WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Dynamic models for computer viruses

Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of the Equivalent Reservoir Modelling Technique for Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems

This paper investigates the validity of a simplified equivalent reservoir representation of a multi-reservoir hydroelectric system for modelling its optimal operation for power maximization. This simplification, proposed by Arvanitidis and Rosing (IEEE Trans Power Appar Syst 89(2):319-325, 1970), imputes a potential energy equivalent reservoir with energy inflows and outflows. The hydroelectric system is also modelled for power maximization considering individual reservoir characteristics without simplifications. Both optimization models employed MINOS package for solution of the non-linear programming problems. A comparison between total optimized power generation over the planning horizon by the two methods shows that the equivalent reservoir is capable of producing satisfactory power estimates with less than 6% underestimation. The generation and total reservoir storage trajectories along the planning horizon obtained by equivalent reservoir method, however, presented significant discrepancies as compared to those found in the detailed modelling. This study is motivated by the fact that Brazilian generation system operations are based on the equivalent reservoir method as part of the power dispatch procedures. The potential energy equivalent reservoir is an alternative which eliminates problems with the dimensionality of state variables in a dynamic programming model.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diffusion anomaly and dynamic transitions in the Bell-Lavis water model

In this paper we investigate the dynamic properties of the minimal Bell-Lavis (BL) water model and their relation to the thermodynamic anomalies. The BL model is defined on a triangular lattice in which water molecules are represented by particles with three symmetric bonding arms interacting through van der Waals and hydrogen bonds. We have studied the model diffusivity in different regions of the phase diagram through Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that the model displays a region of anomalous diffusion which lies inside the region of anomalous density, englobed by the line of temperatures of maximum density. Further, we have found that the diffusivity undergoes a dynamic transition which may be classified as fragile-to-strong transition at the critical line only at low pressures. At higher densities, no dynamic transition is seen on crossing the critical line. Thus evidence from this study is that relation of dynamic transitions to criticality may be discarded. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3479001]

Dynamic transitions in a three dimensional associating lattice gas model

The aggregation of interacting Brownian particles in sheared concentrated suspensions is an important issue in colloid and soft matter science per se. Also, it serves as a model to understand biochemical reactions occurring in vivo where both crowding and shear play an important role. We present an effective medium approach within the Smoluchowski equation with shear which allows one to calculate the encounter kinetics through a potential barrier under shear at arbitrary colloid concentrations. Experiments on a model colloidal system in simple shear flow support the validity of the model in the concentration range considered. By generalizing Kramers' rate theory to the presence of shear and collective hydrodynamics, our model explains the significant increase in the shear-induced reaction-limited aggregation kinetics upon increasing the colloid concentration.

Dynamic transitions in a two dimensional associating lattice gas model

Using Monte Carlo simulations we investigate some new aspects of the phase diagram and the behavior of the diffusion coefficient in an associating lattice gas (ALG) model on different regions of the phase diagram. The ALG model combines a two dimensional lattice gas where particles interact through a soft core potential and orientational degrees of freedom. The competition between soft core potential and directional attractive forces results in a high density liquid phase, a low density liquid phase, and a gas phase. Besides anomalies in the behavior of the density with the temperature at constant pressure and of the diffusion coefficient with density at constant temperature are also found. The two liquid phases are separated by a coexistence line that ends in a bicritical point. The low density liquid phase is separated from the gas phase by a coexistence line that ends in tricritical point. The bicritical and tricritical points are linked by a critical lambda-line. The high density liquid phase and the fluid phases are separated by a second critical tau-line. We then investigate how the diffusion coefficient behaves on different regions of the chemical potential-temperature phase diagram. We find that diffusivity undergoes two types of dynamic transitions: a fragile-to-strong transition when the critical lambda-line is crossed by decreasing the temperature at a constant chemical potential; and a strong-to-strong transition when the critical tau-line is crossed by decreasing the temperature at a constant chemical potential.

Evaluation of the role of environmental factors in the human gastrointestinal tract on the behaviour of probiotic cultures of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01 by the use of a semi-dynamic in vitro model

This study evaluated the influence of gastrointestinal environmental factors (pH, digestive enzymes, food components, medicaments) on the survival of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01, using a semi-dynamic in vitro model that simulates the transit of microorganisms through the human GIT. The strains were first exposed to different simulated gastric juices for different periods of time (0, 30, 60 and 120 min), and then to simulated intestinal fluids for zero, 120, 180 and 240 min, in a step-wise format. The number of viable cells was determined after each step. The influence of food residues (skim milk) in the fluids and resistance to medicaments commonly used for varied therapeutic purposes (analgesics, antiarrhythmics, antibiotics, antihistaminics, proton pump inhibitors, etc.) were also evaluated. Results indicated that survival of both cultures was pH and time dependent, and digestive enzymes had little influence. Milk components presented a protective effect, and medicaments, especially anti-inflammatory drugs, influenced markedly the viability of the probiotic cultures, indicating that the beneficial effects of the two probiotic cultures to health are dependent of environmental factors encountered in the human gastrointestinal tract.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

Dynamic and steady: shear rheological properties of xanthan and guar gums dispersed in yellow passion fruit pulp (Passiflora edulis f. flavicarpa)

Yellow passion fruit pulp is unstable, presenting phase separation that can be avoided by the addition of hydrocolloids. For this purpose, xanthan and guar gum [0.3, 0.7 and 1.0% (w/w)] were added to yellow passion fruit pulp and the changes in the dynamic and steady - shear rheological behavior evaluated. Xanthan dispersions showed a more pronounced pseudoplasticity and the presence of yield stress, which was not observed in the guar gum dispersions. Cross model fitting to flow curves showed that the xanthan suspensions also had higher zero shear viscosity than the guar suspensions, and, for both gums, an increase in temperature led to lower values for this parameter. The gums showed different behavior as a function of temperature in the range of 5 - 35ºC. The activation energy of the apparent viscosity was dependent on the shear rate and gum concentration for guar, whereas for xanthan these values only varied with the concentration. The mechanical spectra were well described by the generalized Maxwell model and the xanthan dispersions showed a more elastic character than the guar dispersions, with higher values for the relaxation time. Xanthan was characterized as a weak gel, while guar presented a concentrated solution behavior. The simultaneous evaluation of temperature and concentration showed a stronger influence of the polysaccharide concentration on the apparent viscosity and the G' and G" moduli than the variation in temperature.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Reaction-diffusion stochastic lattice model for a predator-prey system

We have the purpose of analyzing the effect of explicit diffusion processes in a predator-prey stochastic lattice model. More precisely we wish to investigate the possible effects due to diffusion upon the thresholds of coexistence of species, i. e., the possible changes in the transition between the active state and the absorbing state devoid of predators. To accomplish this task we have performed time dependent simulations and dynamic mean-field approximations. Our results indicate that the diffusive process can enhance the species coexistence.

Utilização de métodos acústicos em estudos de dinâmica costeira: exemplo na desembocadura lagunar de cananéia

Em função de suas condições de interface entre águas doces e salinas, desembocaduras estuarinas e lagunares constituem sistemas geomorfológicos altamente complexos e dinâmicos. Como conseqüência da variabilidade espacial e temporal dos fluxos de maré, o leito responde com uma grande variabilidade nas características morfológicas e sedimentares. Neste sentido, é possível relacionar diretamente a circulação de fundo e o transporte sedimentar com as feições submersas geradas. Perfis de ecossondagem, sonar de varredura lateral e sísmica de alta resolução, executados na desembocadura lagunar de Cananéia, revelaram a existência de uma dinâmica de fundo extremamente complexa, caracterizada por marcas onduladas e ondas de areia de alturas métricas. As maiores ondas de areia, localizadas em uma depressão na desembocadura lagunar, apresentam inversão de polaridade em sua assimetria, com a presença de ondas simétricas de grande tamanho no ponto de inversão. Este padrão morfológico não apresenta variação temporal em escala anual, sugerindo a persistência de um padrão de fluxos sobre o leito. Esta dinâmica revela, também, a constância de fluxos convergentes que aparentemente independem das condições de maré enchente ou vazante. Os resultados permitiram o estabelecimento de um primeiro modelo qualitativo de circulação de fundo na área, com aplicações potenciais na navegação e estudos de proteção da costa.