Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Price dispersion and price indexes

The traditional theory of price index numbers is based on the law of one price. But in the real world, we frequently observe the existence of an equilibrium price dispersion instead of one price of equilibrium. This article discusses the effects of price dispersion on two price indexes: the cost of living index and the consumer price index. With price dispersion and consumer searching for the lowest price, these indexes cannot be interpreted as deterministic indicators, but as stochastic indicators, and they can be biased if price dispersion is not taken into account. A measure for the bias of the consumer price index is proposed and the article ends with an estimation of the bias based on data obtained from the consumer price index calculated for the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from January 1988 through December 2004. The period analysed is very interesting, because it exhibits different inflationary environments: high levels and high volatility of the rates of inflation with great price dispersion until July 1994 and low and relatively stable rates of inflation with prices less dispersed after August 1994.

Pecuarização na Amazônia e consumo de carne: o que está por trás?

O artigo discute o avanço da fronteira agropecuária para dentro da floresta Amazônica, motivado, em grande parte, pelo aumento do consumo de carne bovina e por sua ineficiência na produção de proteínas. A metodologia constou de levantamento bibliográfico e de dados secundários e de campo no município de Xapuri, Acre, onde o fenômeno da pecuarização é bastante intenso, inclusive na Reserva Extrativista Chico Mendes. Em Xapuri, foram entrevistados diferentes atores sociais sobre a motivação para a introdução da pecuária no município e na reserva Chico Mendes. Resultados indicaram fatores históricos, de mercado econômico e de consumo como os principais propulsores. A redução do consumo de carne e seus derivados poderia diminuir a pressão sobre a floresta Amazônica, bem como políticas de incentivo às atividades extrativas.

Fidedignidade de rótulos de alimentos comercializados no município de São Paulo, SP

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a fidedignidade das informações sobre dados nutricionais declarados em rótulos de alimentos comercializados. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 153 alimentos industrializados habitualmente consumidos por crianças e adolescentes, comercializados no município de São Paulo (SP) entre os anos de 2001 e 2005. Os teores de nutrientes informados pelos rótulos foram confrontados com os resultados obtidos por métodos analíticos (físico-químicos) oficiais, considerando a variabilidade de 20% tolerada pela legislação vigente, para aprovar ou condenar as amostras. Foram calculadas médias, desvios-padrão e intervalos com 95% de confiança para os nutrientes analisados, assim como a distribuição da freqüência percentual de amostras condenadas. RESULTADOS: Todos os produtos salgados analisados apresentaram inconformidades relativamente ao conteúdo de fibra alimentar, sódio ou de gorduras saturadas. Os produtos doces apresentaram variação de zero a 36% de condenação relativamente ao teor de fibra alimentar. Mais da metade (52%) dos biscoitos recheados foram condenados quanto à quantidade de gorduras saturadas. Os nutrientes implicados com a obesidade e suas complicações para a saúde foram aqueles que apresentaram maiores proporções de inconformidade. A falta de fidedignidade das informações de rótulos nas amostras analisadas viola as disposições da Resolução da Diretoria Colegiada 360/03 da ANVISA e os direitos garantidos pela lei de Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional e pelo Código de Defesa do Consumidor. CONCLUSÕES: Foram encontrados altos índices de não conformidade dos dados nutricionais nos rótulos de alimentos destinados ao público adolescente e infantil, indicando a urgência de ações de fiscalização e de outras medidas de rotulagem nutricional

POPREP: a generic report for population management

Genetic variation provides a basis upon which populations can be genetically improved. Management of animal genetic resources in order to minimize loss of genetic diversity both within and across breeds has recently received attention at different levels, e. g., breed, national and international levels. A major need for sustainable improvement and conservation programs is accurate estimates of population parameters, such as rate of inbreeding and effective population size. A software system (POPREP) is presented that automatically generates a typeset report. Key parameters for population management, such as age structure, generation interval, variance in family size, rate of inbreeding, and effective population size form the core part of this report. The report includes a default text that describes definition, computation and meaning of the various parameters. The report is summarized in two pdf files, named Population Structure and Pedigree Analysis Reports. In addition, results (e. g., individual inbreeding coefficients, rate of inbreeding and effective population size) are stored in comma-separate-values files that are available for further processing. Pedigree data from eight livestock breeds from different species and countries were used to describe the potential of POPREP and to highlight areas for further research.

A novel continuous time representation for the scheduling of pipeline systems with pumping yield rate constraints

Pipeline systems play a key role in the petroleum business. These operational systems provide connection between ports and/or oil fields and refineries (upstream), as well as between these and consumer markets (downstream). The purpose of this work is to propose a novel MINLP formulation based on a continuous time representation for the scheduling of multiproduct pipeline systems that must supply multiple consumer markets. Moreover, it also considers that the pipeline operates intermittently and that the pumping costs depend on the booster stations yield rates, which in turn may generate different flow rates. The proposed continuous time representation is compared with a previously developed discrete time representation [Rejowski, R., Jr., & Pinto, J. M. (2004). Efficient MILP formulations and valid cuts for multiproduct pipeline scheduling. Computers and Chemical Engineering, 28, 1511] in terms of solution quality and computational performance. The influence of the number of time intervals that represents the transfer operation is studied and several configurations for the booster stations are tested. Finally, the proposed formulation is applied to a larger case, in which several booster configurations with different numbers of stages are tested. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.