Inference From Aging Information

For many learning tasks the duration of the data collection can be greater than the time scale for changes of the underlying data distribution. The question we ask is how to include the information that data are aging. Ad hoc methods to achieve this include the use of validity windows that prevent the learning machine from making inferences based on old data. This introduces the problem of how to define the size of validity windows. In this brief, a new adaptive Bayesian inspired algorithm is presented for learning drifting concepts. It uses the analogy of validity windows in an adaptive Bayesian way to incorporate changes in the data distribution over time. We apply a theoretical approach based on information geometry to the classification problem and measure its performance in simulations. The uncertainty about the appropriate size of the memory windows is dealt with in a Bayesian manner by integrating over the distribution of the adaptive window size. Thus, the posterior distribution of the weights may develop algebraic tails. The learning algorithm results from tracking the mean and variance of the posterior distribution of the weights. It was found that the algebraic tails of this posterior distribution give the learning algorithm the ability to cope with an evolving environment by permitting the escape from local traps.

Bimodal extension based on the skew-normal distribution with application to pollen data

This paper considers an extension to the skew-normal model through the inclusion of an additional parameter which can lead to both uni- and bi-modal distributions. The paper presents various basic properties of this family of distributions and provides a stochastic representation which is useful for obtaining theoretical properties and to simulate from the distribution. Moreover, the singularity of the Fisher information matrix is investigated and maximum likelihood estimation for a random sample with no covariates is considered. The main motivation is thus to avoid using mixtures in fitting bimodal data as these are well known to be complicated to deal with, particularly because of identifiability problems. Data-based illustrations show that such model can be useful. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Geographical distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis and its phlebotomine vectors (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is a re-emerging disease in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It is important to understand both the vector and disease distribution to help design control strategies. As an initial step in applying geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) tools to map disease-risk, the objectives of the present work were to: (i) produce a single database of species distributions of the sand fly vectors in the state of Sao Paulo, (ii) create combined distributional maps of both the incidence of ACL and its sand fly vectors, and (iii) thereby provide individual municipalities with a source of reference material for work carried out in their area. Results: A database containing 910 individual records of sand fly occurrence in the state of Sao Paulo, from 37 different sources, was compiled. These records date from between 1943 to 2009, and describe the presence of at least one of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species in 183/645 (28.4%) municipalities. For the remaining 462 (71.6%) municipalities, we were unable to locate records of any of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species (Nyssomyia intermedia, N. neivai, N. whitmani, Pintomyia fischeri, P. pessoai and Migonemyia migonei). The distribution of each of the six incriminated or suspected vector species of ACL in the state of Sao Paulo were individually mapped and overlaid on the incidence of ACL for the period 1993 to 1995 and 1998 to 2007. Overall, the maps reveal that the six sand fly vector species analyzed have unique and heterogeneous, although often overlapping, distributions. Several sand fly species - Nyssomyia intermedia and N. neivai - are highly localized, while the other sand fly species - N. whitmani, M. migonei, P. fischeri and P. pessoai - are much more broadly distributed. ACL has been reported in 160/183 (87.4%) of the municipalities with records for at least one of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vector species, while there are no records of any of these sand fly species in 318/478 (66.5%) municipalities with ACL. Conclusions: The maps produced in this work provide basic data on the distribution of the six incriminated or suspected sand fly vectors of ACL in the state of Sao Paulo, and highlight the complex and geographically heterogeneous pattern of ACL transmission in the region. Further studies are required to clarify the role of each of the six suspected sand fly vector species in different regions of the state of Sao Paulo, especially in the majority of municipalities where ACL is present but sand fly vectors have not yet been identified.

Deterpenation of Bergamot Essential Oil Using Liquid-Liquid Extraction: Equilibrium Data of Model Systems at 298.2 K

The deterpenation of bergamot essential oil can be performed by liquid liquid extraction using hydrous ethanol as the solvent. A ternary mixture composed of 1-methyl-4-prop-1-en-2-yl-cydohexene (limonene), 3,7-dimethylocta-1,6-dien-3-yl-acetate (linalyl acetate), and 3,7-dimethylocta-1,6-dien-3-ol (linalool), three major compounds commonly found in bergamot oil, was used to simulate this essential oil. Liquid liquid equilibrium data were experimentally determined for systems containing essential oil compounds, ethanol, and water at 298.2 K and are reported in this paper. The experimental data were correlated using the NRTL and UNIQUAC models, and the mean deviations between calculated and experimental data were lower than 0.0062 in all systems, indicating the good descriptive quality of the molecular models. To verify the effect of the water mass fraction in the solvent and the linalool mass fraction in the terpene phase on the distribution coefficients of the essential oil compounds, nonlinear regression analyses were performed, obtaining mathematical models with correlation coefficient values higher than 0.99. The results show that as the water content in the solvent phase increased, the kappa value decreased, regardless of the type of compound studied. Conversely, as the linalool content increased, the distribution coefficients of hydrocarbon terpene and ester also increased. However, the linalool distribution coefficient values were negatively affected when the terpene alcohol content increased in the terpene phase.

Photometric redshifts and k-corrections for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7

We present a catalogue of galaxy photometric redshifts and k-corrections for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS-DR7), available on the World Wide Web. The photometric redshifts were estimated with an artificial neural network using five ugriz bands, concentration indices and Petrosian radii in the g and r bands. We have explored our redshift estimates with different training sets, thus concluding that the best choice for improving redshift accuracy comprises the main galaxy sample (MGS), the luminous red galaxies and the galaxies of active galactic nuclei covering the redshift range 0 < z < 0.3. For the MGS, the photometric redshift estimates agree with the spectroscopic values within rms = 0.0227. The distribution of photometric redshifts derived in the range 0 < z(phot) < 0.6 agrees well with the model predictions. k-corrections were derived by calibration of the k-correct_v4.2 code results for the MGS with the reference-frame (z = 0.1) (g - r) colours. We adopt a linear dependence of k-corrections on redshift and (g - r) colours that provide suitable distributions of luminosity and colours for galaxies up to redshift z(phot) = 0.6 comparable to the results in the literature. Thus, our k-correction estimate procedure is a powerful, low computational time algorithm capable of reproducing suitable results that can be used for testing galaxy properties at intermediate redshifts using the large SDSS data base.

CONSTRAINING THE NONEXTENSIVE MASS FUNCTION OF HALOS FROM BAO, CMB AND X-RAY DATA

Clusters of galaxies are the most impressive gravitationally-bound systems in the universe, and their abundance (the cluster mass function) is an important statistic to probe the matter density parameter (Omega(m)) and the amplitude of density fluctuations (sigma(8)). The cluster mass function is usually described in terms of the Press-Schecther (PS) formalism where the primordial density fluctuations are assumed to be a Gaussian random field. In previous works we have proposed a non-Gaussian analytical extension of the PS approach with basis on the q-power law distribution (PL) of the nonextensive kinetic theory. In this paper, by applying the PL distribution to fit the observational mass function data from X-ray highest flux-limited sample (HIFLUGCS), we find a strong degeneracy among the cosmic parameters, sigma(8), Omega(m) and the q parameter from the PL distribution. A joint analysis involving recent observations from baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) peak and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) shift parameter is carried out in order to break these degeneracy and better constrain the physically relevant parameters. The present results suggest that the next generation of cluster surveys will be able to probe the quantities of cosmological interest (sigma(8), Omega(m)) and the underlying cluster physics quantified by the q-parameter.

The corotation gap in the Galactic H i distribution

We used the H i data from the LAB Survey to map the ring-shaped gap in H i density that lies slightly outside the solar circle. Adopting R(0) = 7.5 kpc, we find an average gap radius of 8.3 kpc and an average gap width of 0.8 kpc. The characteristics of the H i gap correspond closely to the expected ones, as predicted by theory and by numerical simulations of the gas flow near the corotation resonance.

The occurrence of Laurencia marilzae (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) in Brazil based on morphological and molecular data

Laurencia marilzae is recorded for the first time from the western Atlantic Ocean; it was found in Laje de Santos Marine State Park, Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. The specimens were collected in the rocky subtidal zone from 7 to 15 m depth. The most distinctive characteristic of this species is the presence of corps en cerise in all cells of the thallus, including cortex, medulla, and trichoblasts. The phylogenetic position of the species was inferred by analysis of the chloroplast-encoded rbcL gene sequences from 43 taxa, using two other rhodomelacean taxa and two members of the Ceramiaceae as outgroups. Within the Laurencia assemblage, L. marilzae from Brazil and from the Canary Islands ( type locality) formed a distinctive lineage sister to all other Laurencia species analyzed. Male plants are described for the first time. This study expands the geographical distribution of L. marilzae to the western Atlantic Ocean.

Notes on distribution, variation and characterization of Erythrolamprus pseudocorallus Roze, 1959 (Serpentes: Colubridae) with the first records from Colombia

The Maracaibo false coral snake Erythrolamprus pseudocorallus, previously known only from Venezuela, is recorded from five departments in Colombia. These new data include the westernmost and the southernmost records presently known for the species. Two specimens previously identified as E. aesculapii, from the localities of El Valle, Distrito Federal, Venezuela, and Yarumal, Antioquia, Colombia, are now attributed to E. pseudocorallus, the first one representing the northeasternmost record of the species. Morphological characterization of E. pseudocorallus is expanded based on the new specimens.

Advertisement call, vocal activity, and geographic distribution of Brachycephalus hermogenesi (Giaretta and Sawaya, 1998) (Anura, Brachycephalidae)

Brachycephalus hermogenesi is an endemic leaf litter inhabitant of the Atlantic forest of southeastern Brazil, whose original distribution included a restricted area near the boundaries of the States of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. We were surprised to find out, while conducting herpetofaunal surveys at Estacao Biologica de Boraceia (EBB), that the background forest insect-like sound we have been searching for corresponded to calling individuals of the species. Males call during the day at high densities, hidden under the leaf litter. Individuals do not answer playback, seem to move very infrequently, and seem to ignore nearby calling activity. We gathered data on annual and daily vocal activity of the species at EBB, observing a total of 1,549 calls given by 31 focal individuals in November 2003 and 2005. The call varies from short single note calls to calls composed of groups of two to seven similar notes emitted at regular intervals. We also extend the known distribution of the species southward to the State of Sao Paulo.

Immunocytochemical characterization of the pregeniculate nucleus and distribution of retinal and neuropeptide Y terminals in the suprachiasmatic nucleus of the Cebus monkey

Circadian rhythms generated by the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) are modulated by photic and non-photic stimuli. In rodents, direct photic stimuli reach the SCN mainly through the retinohypothalamic tract (RHT), whereas indirect photic stimuli are mainly conveyed by the geniculohypothalamic tract (GHT). In rodents, retinal cells form a pathway that reaches the intergeniculate leaflet (IGL) where they establish synapses with neurons that express neuropeptide Y (NPY), hence forming the GHT projecting to the SCN. In contrast to the RHT, which has been well described in primates, data regarding the presence or absence of the IGL and GHT in primates are contradictory. Some studies have suggested that an area of the pregeniculate nucleus (PGN) of primates might be homologous to the IGL of rodents, but additional anatomical and functional studies on primate species are necessary to confirm this hypothesis. Therefore, this study investigated the main histochemical characteristics of the PGN and the possible existence of the GHT in the SCN of the primate Cebus, comparing the distribution of NPY immunoreactivity, serotonin (5-HT) immunoreactivity and retinal terminal fibers in these two structures. The results show that a collection of cell bodies containing NPY and serotonergic immunoreactivity and retinal innervations are present within a zone that might be homologous to the IGL of rodents. The SCN also receives dense retinal innervations and we observed an atypical distribution of NPY- and 5-HT-immunoreactive fibers without regionalization in the ventral part of the nucleus as described for other species. These data may reflect morphological differences in the structures involved in the regulation of circadian rhythms among species and support the hypothesis that the GHT is present in some higher primates (diurnal animals). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Malaria on the Amazonian frontier: Transmission dynamics, risk factors, spatial distribution, and prospects for control

Little follow-up data on malaria transmission in communities originating from frontier settlements in Amazonia are available. Here we describe a cohort study in a frontier settlement in Acre, Brazil, where 509 subjects contributed 489.7 person-years of follow-up. The association between malaria morbidity during the follow-up and individual, household, and spatial covariates was explored with mixed-effects logistic regression models and spatial analysis. Incidence rates for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria were 30.0/100 and 16.3/100 person-years at risk, respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly associated with land clearing and farming, and decreased after five years of residence in the area, suggesting that clinical immunity develops among subjects exposed to low malaria endemicity. Significant spatial clustering of malaria was observed in the areas of most recent occupation, indicating that the continuous influx of nonimmune settlers to forest-fringe areas perpetuates the cycle of environmental change and colonization that favors malaria transmission in rural Amazonia.

A Bayesian Analysis in the Presence of Covariates for Multivariate Survival Data: An example of Application

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for survival multivariate data in the presence of a covariate vector and censored observations. Different ""frailties"" or latent variables are considered to capture the correlation among the survival times for the same individual. We assume Weibull or generalized Gamma distributions considering right censored lifetime data. We develop the Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we deal with a Bayesian analysis for right-censored survival data suitable for populations with a cure rate. We consider a cure rate model based on the negative binomial distribution, encompassing as a special case the promotion time cure model. Bayesian analysis is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also present some discussion on model selection and an illustration with a real dataset.

A bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data: local influence and residual analysis

The use of bivariate distributions plays a fundamental role in survival and reliability studies. In this paper, we consider a location scale model for bivariate survival times based on the proposal of a copula to model the dependence of bivariate survival data. For the proposed model, we consider inferential procedures based on maximum likelihood. Gains in efficiency from bivariate models are also examined in the censored data setting. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data. Sensitivity analysis methods such as local and total influence are presented and derived under three perturbation schemes. The martingale marginal and the deviance marginal residual measures are used to check the adequacy of the model. Furthermore, we propose a new measure which we call modified deviance component residual. The methodology in the paper is illustrated on a lifetime data set for kidney patients.