Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CORRELATION BETWEEN FLOWERING, FRUCTIFICATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES IN Solanum lycocarpum A. St.-Hil, SOLANACEAE

Solanum lycocarpum (lobeira) is a typical and abundant species of brazilian Cerrado, which occupies mainly surrounding disturbed areas. It has interesting characteristics from the point of view of reproductive biology, that probably are favoring the large occupation of habitats by the species. Based on the fact that the species produces flowers and fruit during all the year, the present study had the purpose to verify the association between flower and fruit production with environmental variables (temperature, relative humidity and precipitation), aiming to support future studies referring to reproductive biology and ecology of plant species from Cerrado biome. A population of S. lycocarpum composed of 34 plants in reproductive phase, situated in Morrinhos, south of the State of Goias, Brazil,, was evaluated. All the plants were geographically referenced with a GPS receptor. Observations were made monthly during 13 months (June, 2005 to July, 2006) quantifying open flowers and fruits produced in the intervals between the observations. It was possible suggest high conversion of flowers in fruits. The Spearman rank correlation showed positive correlation of flower number with precipitation and relative humidity. Fruit number was not correlated with the environmental variables.

Erectile Dysfunction and Correlated Factors in Brazilian Men Aged 18-40 years

Introduction. Few population-based studies in erectile dysfunction (ED) included subjects less than 40 years old and analyzed the several factors and consequences potentially associated with this condition. Aim. Evaluation of the prevalence of erectile dysfunction (ED) and associated factors in a sample of Brazilian men aged 18 to 40 years old. Methods. Cross-sectional study in which subjects were contacted in public places of 18 major Brazilian cities and interviewed using an anonymous questionnaire. Survey data were submitted to chi-squared, student`s t-test and logistic regression analyses. Main Outcome Measures. The data were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire with 87 questions about sociodemographic variables, general health, habits and lifestyle-related factors, sexual behavior and sexual difficulties, including ED which was assessed by a single question. Results. Prevalence of ED in 1,947 men was 35.0% (73.7% mild, 26.3% moderate/complete). Greater frequency of ED was seen in subjects that never had information about sex, experienced difficulties in the beginning of sexual life and have never masturbated. ED was associated to lower level of education, but not to race, sexual orientation, employment or marital status. Also, no association was found between ED and smoking, alcoholism, obesity, sedentary life, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, hyperlipidemia, depression or anxiety. ED caused negative impact in men`s self-esteem, interpersonal relationships, work and leisure activities, and in sexual life satisfaction. Less than 10% of men with ED had received medical treatment for this problem. Conclusions. Prevalence of ED in this young population was high, mostly of mild severity. Low education and psychosocial problems were associated to ED and, due probably to the sample subjects` young age, no association was found with organic problems. Measures in the fields of education and psychosocial difficulties prevention would have a positive impact in the control of erectile dysfunction in the young population. Martins FG, and Abdo CHN. Erectile dysfunction and correlated factors in Brazilian men aged 18-40 years. J Sex Med 2010;7:2166-2173.

Upper trunk fat assessment and its relationship with metabolic and biochemical variables and body fat in polycystic ovary syndrome

Background: Fat accumulation in the upper region of the body is common in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and is associated with metabolic complications. The present study aimed to assess the relationship between trunk circumference, metabolic indicators, and abdominal and visceral fat in obese PCOS women. Methods: The weight, fat mass, and subcutaneous arm fat (SAF) of 30 obese PCOS women and 15 healthy controls matched for age and body mass index were evaluated by bioelectrical impedance analysis. Trunk (TrC), neck (NC) and hip circumferences were measured, and the trunk/hip (Tr/H) ratio was determined. Total abdominal fat (TAF), visceral fat (VF) and trunk fat (TrF) were determined by computed tomography. Biochemical evaluation included glycaemia, insulinaemia, testosterone and lipid profile, insulin resistance (IR) was assessed by the QUICKI index. Results: In the PCOS group, there were positive correlations between NC and TAF (r = 0.49, P < 0.0006), TrC and VF (r = 0.62, P = 0.01), and NC and VF (r = 0.70, P < 0.0002). There was good correlation between TrC and TrF (r = 0.69, P = 0.003). TrF correlated with triglycerides levels positively (r = 0.44, P = 0.02). Women with PCOS and IR had a larger quantity of VF and TrF, but a smaller amount of SAF. Within the PCOS group, women with Tr/H ratio above the median had higher basal insulin levels and lower QUICKI indices compared to women presenting a Tr/H ratio below the median. Conclusions: TrC is associated with important metabolic variables in PCOS, proving to be a valuable and innovative tool for assessment of body adiposity distribution in obese PCOS women.

Socio-economic variables influence the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake in Brazilian adolescents: results from a population-based survey

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake among adolescents and the association between socio-economic variables and nutritional status. Design: Cross-sectional study with a population-based sample. Settings: The usual nutrient intake distribution was estimated using the Iowa State University method. The Estimated Average Requirement cut-off point method was used to determine the proportion of adolescents with inadequate intake for each nutrient, according to sex, income, parental educational level and nutritional status. Subjects: Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were applied in 525 male and female Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years. Results: The highest prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake was observed for vitamin E (99% in both sexes). For male and female adolescents, the prevalence of inadequate intake was: Mg, 89% and 84%; vitamin A, 78% and 71 %; vitamin C, 79% and 53%; and vitamin B(6), 21% and 33%, respectively. The prevalence of inadequate intake for niacin, thiamin, riboflavin, Se, Cu and vitamin B(12) was <15 %. Individuals in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata had the highest risk of having inadequate intake for P, riboflavin and vitamins A, B(6) and B(12). Compared with non-overweight individuals, overweight individuals had a higher risk of inadequate intake for Mg, vitamin A, P, thiamin and riboflavin. Conclusions: The present study found a high prevalence of inadequate intake of nutrients that are recognised as being protective against chronic diseases. Adolescents in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata were less likely to have their nutrient intake requirements met.

The impact of smoke from forest fires on the spectral dispersion of cloud droplet size distributions in the Amazonian region

In this paper, the main microphysical characteristics of clouds developing in polluted and clean conditions in the biomass-burning season of the Amazon region are examined, with special attention to the spectral dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution and its potential impact on climate modeling applications. The dispersion effect has been shown to alter the climate cooling predicted by the so-called Twomey effect. In biomass-burning polluted conditions, high concentrations of low dispersed cloud droplets are found. Clean conditions revealed an opposite situation. The liquid water content (0.43 +/- 0.19 g m(-3)) is shown to be uncorrelated with the cloud drop number concentration, while the effective radius is found to be very much correlated with the relative dispersion of the size distribution (R(2) = 0.81). The results suggest that an increase in cloud condensation nuclei concentration from biomass-burning aerosols may lead to an additional effect caused by a decrease in relative dispersion. Since the dry season in the Amazonian region is vapor limiting, the dispersion effect of cloud droplet size distributions could be substantially larger than in other polluted regions.

Caesium, potassium and ammonium distributions in different organs of tropical plants

In the present work the distribution of ions in aboveground plant parts was studied in order to establish the suitability of using radiocaesium as a tracer for the plant absorption of nutrients, such as potassium (K(+)) and ammonium (NH(4)(+)). We present the results for the distributions of (137)Cs, (40)K and NH(4)(+) from four tropical plant species: lemon (Citrus aurantifolia), orange (Citrus sinensis), guava (Psidium guajava) and chili pepper (Capsicum frutescens). Activity concentrations of (137)Cs and (40)K were measured by gamma spectrometry and concentrations of free NH(4)(+) ions by a colorimetric method. Similarly to potassium and ammonium, caesium showed a high mobility within the plants, exhibiting the highest values of concentration in the growing parts of the tree (fruits, new leaves, twigs, and barks). A significant correlation between activity concentrations of (137)Cs and (40)K was observed in these tropical plants. The K/Cs discrimination ratios were approximately equal to unity in different compartments of each individual plant, suggesting that caesium could be a good tracer for (40)K in tropical woody fruit species. Despite the similarity observed for the behaviour of caesium and ammonium in the newly grown plant compartments, (137)Cs was not well correlated with NH(4)(+). Significant temporal changes in the NH(4)(+) concentrations were observed during the development of fruits, while the (137)Cs activity concentration alterations were not of great importance, indicating, therefore, that Cs(+) and free NH(4)(+) ions could have distinct concentration ratios for each particular plant organ. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random sums of exchangeable variables and actuarial applications

In this paper we study the accumulated claim in some fixed time period, skipping the classical assumption of mutual independence between the variables involved. Two basic models are considered: Model I assumes that any pair of claims are equally correlated which means that the corresponding square-integrable sequence is exchangeable one. Model 2 states that the correlations between the adjacent claims are the same. Recurrence and explicit expressions for the joint probability generating function are derived and the impact of the dependence parameter (correlation coefficient) in both models is examined. The Markov binomial distribution is obtained as a particular case under assumptions of Model 2. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multivariate ultrastructural errors-in-variables model with equation error

This paper deals with asymptotic results on a multivariate ultrastructural errors-in-variables regression model with equation errors Sufficient conditions for attaining consistent estimators for model parameters are presented Asymptotic distributions for the line regression estimators are derived Applications to the elliptical class of distributions with two error assumptions are presented The model generalizes previous results aimed at univariate scenarios (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

A reparametrization of Triangular Distribution based on the Skew-Symmetric Distributions

In this paper a new approach is considered for studying the triangular distribution using the theoretical development behind Skew distributions. Triangular distribution are obtained by a reparametrization of usual triangular distribution. Main probabilistic properties of the distribution are studied, including moments, asymmetry and kurtosis coefficients, and an stochastic representation, which provides a simple and efficient method for generating random variables. Moments estimation is also implemented. Finally, a simulation study is conducted to illustrate the behavior of the estimation approach proposed.

Comparação das dimensões de tecido mole entre padrões faciais distintos

OBJETIVO: o presente estudo destinou-se a comparar a morfologia tegumentar de indivíduos segundo a tipologia facial. MÉTODOS: foram utilizadas 90 telerradiografias de pacientes de ambos os sexos, de 12 a 16 anos de idade, divididas em três grupos distintos, referentes a cada padrão morfológico: mesofacial, dolicofacial e braquifacial. Os grupos foram comparados no que se refere às medidas de espessura e altura do lábio superior e inferior, além da espessura do mento mole. Ainda, foi apurada a presença de correlações entre as variáveis de tecido mole avaliadas e medidas cefalométricas de natureza dentária e esquelética. RESULTADOS E CONCLUSÕES: os lábios superiores e inferiores, assim como o mento mole, não apresentaram diferenças em relação às suas espessuras em todos os grupos morfológicos. Porém, as alturas do lábio superior e inferior foram significativamente maiores para os dolicofaciais quando esses foram comparados aos demais grupos. Braquifaciais apresentaram menor altura do lábio superior quando comparados aos mesofaciais, embora ambos não tenham se diferenciado significativamente no que se refere à altura do lábio inferior. A análise das correlações estabelecidas entre as variáveis dos tecidos moles e duros indicou evidências de um desenvolvimento vertical dos lábios superior e inferior em acompanhamento ao desenvolvimento vertical do esqueleto. O posicionamento vertical do incisivo superior se correlacionou significativamente aos mesmos parâmetros labiais, o que garantiu um nível de exposição semelhante desse elemento dentário em todos os grupos.

Geographical and seasonal distributions of the seedeaters Sporophila bouvreuil and Sporophila pileata (aves: Emberizidae)

Many species in the genus Sporophila are migratory. Migration patterns, while poorly studied, may be influenced by seed production which can be very seasonal in some regions. The distribution of S. bouvreuil extends from the Amazon and Suriname south through a large part of the open regions of Brazil. Sporophila pileata, on the other hand, is found in southeastern and southern Brazil as well as Argentina and Paraguay. Both of these species migrate, but their movement patterns are poorly known. To better understand the geographical and the seasonal distributions of S. bouvreuil and S. pileata, we grouped the records into two categories: the breeding season (September to March) and the putative migration season (April to August). We found two areas of sympatry between S. bouvreuil and S. pileata in the Brazilian states of Minas Gerais and São Paulo. For S. bouvreuil we suggest that populations that breed in the Amazon migrate to the Cerrado or Caatinga, where they will encounter resident populations of the same species. These resident populations may take part in short distance migrations. Sporophila pileata, on the other hand, occur in the Cerrado and open areas within the Atlantic Forest and it is not yet possible to determine migratory tendencies or destinations in the non-breeding season.

Análise espacial e sazonal da leptospirose no município de São Paulo, SP, 1998 a 2006

OBJETIVO: Analisar a distribuição espacial e sazonal da leptospirose, identificando possíveis componentes ecológicos e sociais para a sua transmissão. MÉTODOS: Foram georreferenciados 2.490 casos em cada distrito do município de São Paulo, SP, registrados de 1998 a 2006. Os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Foram realizados mapas temáticos com as variáveis taxa de incidência, letalidade, taxa de alfabetização, renda média mensal, número de moradores por domicilio, abastecimento de água e rede de esgoto. Para identificar o padrão espacial (disperso, em aglomerado ou randômico), foram analisadas pelo Índice de Moran global e local. Foi utilizado o coeficiente de correlação de Spearman para testar associações entre as variáveis com padrão espacial em aglomerados. RESULTADOS: O padrão espacial em aglomerados foi observado nas variáveis taxa de incidência de leptospirose, taxa de alfabetização, renda média mensal, número de moradores por domicílio, abastecimento de água e rede de esgoto. Foram notificados 773 casos no período seco e 1.717 no úmido. A incidência e a letalidade estão correlacionadas com as condições socioeconômicas da população, independentemente do período. CONCLUSÕES: A leptospirose está distribuída por todo o município de São Paulo e sua incidência aumenta no período das chuvas. No período seco, os locais de aparecimento dos casos coincidem com as áreas de piores condições de moradia e, durante o período úmido, também aumenta em outros distritos, provavelmente devido à proximidade de rios e córregos.