WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Measuring Dynamic Oscillations of a Small Span Cable-Stayed Footbridge: Case Study Using L1 GPS Receivers

Highly redundant or statically undetermined structures, such as a cable-stayed bridge, have been of particular concern to the engineering community nowadays because of the complex parameters that must be taken into account for healthy monitoring. The purpose of this study was to verify the reliability and practicability of using GPS to characterize dynamic oscillations of small span bridges. The test was carried out on a cable-stayed wood footbridge at Escola de Engenharia de Sao Carlos-Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil. Initially a static load trial was carried out to get an idea of the deck amplitude and oscillation frequency. After that, a calibration trial was carried out by applying a well known oscillation on the rover antenna to check the environment detectable limits for the method used. Finally, a dynamic load trial was carried out by using GPS and a displacement transducer to measure the deck oscillation. The displacement transducer was used just to confirm the results obtained by the GPS. The results have shown that the frequencies and amplitude displacements obtained by the GPS are in good agreement with the displacement transducer responses. GPS can be used as a reliable tool to characterize the dynamic behavior of large structures such as cable-stayed footbridges undergoing dynamic loads.

Dynamic models for computer viruses

Computer viruses are an important risk to computational systems endangering either corporations of all sizes or personal computers used for domestic applications. Here, classical epidemiological models for disease propagation are adapted to computer networks and, by using simple systems identification techniques a model called SAIC (Susceptible, Antidotal, Infectious, Contaminated) is developed. Real data about computer viruses are used to validate the model. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of the Equivalent Reservoir Modelling Technique for Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems

This paper investigates the validity of a simplified equivalent reservoir representation of a multi-reservoir hydroelectric system for modelling its optimal operation for power maximization. This simplification, proposed by Arvanitidis and Rosing (IEEE Trans Power Appar Syst 89(2):319-325, 1970), imputes a potential energy equivalent reservoir with energy inflows and outflows. The hydroelectric system is also modelled for power maximization considering individual reservoir characteristics without simplifications. Both optimization models employed MINOS package for solution of the non-linear programming problems. A comparison between total optimized power generation over the planning horizon by the two methods shows that the equivalent reservoir is capable of producing satisfactory power estimates with less than 6% underestimation. The generation and total reservoir storage trajectories along the planning horizon obtained by equivalent reservoir method, however, presented significant discrepancies as compared to those found in the detailed modelling. This study is motivated by the fact that Brazilian generation system operations are based on the equivalent reservoir method as part of the power dispatch procedures. The potential energy equivalent reservoir is an alternative which eliminates problems with the dimensionality of state variables in a dynamic programming model.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nominal versus indexed debt: A quantitative horse race

The main arguments in favor and against nominal and indexed debts are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortion, government outlays uncertainty, and contingent-debt service. Our framework also recognizes that contingent debt can be associated with incentive problems and lack of commitment. Thus, the benefits of unexpected inflation are tempered by higher interest rates. We obtain that costs from inflation more than offset the benefits from reducing tax distortions. We further discuss sustainability of nominal debt in developing (volatile) countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diffusion anomaly and dynamic transitions in the Bell-Lavis water model

In this paper we investigate the dynamic properties of the minimal Bell-Lavis (BL) water model and their relation to the thermodynamic anomalies. The BL model is defined on a triangular lattice in which water molecules are represented by particles with three symmetric bonding arms interacting through van der Waals and hydrogen bonds. We have studied the model diffusivity in different regions of the phase diagram through Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that the model displays a region of anomalous diffusion which lies inside the region of anomalous density, englobed by the line of temperatures of maximum density. Further, we have found that the diffusivity undergoes a dynamic transition which may be classified as fragile-to-strong transition at the critical line only at low pressures. At higher densities, no dynamic transition is seen on crossing the critical line. Thus evidence from this study is that relation of dynamic transitions to criticality may be discarded. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3479001]

Dynamic transitions in a three dimensional associating lattice gas model

The aggregation of interacting Brownian particles in sheared concentrated suspensions is an important issue in colloid and soft matter science per se. Also, it serves as a model to understand biochemical reactions occurring in vivo where both crowding and shear play an important role. We present an effective medium approach within the Smoluchowski equation with shear which allows one to calculate the encounter kinetics through a potential barrier under shear at arbitrary colloid concentrations. Experiments on a model colloidal system in simple shear flow support the validity of the model in the concentration range considered. By generalizing Kramers' rate theory to the presence of shear and collective hydrodynamics, our model explains the significant increase in the shear-induced reaction-limited aggregation kinetics upon increasing the colloid concentration.

Dynamic transitions in a two dimensional associating lattice gas model

Using Monte Carlo simulations we investigate some new aspects of the phase diagram and the behavior of the diffusion coefficient in an associating lattice gas (ALG) model on different regions of the phase diagram. The ALG model combines a two dimensional lattice gas where particles interact through a soft core potential and orientational degrees of freedom. The competition between soft core potential and directional attractive forces results in a high density liquid phase, a low density liquid phase, and a gas phase. Besides anomalies in the behavior of the density with the temperature at constant pressure and of the diffusion coefficient with density at constant temperature are also found. The two liquid phases are separated by a coexistence line that ends in a bicritical point. The low density liquid phase is separated from the gas phase by a coexistence line that ends in tricritical point. The bicritical and tricritical points are linked by a critical lambda-line. The high density liquid phase and the fluid phases are separated by a second critical tau-line. We then investigate how the diffusion coefficient behaves on different regions of the chemical potential-temperature phase diagram. We find that diffusivity undergoes two types of dynamic transitions: a fragile-to-strong transition when the critical lambda-line is crossed by decreasing the temperature at a constant chemical potential; and a strong-to-strong transition when the critical tau-line is crossed by decreasing the temperature at a constant chemical potential.

Vehicle Dynamic Safety in Measured Rough Pavement

Dynamic vehicle behavior is used to identify safe traffic speed limits. The proposed methodology is based on the vehicle vertical wheel contact force response excited by measured pavement irregularities on the frequency domain. A quarter-car model is used to identify vehicle dynamic behavior. The vertical elevation of an unpaved road surface has been measured. The roughness spectral density is quantified as ISO Level C. Calculations for the vehicle inertance function were derived by using the vertical contact force transfer function weighed by the pavement spectral density roughness function in the frequency domain. The statistical contact load variation is obtained from the vehicle inertance density function integration. The vehicle safety behavior concept is based on its handling ability properties. The ability to generate tangential forces on the wheel/road contact interface is the key to vehicle handling. This ability is related to tire/pavement contact forces. A contribution to establish a traffic safety speed limit is obtained from the likelihood of the loss of driveability. The results show that at speeds faster than 25 km/h the likelihood of tire contact loss is possible when traveling on the measured road type. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.19435436.0000216. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Real time optimization (RTO) with model predictive control (MPC)

This paper studies a simplified methodology to integrate the real time optimization (RTO) of a continuous system into the model predictive controller in the one layer strategy. The gradient of the economic objective function is included in the cost function of the controller. Optimal conditions of the process at steady state are searched through the use of a rigorous non-linear process model, while the trajectory to be followed is predicted with the use of a linear dynamic model, obtained through a plant step test. The main advantage of the proposed strategy is that the resulting control/optimization problem can still be solved with a quadratic programming routine at each sampling step. Simulation results show that the approach proposed may be comparable to the strategy that solves the full economic optimization problem inside the MPC controller where the resulting control problem becomes a non-linear programming problem with a much higher computer load. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the role of environmental factors in the human gastrointestinal tract on the behaviour of probiotic cultures of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01 by the use of a semi-dynamic in vitro model

This study evaluated the influence of gastrointestinal environmental factors (pH, digestive enzymes, food components, medicaments) on the survival of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01, using a semi-dynamic in vitro model that simulates the transit of microorganisms through the human GIT. The strains were first exposed to different simulated gastric juices for different periods of time (0, 30, 60 and 120 min), and then to simulated intestinal fluids for zero, 120, 180 and 240 min, in a step-wise format. The number of viable cells was determined after each step. The influence of food residues (skim milk) in the fluids and resistance to medicaments commonly used for varied therapeutic purposes (analgesics, antiarrhythmics, antibiotics, antihistaminics, proton pump inhibitors, etc.) were also evaluated. Results indicated that survival of both cultures was pH and time dependent, and digestive enzymes had little influence. Milk components presented a protective effect, and medicaments, especially anti-inflammatory drugs, influenced markedly the viability of the probiotic cultures, indicating that the beneficial effects of the two probiotic cultures to health are dependent of environmental factors encountered in the human gastrointestinal tract.

A Dynamic Model of Hand-and-Foot Syndrome in Patients Receiving Capecitabine

For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

Dynamic and steady: shear rheological properties of xanthan and guar gums dispersed in yellow passion fruit pulp (Passiflora edulis f. flavicarpa)

Yellow passion fruit pulp is unstable, presenting phase separation that can be avoided by the addition of hydrocolloids. For this purpose, xanthan and guar gum [0.3, 0.7 and 1.0% (w/w)] were added to yellow passion fruit pulp and the changes in the dynamic and steady - shear rheological behavior evaluated. Xanthan dispersions showed a more pronounced pseudoplasticity and the presence of yield stress, which was not observed in the guar gum dispersions. Cross model fitting to flow curves showed that the xanthan suspensions also had higher zero shear viscosity than the guar suspensions, and, for both gums, an increase in temperature led to lower values for this parameter. The gums showed different behavior as a function of temperature in the range of 5 - 35ºC. The activation energy of the apparent viscosity was dependent on the shear rate and gum concentration for guar, whereas for xanthan these values only varied with the concentration. The mechanical spectra were well described by the generalized Maxwell model and the xanthan dispersions showed a more elastic character than the guar dispersions, with higher values for the relaxation time. Xanthan was characterized as a weak gel, while guar presented a concentrated solution behavior. The simultaneous evaluation of temperature and concentration showed a stronger influence of the polysaccharide concentration on the apparent viscosity and the G' and G" moduli than the variation in temperature.