Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Threat of Dengue to Blood Safety in Dengue-Endemic Countries

Dengue, the most common arbovirus infection globally, is transmitted by mosquito vectors. Healthcare-related transmission, including transmission by blood products, has been documented, although the frequency of these occurrences is unknown. Dengue is endemic to Singapore, a city-state in Asia. Using mathematical modeling, we estimated the risk for dengue-infected blood transfusions in Singapore in 2005 to be 1.625-6/10,000 blood transfusions, assuming a ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections of 2:1 to 10:1. However, the level of viremia required to cause clinical dengue cases is person-dependent and unknown. Further studies are needed to establish the magnitude of the threat that dengue poses to blood safety in countries where it is endemic. It will then be possible to assess whether screening is feasible and to identify approaches that are most cost-effective on the basis of characteristics of local populations and seasonality of dengue.

Incidence and risk factors of aplastic anemia in Latin American countries: the LATIN case-control study

Background Associations between aplastic anemia and numerous drugs, pesticides and chemicals have been reported. However, at least 50% of the etiology of aplastic anemia remains unexplained. Design and Methods This was a case-control, multicenter, multinational study, designed to identify risk factors for agranulocytosis and aplastic anemia. The cases were patients with diagnosis of aplastic anemia confirmed through biopsy or bone marrow aspiration, selected through an active search of clinical laboratories, hematology clinics and medical records. The controls did not have either aplastic anemia or chronic diseases. A total of 224 patients with aplastic anemia were included in the study, each case was paired with four controls, according to sex, age group, and hospital where the case was first seen. Information was collected on demographic data, medical history, laboratory tests, medications, and other potential risk factors prior to diagnosis. Results The incidence of aplastic anemia was 1.6 cases per million per year. Higher rates of benzene exposure (>= 30 exposures per year) were associated with a greater risk of aplastic anemia (odds ratio, OR: 4.2; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.82-9.82). Individuals exposed to chloramphenicol in the previous year had an adjusted OR for aplastic anemia of 8.7 (CI: 0.87-87.93) and those exposed to azithromycin had an adjusted OR of 11.02 (CI 1.14-108.02). Conclusions The incidence of aplastic anemia in Latin America countries is low. Although the research study centers had a high coverage of health services, the underreporting of cases of aplastic anemia in selected regions can be discussed. Frequent exposure to benzene-based products increases the risk for aplastic anemia. Few associations with specific drugs were found, and it is likely that some of these were due to chance alone.

Work disability remains a major problem in rheumatoid arthritis in the 2000s: data from 32 countries in the QUEST-RA Study

Introduction: Work disability is a major consequence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), associated not only with traditional disease activity variables, but also more significantly with demographic, functional, occupational, and societal variables. Recent reports suggest that the use of biologic agents offers potential for reduced work disability rates, but the conclusions are based on surrogate disease activity measures derived from studies primarily from Western countries. Methods: The Quantitative Standard Monitoring of Patients with RA (QUEST-RA) multinational database of 8,039 patients in 86 sites in 32 countries, 16 with high gross domestic product (GDP) (>24K US dollars (USD) per capita) and 16 low-GDP countries (<11K USD), was analyzed for work and disability status at onset and over the course of RA and clinical status of patients who continued working or had stopped working in high-GDP versus low-GDP countries according to all RA Core Data Set measures. Associations of work disability status with RA Core Data Set variables and indices were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analyses. Results: At the time of first symptoms, 86% of men (range 57%-100% among countries) and 64% (19%-87%) of women <65 years were working. More than one third (37%) of these patients reported subsequent work disability because of RA. Among 1,756 patients whose symptoms had begun during the 2000s, the probabilities of continuing to work were 80% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78%-82%) at 2 years and 68% (95% CI 65%-71%) at 5 years, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. Patients who continued working versus stopped working had significantly better clinical status for all clinical status measures and patient self-report scores, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. However, patients who had stopped working in high-GDP countries had better clinical status than patients who continued working in low-GDP countries. The most significant identifier of work disability in all subgroups was Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) functional disability score. Conclusions: Work disability rates remain high among people with RA during this millennium. In low-GDP countries, people remain working with high levels of disability and disease activity. Cultural and economic differences between societies affect work disability as an outcome measure for RA.

Non-Cardiac Surgery in Developing Countries: Epidemiological Aspects and Economical Opportunities - The Case of Brazil

Background: Worldwide distribution of surgical interventions is unequal. Developed countries account for the majority of surgeries and information about non-cardiac operations in developing countries is scarce. The purpose of our study was to describe the epidemiological data of non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in the last years. Methods and Findings: This is a retrospective cohort study that investigated the time window from 1995 to 2007. We collected information from DATASUS, a national public health system database. The following variables were studied: number of surgeries, in-hospital expenses, blood transfusion related costs, length of stay and case fatality rates. The results were presented as sum, average and percentage. The trend analysis was performed by linear regression model. There were 32,659,513 non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in thirteen years. An increment of 20.42% was observed in the number of surgeries in this period and nowadays nearly 3 million operations are performed annually. The cost of these procedures has increased tremendously in the last years. The increment of surgical cost was almost 200%. The total expenses related to surgical hospitalizations were more than $10 billion in all these years. The yearly cost of surgical procedures to public health system was more than $1.27 billion for all surgical hospitalizations, and in average, U$445.24 per surgical procedure. The total cost of blood transfusion was near $98 million in all years and annually approximately $10 million were spent in perioperative transfusion. The surgical mortality had an increment of 31.11% in the period. Actually, in 2007, the surgical mortality in Brazil was 1.77%. All the variables had a significant increment along the studied period: r square (r(2)) = 0.447 for the number of surgeries (P = 0.012), r(2) = 0.439 for in-hospital expenses (P = 0.014) and r(2) = 0.907 for surgical mortality (P = 0.0055). Conclusion: The volume of surgical procedures has increased substantially in Brazil through the past years. The expenditure related to these procedures and its mortality has also increased as the number of operations. Better planning of public health resource and strategies of investment are needed to supply the crescent demand of surgery in Brazil.

Access and Affordability of Electricity in Developing Countries

A key objective of developing countries is to provide affordable access to modern energy services in order to support economic and social development. The paper presents a number of arguments for why and in which way energy access and affordability can play a key role in national development programs and in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Approaches for measuring accessibility and affordability are presented, drawing on case studies of Bangladesh. Brazil, and South Africa, countries with different rates of electrification. Affordability of using electricity is examined in relation to the energy expenditure burden for households and time consumption. Conclusions focus on lessons learned and recommendations for implementing policies, instruments, and regulatory measures to tackle the challenge of affordability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Varenicline in Adult Smokers: A Multinational, 24-Week, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study

Background: Prevalence rates of smoking are rising in developing countries. Previous trials evaluating the efficacy and tolerability of the smoking-cessation medication varenicline have used largely participants of Caucasian origin. Objective: This study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of varenicline in populations of participants from Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East to investigate potential differences in the therapeutic response to varenicline. Methods: This multinational, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was conducted at 42 centers in 11 countries (Latin America: Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Venezuela; Africa: Egypt and South Africa; Middle East: Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). Participants were male and female smokers aged 18 to 75 years who were motivated to stop smoking; smoked >= 10 cigarettes/d, with no cumulative period of abstinence >3 months in the previous year; and who had no serious or unstable disease within the previous 6 months. Subjects were randomized in a 2:1 ratio to receive varenicline 1 mg or placebo, BID for 12 weeks, with a 12-week nontreatment follow-up. Brief smoking-cessation counseling was provided. The main outcome measures were carbon monoxide confirmed continuous abstinence rate (CAR) at weeks 9 to 12 and weeks 9 to 24. Adverse events (AEs) were recorded for tolerability assessment. Results: Overall, 588 subjects (varenicline, 390; placebo, 198) were randomized and treated. The mean (SD) ages of subjects in the varenicline and placebo groups were 43.1 (10.8) and 43.9 (10.8) years, respectively; 57.7% and 65.7% were male; and the mean (SD) weights were 75.0 (16.0) and 76.7 (16.3) kg (range, 40.0-130.0 and 45.6-126.0 kg). CAR at weeks 9 to 12 was significantly higher with varenicline than with placebo (53.59% vs 18.69%; odds ratio [OR] = 5.76; 95% CI, 3.74-8.88; P < 0.0001), and this rate was maintained during weeks 9 to 24 (39.74% vs 13.13%; OR = 4.78; 95% CI, 2.97-7.68; P < 0.0001). Nausea, headache, and insomnia were the most commonly reported AEs with varenicline and were reported numerically more frequently in the varenicline group compared with the placebo group. Serious AEs (SAEs) were reported in 2.8% of varenicline recipients compared with 1.0% in the placebo group, with 6 subjects reporting psychiatric SAEs compared with none in the placebo group. Conclusion: Based on these data, varenicline was apparently efficacious and generally well tolerated as a smoking-cessation aid in smokers from selected sites in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. ClinicalTrials. gov identifier: NCT00594204. (Clin Ther. 2011;33:465-477) (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier HS Journals, Inc.

Environments for nursing scholarship and journal impact factor in five countries

Background: Universities worldwide are seeking objective measures for the assessment of their faculties` research products to evaluate them and to attain prestige. Despite concerns, the impact factors (IF) of journals where faculties publish have been adopted. Research objective: The study aims to explore conditions created within five countries as a result of policies requiring or not requiring faculty to publish in high IF journals, and the extent to which these facilitated or hindered the development of nursing science. Design: The design was a multiple case study of Brazil, Taiwan, Thailand (with IF policies, Group A), United Kingdom and the United States (no IF policies, Group B). Key informants from each country were identified to assist in subject recruitment. Methods: A questionnaire was developed for data collection. The study was approved by a human subject review committee. Five faculty members of senior rank from each country participated. All communication occurred electronically. Findings: Groups A and B countries differed on who used the policy and the purposes for which it was used. There were both similarities and differences across the five countries with respect to hurdles, scholar behaviour, publishing locally vs. internationally, views of their science, steps taken to internationalize their journals. Conclusions: In group A countries, Taiwan seemed most successful in developing its scholarship. Group B countries have continued their scientific progress without such policies. IF policies were not necessary motivators of scholarship; factors such as qualified nurse scientists, the resource base in the country, may be critical factors in supporting science development.

Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Corruption and the size of government: causality tests for OECD and Latin American countries

The purpose of this article is to examine the causality between government size and corruption, and to verify if there is a different pattern of causality between developed Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (excluding Mexico) and developing countries (Latin American countries) during the period 1996 to 2003. Applying Granger and Huang`s (1997) methodology we find evidence that size of government Granger causes corruption in both samples. Since a larger government involvement in private markets today will be followed in future by a higher level of corruption a policy advice would be to enhance governance. The promotion of good governance helps to combat corruption given that it complements efforts to reduce corruption more directly, and it is strongly recommended by the International Monetary Fund, other multilateral institutions, and all worried with the negative impacts of corruption on economic activity.

ICT AND PRODUCTIVITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: NEW FIRM-LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL AND INDIA

This paper uses a unique new data set on manufacturing firms in Brazil and India to estimate production functions, augmented by information and communications technology (ICT). We find a strong positive association between ICT capital and productivity in both countries that is robust to several different specification tests. The paper also breaks new ground when using the Indian data to investigate the effect of the institutional and policy environment on ICT capital investment and productivity. We find that poorer infrastructure quality and labor market policy are associated with lower levels of ICT adoption, while poorer infrastructure is also associated with lower returns to investment.

ON THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MARGINAL PRODUCT OF CAPITAL ACROSS COUNTRIES

We extended the standard neoclassical model of investment for the case of an open economy. Our model shows that risk premium not only creates a wedge between the marginal product of capital across countries but also reduces an economy`s savings rate. A riskier market thus presents a lower income per capita, ceteris paribus. Our empirical analysis, from 1950 to 2003, lends support to the conclusion that both risk and the correction for output price to investment ratio help to explain the differentials.

Valuing water resources in developing countries: A semiparametric approach to valuation models

Valuation of projects for the preservation of water resources provides important information to policy makers and funding institutions. Standard contingent valuation models rely on distributional assumptions to provide welfare measures. Deviations from assumed and actual distribution of benefits are important when designing policies in developing countries, where inequality is a concern. This article applies semiparametric methods to obtain estimates of the benefit from a project for the preservation of an important Brazilian river basin. These estimates lead to significant differences from those obtained using the standard parametric approach.

Health technology diffusion in developing countries: a case study of CT scanners in Brazil

Background The development of products and services for health care systems is one of the most important phenomena to have occurred in the field of health care over the last 50 years. It generates significant commercial, medical and social results. Although much has been done to understand how health technologies are adopted and regulated in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the situation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we examine the institutional environment in which decisions are made regarding the adoption of expensive medical devices into the Brazilian health care system. Methods We used a case study strategy to address our research question. The empirical work relied on in-depth interviews (N = 16) with representatives of a wide range of actors and stakeholders that participate in the process of diffusion of CT (computerized tomography) scanners in Brazil, including manufacturers, health care organizations, medical specialty societies, health insurance companies, regulatory agencies and the Ministry of Health. Results The adoption of CT scanners is not determined by health policy makers or third-party payers of public and private sectors. Instead, decisions are primarily made by administrators of individual hospitals and clinics, strongly influenced by both physicians and sales representatives of the medical industry who act as change agents. Because this process is not properly regulated by public authorities, health care organizations are free to decide whether, when and how they will adopt a particular technology. Conclusions Our study identifies problems in how health care systems in LMICs adopt new, expensive medical technologies, and suggests that a set of innovative approaches and policy instruments are needed in order to balance the institutional and professional desire to practise a modern and expensive medicine in a context of health inequalities and basic health needs.

Incidence and risk factors for agranulocytosis in Latin American countries - the Latin study

Purpose LATIN is a multinational case-control study designed to identify risk factors for agranulocytosis and to estimate the incidence rate of the disease in some Latin American countries. Methods Each study site in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico conducted an active search of agranulocytosis patients in hematology clinics and looked for possible associations with drug use. Results The overall incidence rate was 0.38 cases per 1 million inhabitant-years. Agranulocytosis patients more often took medications already associated with agranulocytosis than controls (p=0.01), mainly methimazole (OR 44.2, 95% CI 6.8 to infinity). The population attributable risk percentage (etiologic fraction) was 56%. The use of nutrient supplements was more frequent among patients than controls (p=0.03). Conclusions Agranulocytosis seems to be very rare in Latin America. The lower than expected number of cases identified during the study period precluded estimation of the risk associated to individual drugs, with the exception of methimazol. However, this is the longest series of agranulocytosis cases ever gathered in Latin America, and information on drug exposures was collected prospectively. The conclusion is that drug-induced agranulocytosis does not seem to be a major public health problem in the study regions.