25 resultados para E27 - Forecasting and Simulation
em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)
Resumo:
A mathematical model, numerical simulations and stability and flow regime maps corresponding to severe slugging in pipeline riser systems, are presented. In the simulations air and water were used as flowing fluids. The mathematical model considers continuity equations for liquid and gas phases, with a simplified momentum equation for the mixture, neglecting inertia. A drift-flux model, evaluated for the local conditions in the riser, is used as a closure law. The developed model predicts the location of the liquid accumulation front in the pipeline and the liquid level in the riser, so it is possible to determine which type of severe slugging occurs in the system. The numerical procedure is convergent for different nodalizations. A comparison is made with experimental results corresponding to a catenary riser, showing very good results for slugging cycle and stability and flow regime maps. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Mathematical modeling has been extensively applied to the study and development of fuel cells. In this work, the objective is to characterize a mechanistic model for the anode of a direct ethanol fuel cell and perform appropriate simulations. The software Comsol Multiphysics (R) (and the Chemical Engineering Module) was used in this work. The software Comsol Multiphysics (R) is an interactive environment for modeling scientific and engineering applications using partial differential equations (PDEs). Based on the finite element method, it provides speed and accuracy for several applications. The mechanistic model developed here can supply details of the physical system, such as the concentration profiles of the components within the anode and the coverage of the adsorbed species on the electrode surface. Also, the anode overpotential-current relationship can be obtained. To validate the anode model presented in this paper, experimental data obtained with a single fuel cell operating with an ethanol solution at the anode were used. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.
Resumo:
Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO(2) to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO(2). Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state`s 925 225 km(2), 221 092 km(2) have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km(2) have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with similar to 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil`s fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region`s carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).
Resumo:
The study of deformation properties of low carbon steels is of particular interest because of their many technological applications. Obtaining fine grained Fe based materials can be approached by one of the several available Severe Plastic Deformation (SPD) techniques. The current paper shows experimental data and simulations of the deformation process of iron samples by Equal Channel Angular Extrusion (ECAE). The samples were extruded in a 120 degrees channel die either by one or a few passes. The heterogeneity and local development of the deformation on the elbow of the channel has been studied by X-ray measuring and simulation of the texture evolution. The Self Consistent models used for simulation allowed the calculation of the spin of the main texture components which agreed pretty well with the experiments.
Resumo:
Many authors point out that the front-end of new product development (NPD) is a critical success factor in the NPD process and that numerous companies face difficulties in carrying it out appropriately. Therefore, it is important to develop new theories and proposals that support the effective implementation of this earliest phase of NPD. This paper presents a new method to support the development of front-end activities based on integrating technology roadmapping (TRM) and project portfolio management (PPM). This new method, called the ITP Method, was implemented at a small Brazilian high-tech company in the nanotechnology industry to explore the integration proposal. The case study demonstrated that the ITP Method provides a systematic procedure for the fuzzy front-end and integrates innovation perspectives into a single roadmap, which allows for a better alignment of business efforts and communication of product innovation goals. Furthermore, the results indicated that the method may also improve quality, functional integration and strategy alignment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper presents a free software tool that supports the next-generation Mobile Communications, through the automatic generation of models of components and electronic devices based on neural networks. This tool enables the creation, training, validation and simulation of the model directly from measurements made on devices of interest, using an interface totally oriented to non-experts in neural models. The resulting model can be exported automatically to a traditional circuit simulator to test different scenarios.
Resumo:
In this paper, we propose an approach to the transient and steady-state analysis of the affine combination of one fast and one slow adaptive filters. The theoretical models are based on expressions for the excess mean-square error (EMSE) and cross-EMSE of the component filters, which allows their application to different combinations of algorithms, such as least mean-squares (LMS), normalized LMS (NLMS), and constant modulus algorithm (CMA), considering white or colored inputs and stationary or nonstationary environments. Since the desired universal behavior of the combination depends on the correct estimation of the mixing parameter at every instant, its adaptation is also taken into account in the transient analysis. Furthermore, we propose normalized algorithms for the adaptation of the mixing parameter that exhibit good performance. Good agreement between analysis and simulation results is always observed.
Resumo:
In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].
Resumo:
We report in this work the study of the interaction between formic acid and an oxidized platinum surface under open circuit conditions. The investigation was carried out with the aid of in situ infrared spectroscopy, and results analyzed in terms of a mathematical model and numerical simulations. It has been found that during the first seconds of the interaction a small amount of CO(2) is produced and absolutely no adsorbed CO was observed. A sudden drop in potential then follows, which is accompanied by a steep increase first of CO(2) production and then by adsorbed CO. The steep transient was rationalized in terms of an autocatalytic production of free platinum sites which enhances the overall rate of reaction. Modeling and simulation showed nearly quantitative agreement with the experimental observations and provided further insight into some experimentally inaccessible variables such as surface free sites. Finally, based on the understanding provided from the combined experimental and theoretical approach, we discuss the general aspects influencing the open circuit transient.
Resumo:
This article describes the design, implementation, and experiences with AcMus, an open and integrated software platform for room acoustics research, which comprises tools for measurement, analysis, and simulation of rooms for music listening and production. Through use of affordable hardware, such as laptops, consumer audio interfaces and microphones, the software allows evaluation of relevant acoustical parameters with stable and consistent results, thus providing valuable information in the diagnosis of acoustical problems, as well as the possibility of simulating modifications in the room through analytical models. The system is open-source and based on a flexible and extensible Java plug-in framework, allowing for cross-platform portability, accessibility and experimentation, thus fostering collaboration of users, developers and researchers in the field of room acoustics.
Resumo:
In the last decade the Sznajd model has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections. We propose a version of the Sznajd model with a generalized bounded confidence rule-a rule that limits the convincing capability of agents and that is essential to allow coexistence of opinions in the stationary state. With an appropriate choice of parameters it can be reduced to previous models. We solved this model both in a mean-field approach (for an arbitrary number of opinions) and numerically in a Barabaacutesi-Albert network (for three and four opinions), studying the transient and the possible stationary states. We built the phase portrait for the special cases of three and four opinions, defining the attractors and their basins of attraction. Through this analysis, we were able to understand and explain discrepancies between mean-field and simulation results obtained in previous works for the usual Sznajd model with bounded confidence and three opinions. Both the dynamical system approach and our generalized bounded confidence rule are quite general and we think it can be useful to the understanding of other similar models.
Resumo:
The perfect mixing model (PMM) is based on parameters derived from the equipment characteristics as well as ore breakage characteristics. Ore characteristics are represented through the appearance function. This function may be determined using JKMRC laboratorial methods or by standard functions. This work describes the model fitting process of the Carajas grinding circuit, using the JKSimMet simulator Two scenarios were used in model fitting exercises: 1) standard appearance function; and 2) appearance fund ion based on testing carried out on samples taken at circuit feed. From this assessment, the appearance function`s influence in the PMM,fit and it`s relation with the breakage rate were determined. The influence of the appearance function on the respective breakage rate distribution was assessed.
Resumo:
Using the previously described method for appearance function determination, described in Part I of this article, the breakage characterization of the main Carajas ore types was carried out. Based on such characteristics, the ball mill circuit performance was evaluated through simulations. The model described in the first part was used. The results were assessed by comparing ball mill products and cyclone overflow size distribution, as well as simulated recirculating loads. The simulations indicated the potential for processing such ore types at the Carajas grinding circuit, which until now was unknown.
Resumo:
We study in detail the so-called beta-modified Weibull distribution, motivated by the wide use of the Weibull distribution in practice, and also for the fact that the generalization provides a continuous crossover towards cases with different shapes. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely-known distributions, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among several others. It also provides more flexibility to analyse complex real data. Various mathematical properties of this distribution are derived, including its moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are also derived for the chf, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and entropies. The estimation of parameters is approached by two methods: moments and maximum likelihood. We compare by simulation the performances of the estimates from these methods. We obtain the expected information matrix. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution.