A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Lower Extremities Magnetic Resonance Angiography With Blood Pressure Cuff Compression: Quantitative Dynamic Analysis

Purpose: To quantitatively evaluate changes induced by the application of a femoral blood-pressure cuff (BPC) on run-off magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). which is a method generally previously proposed to reduce venous contamination in the leg. Materials and Methods: This study was Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)- and Institutional Review Board (IRB)-compliant, We used time-resolved gradient-echo gadolinium (Gd)-enhanced MRA to measure BPC effects on arterial, venous, and soft-tissue enhancement. Seven healthy volunteers (six men) were studied with the BPC applied at the mid-femoral level unilaterally using a 1.5T MR system after intravenous injection of Gd-BOPTA. Different statistical tools were used such as the Wilcoxon signed rank test and a cubic smoothing spline fit. Results: We found that BPC application induces delayed venous filling (as previously described), but also induces significant decreases in arterial inflow, arterial enhancement, vascular-soft tissue contrast, and delayed peak enhancement (which have not been previously measured). Conclusion: The potential benefits from using a BPC for run-off MRA must be balanced against the potential pitfalls, elucidated by our findings.

A boundary element formulation for analysis of elastoplastic plates with geometrical nonlinearity

In this paper a new boundary element method formulation for elastoplastic analysis of plates with geometrical nonlinearities is presented. The von Mises criterion with linear isotropic hardening is considered to evaluate the plastic zone. Large deflections are assumed but within the context of small strain. To derive the boundary integral equations the von Karman`s hypothesis is taken into account. An initial stress field is applied to correct the true stresses according to the adopted criterion. Isoparametric linear elements are used to approximate the boundary unknown values while triangular internal cells with linear shape function are adopted to evaluate the domain value influences. The nonlinear system of equations is solved by using an implicit scheme together with the consistent tangent operator derived along the paper. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the validity of the proposed formulation.

Estudo de caso de uma situação atmosférica entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com algumas características semelhantes ao evento Catarina

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise das condições sinótica e dinâmica associadas ao desenvolvimento do ciclone ocorrido entre 12 e 19 de setembro de 2008, com o objetivo de destacar diferenças e semelhanças com o ambiente em que se inseriu o evento Catarina em março de 2004. As principais semelhanças foram encontradas no padrão sinótico geral: a ocorrência de um padrão típico de bloqueio do tipo dipolo associado à anomalia de vorticidade potencial em altos níveis; cavado em níveis médios com inclinação para oeste; a presença de uma coluna de vorticidade ciclônica desde a superfície até a baixa estratosfera; e, em superfície, o padrão de uma alta ao sul de uma baixa pressão. Apesar das semelhanças no padrão geral, diferenças ocorreram entre os dois eventos que influenciaram na intensidade dos sistemas: o Catarina ocorreu em latitudes mais baixas em relação ao caso de setembro de 2008; o padrão típico de bloqueio associado ao caso de setembro de 2008 durou um dia e meio, enquanto no evento Catarina foi de três dias; a configuração da advecção de temperatura na camada entre 1000-500 hPa favoreceu o deslocamento do evento de setembro de 2008 para leste/sudeste, ao contrário do Catarina, a advecção de ar quente a leste do ciclone foi praticamente suprimida e a tendência de altura geopotencial passou a ser positiva, padrões que impedem o deslocamento do sistema para leste; no caso de setembro de 2008 o padrão da inversão do gradiente meridional de temperatura potencial na superfície de -2,0 unidade de vorticidade potencial (UVP) foi caracterizado pela incursão de uma região alongada de ar quente vinda do equador em direção ao sul e ar frio vinda do sul em direção ao equador, enquanto no caso Catarina a inversão ocorre pelo isolamento de uma bolha de ar frio ao norte e uma bolha de ar quente ao sul, o que pode ter contribuído para maior duração do padrão de bloqueio, pois a dissipação neste caso é dificultada. Sistemas como o Catarina podem ser raros no Atlântico Sul, mas isso não ocorre em relação ao ambiente sinótico em que se formou o Catarina. Para melhor entender o processo atmosférico que levou à formação do Catarina, é necessário realizar experimentos numéricos de sensibilidade para o caso de setembro de 2008 com o objetivo de verificar a possibilidade do ciclone extratropical se tornar um ciclone tropical.

The influence of immobilized biomass and particle size on the fluid dynamics of an anaerobic fluidized bed reactor

Fluid dynamic analysis is an important branch of several chemical engineering related areas, such as drying processes and chemical reactors. However, aspects concerning fluid dynamics in wastewater treatment bioreactors still require further investigation, as they highly influence process efficiency. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the influence of biofilm on the reactor fluid dynamic behavior, through the analysis of a few important parameters, such as minimum fluidization velocity, bed expansion and porosity, and particle terminal velocity. The main objective of the present work was to investigate the fluid dynamics of an anaerobic fluidized bed reactor, having activated carbon particles as support media for biomass immobilization. Reactor performance was tested using synthetic residual water, which was prepared using the solution employed in BOD determination. The results showed that the presence of immobilized biomass increased particle density and altered the main fluid dynamic parameters investigated.

Impact of adenosine nucleotide translocase (ANT) proline isomerization on Ca(2+)-induced cysteine relative mobility/mitochondrial permeability transition pore

Mitochondrial membrane carriers containing proline and cysteine, such as adenine nucleotide translocase (ANT), are potential targets of cyclophilin D (CyP-D) and potential Ca(2+)-induced permeability transition pore (PTP) components or regulators; CyP-D, a mitochondrial peptidyl-prolyl cis-trans isomerase, is the probable target of the PTP inhibitor cyclosporine A (CsA). In the present study, the impact of proline isomerization (from trans to cis) on the mitochondrial membrane carriers containing proline and cysteine was addressed using ANT as model. For this purpose, two different approaches were used: (i) Molecular dynamic (MD) analysis of ANT-Cys(56) relative mobility and (ii) light scattering techniques employing rat liver isolated mitochondria to assess both Ca(2+)-induced ANT conformational change and mitochondrial swelling. ANT-Pro(61) isomerization increased ANT-Cys(56) relative mobility and, moreover, desensitized ANT to the prevention of this effect by ADP. In addition, Ca(2+) induced ANT ""c"" conformation and opened PTP; while the first effect was fully inhibited, the second was only attenuated by CsA or ADP. Atractyloside (ATR), in turn, stabilized Ca(2+)-induced ANT ""c"" conformation, rendering the ANT conformational change and PTP opening less sensitive to the inhibition by CsA or ADP. These results suggest that Ca(2+) induces the ANT ""c"" conformation, apparently associated with PTP opening, but requires the CyP-D peptidyl-prolyl cis-trans isomerase activity for sustaining both effects.

Experimental identification of chaotic fibers

In a 2D parameter space, by using nine experimental time series of a Clitia`s circuit, we characterized three codimension-1 chaotic fibers parallel to a period-3 window. To show the local preservation of the properties of the chaotic attractors in each fiber, we applied the closed return technique and two distinct topological methods. With the first topological method we calculated the linking, numbers in the sets of unstable periodic orbits, and with the second one we obtained the symbolic planes and the topological entropies by applying symbolic dynamic analysis. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic behavior analysis of drill-threading process when machining AISI Al-Si-Cu(4) alloy

Conventional threading operations involve two distinct machining processes: drilling and threading. Therefore, it is time consuming for the tools must be changed and the workpiece has to be moved to another machine. This paper presents an analysis of the combined process (drilling followed by threading) using a single tool for both operations: the tap-milling tool. Before presenting the methodology used to evaluate this hybrid tool, the ODS (operating deflection shapes) basics is shortly described. ODS and finite element modeling (FEM) were used during this research to optimize the process aiming to achieve higher stable machining conditions and increasing the tool life. Both methods allowed the determination of the natural frequencies and displacements of the machining center and optimize the workpiece fixture system. The results showed that there is an excellent correlation between the dynamic stability of the machining center-tool holder and the tool life, avoiding a tool premature catastrophic failure. Nevertheless, evidence showed that the tool is very sensitive to work conditions. Undoubtedly, the use of ODS and FEM eliminate empiric decisions concerning the optimization of machining conditions and increase drastically the tool life. After the ODS and FEM studies, it was possible to optimize the process and work material fixture system and machine more than 30,000 threaded holes without reaching the tool life limit and catastrophic fail.

Experimental analysis of wheel/workpiece dynamic interactions in grinding

The aim of this work is to study the wheel/workpiece dynamic interactions in high-speed grinding using vitrified CBN wheel and DTG (difficult to grind) work materials. This problem is typical in the grinding of engine valve heads. The influence of tangential force per abrasive grain was investigated as an important control variable for the determination of G ratio. Experiments were carried out to observe the influence of vibrations in the wheel wear. The measurements of acoustic emission (AE) and vibration signals helped in identifying the correlation between the dynamic interactions (produced by forced random excitation) and the wheel wear. The wheel regenerative chatter phenomenon was observed by using the wheel mapping technique. (c) 2008 CIRP.

Dynamic positioning systems: An experimental analysis of sliding mode control

Vessel dynamic positioning (DP) systems are based on conventional PID-type controllers and an extended Kalman filter. However, they present a difficult tuning procedure, and the closed-loop performance varies with environmental or loading conditions since the dynamics of the vessel are eminently nonlinear. Gain scheduling is normally used to address the nonlinearity of the system. To overcome these problems, a sliding mode control was evaluated. This controller is robust to variations in environmental and loading conditions, it maintains performance and stability for a large range of conditions, and presents an easy tuning methodology. The performance of the controller was evaluated numerically and experimentally in order to address its effectiveness. The results are compared with those obtained from conventional PID controller. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coding behavioural data for cladistic analysis: using dynamic homology without parsimony

Many of the controversies around the concept of homology rest on the subjectivity inherent to primary homology propositions. Dynamic homology partially solves this problem, but there has been up to now scant application of it outside of the molecular domain. This is probably because morphological and behavioural characters are rich in properties, connections and qualities, so that there is less space for conflicting character delimitations. Here we present a new method for the direct optimization of behavioural data, a method that relies on the richness of this database to delimit the characters, and on dynamic procedures to establish character state identity. We use between-species congruence in the data matrix and topological stability to choose the best cladogram. We test the methodology using sequences of predatory behaviour in a group of spiders that evolved the highly modified predatory technique of spitting glue onto prey. The cladogram recovered is fully compatible with previous analyses in the literature, and thus the method seems consistent. Besides the advantage of enhanced objectivity in character proposition, the new procedure allows the use of complex, context-dependent behavioural characters in an evolutionary framework, an important step towards the practical integration of the evolutionary and ecological perspectives on diversity. (C) The Willi Hennig Society 2010.

Dynamic Changes in the Mental Rotation Network Revealed by Pattern Recognition Analysis of fMRI Data

We investigated the temporal dynamics and changes in connectivity in the mental rotation network through the application of spatio-temporal support vector machines (SVMs). The spatio-temporal SVM [Mourao-Miranda, J., Friston, K. J., et al. (2007). Dynamic discrimination analysis: A spatial-temporal SVM. Neuroimage, 36, 88-99] is a pattern recognition approach that is suitable for investigating dynamic changes in the brain network during a complex mental task. It does not require a model describing each component of the task and the precise shape of the BOLD impulse response. By defining a time window including a cognitive event, one can use spatio-temporal fMRI observations from two cognitive states to train the SVM. During the training, the SVM finds the discriminating pattern between the two states and produces a discriminating weight vector encompassing both voxels and time (i.e., spatio-temporal maps). We showed that by applying spatio-temporal SVM to an event-related mental rotation experiment, it is possible to discriminate between different degrees of angular disparity (0 degrees vs. 20 degrees, 0 degrees vs. 60 degrees, and 0 degrees vs. 100 degrees), and the discrimination accuracy is correlated with the difference in angular disparity between the conditions. For the comparison with highest accuracy (08 vs. 1008), we evaluated how the most discriminating areas (visual regions, parietal regions, supplementary, and premotor areas) change their behavior over time. The frontal premotor regions became highly discriminating earlier than the superior parietal cortex. There seems to be a parcellation of the parietal regions with an earlier discrimination of the inferior parietal lobe in the mental rotation in relation to the superior parietal. The SVM also identified a network of regions that had a decrease in BOLD responses during the 100 degrees condition in relation to the 0 degrees condition (posterior cingulate, frontal, and superior temporal gyrus). This network was also highly discriminating between the two conditions. In addition, we investigated changes in functional connectivity between the most discriminating areas identified by the spatio-temporal SVM. We observed an increase in functional connectivity between almost all areas activated during the 100 degrees condition (bilateral inferior and superior parietal lobe, bilateral premotor area, and SMA) but not between the areas that showed a decrease in BOLD response during the 100 degrees condition.

Evaluation of Postpolymerization as a Function of the Storage Time of Triethylene Glycol Dimethacrylate/2,2-Bis[4-(2-Hydroxy-3-Methacryloxy-Prop-1-Oxy)-Phenyl]-propane Bisphenyl-alpha-Glycidyl Ether Dimethacrylate Copolymers Used in Dental Resins by Differential Scanning Calorimetry and Dynamic Mechanical Analysis

The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of the storage time on the thermal properties of triethylene glycol dimethacrylate/2,2-bis[4-(2-hydroxy-3-methacryloxy-prop-1-oxy)-phenyl]propane bisphenyl-alpha-glycidyl ether dimethacrylate (TB) copolymers used in formulations of dental resins after photopolymerization. The TB copolymers were prepared by photopolymerization with an Ultrablue IS light-emitting diode, stored in the dark for 160 days at 37 degrees C, and characterized with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with attenuated total reflection. DSC curves indicated the presence of an exothermic peak, confirming that the reaction was not completed during the photopolymerization process. This exothermic peak became smaller as a function of the storage time and was shifted at higher temperatures. In DMA studies, a plot of the loss tangent versus the temperature initially showed the presence of two well-defined peaks. The presence of both peaks confirmed the presence of residual monomers that were not converted during the photopolymerization process. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Appl Polym Sci 112: 679-684, 2009

Analysis of mangrove forest succession, using sediment cores: a case study in the Cananéia -Iguape coastal system, São Paulo Brazil

Sediment cores are an essential tool for the analysis of the dynamics of mangrove succession. Coring was used to correlate changes in depositional environments and lateral sedimentary facies with discrete stages of forest succession at the Cananéia-Iguape Coastal System in southeastern Brazil. A local level successional pattern was examined based on four core series T1) a sediment bank; T2) a smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora bank; T3) an active mangrove progradation fringe dominated by Laguncularia racemosa, and; T4) a mature mangrove forest dominated by Avicennia schaueriana. Cores were macroscopically described in terms of color, texture, sedimentary structure and organic components. The base of all cores exhibited a similar pattern suggesting common vertical progressive changes in depositional conditions and subsequent successional colonization pattern throughout the forest. The progradation zone is an exposed bank, colonized by S. alterniflora. L. racemosa, replaces S. alterniflora as progradation takes place. As the substrate consolidates A. schaueriana replaces L. racemosa and attains the greatest structural development in the mature forest. Cores collected within the A. schaueriana dominated stand contained S. alterniflora fragments near the base, confirming that a smooth cordgrass habitat characterized the establishment and early seral stages. Cores provide a reliable approach to describe local-level successional sequences in dynamic settings subject to drivers operating on multiple temporal and spatial scales where spatial heterogeneity can lead to multiple equilibria and where similar successional end-points may be reached through convergent paths.