) were lower and intake of total (72.8 vs 69.1 a, p=0.016) and saturated fatty acids (17.4 vs 16.3g, p=0.012) were higher than those without PAD. Results of multiple logistic regression analysis showed a significant association between PAD with high total fat intake, low intake of fiber from fruit and oleic acid, independently of other variables. Conclusions Despite limitations in examining the cause-effect relationship, the data support the notion that diet could be important in reducing the occurrence of PAD.

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Liberibacters associated with orange jasmine in Brazil: incidence in urban areas and relatedness to citrus liberibacters

Two surveys (2005/2006 and 2009) were conducted in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate the incidence of `Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus` and `Ca. L. americanus`, two liberibacters associated with citrus huanglongbing (HLB) disease and both transmitted by Diaphorina citri, in orange jasmine (Murraya exotica), a widespread ornamental tree in cities and villages. The graft-transmissibility of the two species, and their DNA relatedness to citrus-associated liberibacters, were also investigated. Quantitative PCR was applied to PCR-positive orange jasmine and HLB-positive citrus growing in backyards and orchards to assess their inoculum source potentials. Liberibacters were detected in 91 of 786 sampled orange jasmine plants in 10 of 76 sampled locations. PCR-positive trees exhibited yellow shoots and/or dieback symptoms indistinguishable from those on PCR-negative trees. `Candidatus Liberibacter americanus` was more common in 2005/2006 (96 center dot 6%) and `Ca. L. asiaticus` in 2009 (84 center dot 8%). rplJ nucleotide sequences were identical within all populations of either species. Graft transmission succeeded only in homologous host combinations, including `Ca. L. americanus` (2/10) from/to orange jasmine and `Ca. L. americanus` (5/18) and `Ca. L. asiaticus` (5/9) from/to citrus. Symptoms were mild and developed less rapidly in orange jasmine than in citrus, probably as a result of lower liberibacter multiplication rates. Respective titres of `Ca. L. americanus` and `Ca. L. asiaticus` in orange jasmine averaged 4 center dot 3 and 3 center dot 0 log cells g-1 tissue, compared with 5 center dot 5 and 7 center dot 3 in citrus. The results indicate that orange jasmine does not favour liberibacter multiplication as much as citrus. However, its importance in HLB epidemics should not be underestimated as it is a preferred host of D. citri and is not under any strict tree-eradication programme or measures for insect control.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

Dynamics of Hepatitis D (delta) virus genotype 3 in the Amazon region of South America

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is widely distributed and associated with fulminant hepatitis epidemics in areas with high prevalence of HBV. Several studies performed in the 1980s showed data on HDV infection in South America, but there are no studies on the viral dynamics of this virus. The aim of this study was to conduct an evolutionary analysis of hepatitis delta genotype 3 (HDV/3) prevalent in South America: estimate its nucleotide substitution rate, determine the time of most recent ancestor (TMRCA) and characterize the epidemic history and evolutionary dynamics. Furthermore, we characterized the presence of HBV/HDV infection in seven samples collected from patients who died due to fulminant hepatitis from Amazon region in Colombia and included them in the evolutionary analysis. This is the first study reporting HBV and HDV sequences from the Amazon region of Colombia. Of the seven Colombian patients, five were positive for HBV-DNA and HDV-RNA. Of them, two samples were successfully sequenced for HBV (subgenotypes F3 and Fib) and the five samples HDV positive were classified as HDV/3. By using all HDV/3 available reference sequences with sampling dates (n = 36), we estimated the HDV/3 substitution rate in 1.07 x 10(-3) substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), which resulted in a time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of 85 years. Also, it was determined that HDV/3 spread exponentially from early 1950s to the 1970s in South America. This work discusses for the first time the viral dynamics for the HDV/3 circulating in South America. We suggest that the measures implemented to control HBV transmission resulted in the control of HDV/3 spreading in South America, especially after the important raise in this infection associated with a huge mortality during the 1950s up to the 1970s. The differences found among HDV/3 and the other HDV genotypes concerning its diversity raises the hypothesis of a different origin and/or a different transmission route. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the `ISOTHURM` project

Background This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. Methods The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, So Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. Results Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. Conclusions Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

AIDS in Latin America: assessing the current status of the epidemic and the ongoing response

Background This article provides a summary of the current status of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Latin America, as well as an outline of the diverse responses to it. Methods A search of international databases (Pubmed and ISI-Web of Science), regional databases (Scielo and Lilacs), regional and national documents and UNAIDS reports. Data are presented according to subregion. Results In Mexico HIV remains concentrated among urban men who have sex with men (MSM), and has been growing among injecting drug users (IDU) and in rural areas in relation to migration. An increasing proportion of women among those affected is observed in all countries in Central America, the most affected region, as well as increasing the impact on other vulnerable groups, such as indigenous populations. The Andean Countries have urban epidemics concentrated among MSM. In Peru, non-traditional vulnerable populations were identified. In the Southern Cone heterosexual transmission became more relevant, probably in connection with IDU epidemics and is increasingly affecting lower income groups. Incidence rates have been declining since 2002 in Brazil, the first country to guarantee free, universal access to antiretrovirals, where one-third of drug-nave patients are still initiating treatment at an advanced stage. Generally, access to treatment has improved as a result of support from the Global Fund and other initiatives, but there are concerns regarding coverage, equity and sustainability. Conclusions HIV is still concentrated among MSM in Latin America. Non-traditional vulnerable groups such as migrants and lower income populations, usually considered part of the general population, deserve attention. Programmes confronting sexual exclusion are still needed. Access to treatment has improved over time, but inequalities persist.