The determinants of default risk in Brazil

We formulated a general unrestricted model of the Brazilian Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) spreads, a proxy for the country`s default risk. Employing algorithms that perform automated model selection, we found that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as current account deficit ratio to gross domestic product, public deficit ratio to gross domestic product and imports over foreign exchange reserves, can explain a great part of the variation in EMBI+ spreads. There is also robust evidence of systematic contagion from Argentina and Mexico and that the variance of the spread also affects its mean.

Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balance-of-payments-constrained macrodynamics

A macrodynamic model is proposed in which the real exchange rate and the elasticity of labour supply interact defining different trajectories of growth and income distribution in a developing economy. Growth depends on imports of capital goods which are paid with exports (there are no capital flows) and hence is constrained by equilibrium in current account. The role of the elasticity of labour supply is to prevent the real exchange rate from appreciating as the economy grows, thereby sustaining international competitiveness. The model allows for endogenous technological change and considers the impact of migration from the subsistence to the modern sector on the cumulative (Kaldor-Verdoorn) process of learning.

Heterogeneity, saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in Latin America

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of national saving-investment relationship in order to determine the degree of capital mobility in 12 Latin American countries. The analytically relevant correlation is the short-term one, defined as that between changes in saving and investment. Of special interest is the speed at which variables return to the long run equilibrium relationship, which is interpreted as being negatively related to the degree of capital mobility. The long run correlation, in turn, captures the coefficient implied by the solvency constraint. We find that heterogeneity and cross-section dependence completely change the estimation of the long run coefficient. Besides we obtain a more precise short run coefficient estimate compared to the existent estimates in the literature. There is evidence of an intermediate degree of capital mobility, and the coefficients are extremely stable over time.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spin-polarized current and shot noise in the presence of spin flip in a quantum dot via nonequilibrium Green's functions

Using nonequilibrium Green's functions we calculate the spin-polarized current and shot noise in a ferromagnet-quantum-dot-ferromagnet system. Both parallel (P) and antiparallel (AP) magnetic configurations are considered. Coulomb interaction and coherent spin flip (similar to a transverse magnetic field) are taken into account within the dot. We find that the interplay between Coulomb interaction and spin accumulation in the dot can result in a bias-dependent current polarization p. In particular, p can be suppressed in the P alignment and enhanced in the AP case depending on the bias voltage. The coherent spin flip can also result in a switch of the current polarization from the emitter to the collector lead. Interestingly, for a particular set of parameters it is possible to have a polarized current in the collector and an unpolarized current in the emitter lead. We also found a suppression of the Fano factor to values well below 0.5.

ADHD in a representative sample of the Brazilian population: estimated prevalence and comparative adequacy of criteria between adolescents and adults according to the item response theory

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a clinically significant disorder in adulthood, but current diagnostic criteria and instruments do not seem to adequately capture the complexity of the disorder in this developmental phase. Accordingly, there are limited data on the proportion of adults affected by the disorder, specially in developing countries. Method: We assessed a representative household sample of the Brazilian population for ADHD with the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale (ASRS) Screener, and evaluated the instrument according to the Rasch model of item response theory. Results: The sample was comprised by 3007 individuals, and the overal prevalence of positive screeners for ADHD was 5.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.8-7.0]. Rasch analyses revealed the misfitt of the overall sample to expectations of the model. The evaluation of the sample stratified by age revealed that data for adolescents showed a signficant fittnes to the model expectations, while items completed by adults were not adequated. Conclusions: The lack of fitness to the model for adult respondents challenges the possibility of a linear transformation of the ordinal data into interval measures and the utilization of parametric analyses of data. This result suggests that diagnostic criteria and instruments for adult ADHD must take into account a developmental perspective. Moreover, it calls for further evaluation of currently employed research methods in light of modern theories of psychometrics. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Confiabilidade da eficiência mastigatória com beads e correlação com a atividade muscular

TEMA: a avaliação da eficiência mastigatória pela análise colorimétrica com beads, pode ser um método promissor, mas não há relatos sobre a sua confiabilidade. OBJETIVO: investigar a confiabiabilidade das beads para teste de eficiência mastigatória e a correlação com a atividade eletromiográfica dos músculos masseter e temporal anterior. MÉTODO: participaram dezenove sujeitos adultos jovens, nove do gênero masculino e dez do feminino com idades entre dezoito e vinte-oito anos, com dentição completa, sem histórico de desordem temporomandibular, trauma, cirurgia na região de cabeça e pescoço, tratamento ortodôntico ou fonoaudiológico. O teste de eficiência mastigatória foi realizado com beads nas condições: mastigação habitual, mastigação unilateral direita e esquerda, com duração de 20 segundos. Simultaneamente, foi realizada a eletromiografia. A atividade em máxima intercuspidação habitual dos dentes também foi registrada. A quantidade de fucsina liberada após a mastigação foi medida usando o espectrofotômetro Beckman DU-7 UV-Visible (Beckman Inc., Palo Alto, CA, USA). RESULTADOS: houve alta confiabilidade do teste de eficiência mastigatória (r = 0,86, p < 0,01) e correlação significante com a atividade eletromiográfica (r = 0,76, p < 0,01). Também houve correlações positivas quando as provas foram analisadas separadamente. CONCLUSÃO: o teste de eficiência mastigatória realizado com beads mostrou-se um método confiável e correlacionado positivamente à atividade eletromiográfica dos músculos temporal anterior e músculos masseter.

Religiosidade, juventude e sexualidade: entre a autonomia e a rigidez

Este artigo descreve como jovens religiosos e autoridades religiosas das respectivas comunidades compreendem a sexualidade, considerando suas experiências pessoais e como membros de comunidades religiosas. A análise pretende contribuir para que políticas públicas dedicadas à promoção da saúde sexual da juventude considerem a religiosidade no contexto de um Estado laico e da promoção do direito à prevenção. Foram realizadas 26 entrevistas abertas e semidirigidas em diferentes comunidades da região metropolitana da cidade de São Paulo (comunidade Católica, de Umbanda, do Candomblé e de diferentes denominações Evangélicas) sobre iniciação sexual, casamento, gravidez, contracepção e prevenção das DSTs/aids, homossexualidade, aborto e direitos humanos. Observou-se como jovens e autoridades religiosas convivem com a tensão entre tradição e modernidade e os distintos discursos sobre a sexualidade. Como sujeitos religiosos (do discurso religioso) e sujeitos sexuais (de discursos sobre sexualidade), devem ser incorporados pelos programas como sujeitos de direito nos termos de sua religiosidade.

Scripts em cena: HIV e mercado sexual no contexto turístico

A atividade turística tem impacto também na saúde das populações de comunidades anfitriãs. Com base em estudo etnográfico e em 14 entrevistas com monitores(as) de turismo ambiental, o objetivo deste artigo é analisar como o cenário sexual no contexto do turismo e seus scripts sexuais constroem a vulnerabilidade de caiçaras às DSTs/HIV e ao mercado sexual. Scripts sexuais tradicionais operacionalizados num cenário de "curtição", "prazer", "desinibição sexual", evidenciaram desigualdades sociais entre caiçaras e turistas que ampliam a vulnerabilidade dos jovens às DSTs/HIV e à mercantilização de sua sexualidade. Os scripts sexuais femininos (passividade/ingenuidade) dificultavam a negociação do preservativo nas cenas sexuais coletadas; os "mais pró-ativos" eram interpretados como disponibilidade para "programas". Os scripts "não negar fogo", "catar as turistas" também ampliavam a vulnerabilidade dos rapazes. O contexto turístico constrói um cenário sexual singular e atravessa as trajetórias socioafetivas dos moradores. Seu impacto deve ser considerado por políticas e programas de saúde locais.

Kerteszia subgenus of Anopheles associated with the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest: current knowledge and future challenges

Background: The Atlantic rainforest ecosystem, where bromeliads are abundant, provides an excellent environment for Kerteszia species, because these anophelines use the axils of those plants as larval habitat. Anopheles (K.) cruzii and Anopheles (K.) bellator are considered the primary vectors of malaria in the Atlantic forest. Although the incidence of malaria has declined in some areas of the Atlantic forest, autochthonous cases are still registered every year, with Anopheles cruzii being considered to be a primary vector of both human and simian Plasmodium. Methods: Recent publications that addressed ecological aspects that are important for understanding the involvement of Kerteszia species in the epidemiology of malaria in the Atlantic rainforest in the Neotropical Region were analysed. Conclusion: The current state of knowledge about Kerteszia species in relation to the Atlantic rainforest ecosystem was discussed. Emphasis was placed on ecological characteristics related to epidemiological aspects of this group of mosquitoes. The main objective was to investigate biological aspects of the species that should be given priority in future studies

Hypothalamic-pituitary axis and peripheral tissue responses to TRH stimulation and Liothyronine suppression tests in normal subjects evaluated by current methods

Objective: To reevaluate the responses of thyrotropin-releasing hormone ( TRH) stimulation test in baseline condition as well as after the administration of graded supraphysiological doses of liothyronine ( L- T-3) in normal subjects. Design: To assess various parameters related to the hypothalamic-pituitary axis and peripheral tissue responses to L- T-3 in 22 normal individuals ( median age: 30.5 years). Subjects were submitted to an intravenous TRH test at baseline condition and also to the oral administration of sequential and graded doses of L- T-3 ( 50, 100, and 200 mu g/day), each given over 3 days, at an outpatient clinic. Blood samples were obtained for thyrotropin (TSH) and prolactin (PRL) at basal and then 15, 30, and 60 minutes after the TRH injection. Effects of L- T3 administration on cholesterol, creatine kinase, retinol, ferritin, and sex hormone-binding globulin ( SHBG) were also measured at basal and after the oral administration of L- T-3. Main outcome: TRH administration resulted in an increase of 4-to 14-fold rise in serum TSH ( 8.3 +/- 2.5-fold), and in a slight rise in serum PRL concentrations ( 3.8 +/- 1.5-fold). Administration of graded doses of triiodothyronine ( T-3) resulted in a dose-dependent suppression of TSH and PRL. Basal thyroxine- binding globulin (TBG) and cholesterol levels decreased, and ferritin and SHBG increased after L- T-3 administration, while creatine kinase and retinol did not change throughout the study. There was a positive correlation between basal TSH and TSH peak response to TRH at basal condition and after each sequential L- T-3 doses. On the other hand, TSH peak response to the TRH test did not predict cholesterol, TBG, ferritin, or SHBG values. Conclusion: Using the current methods on hormone and biochemical analysis, we standardized the response of many parameters to TRH stimulation test after sequential and graded T-3 suppression test in normal subjects. Our data suggest that the evaluation of the responses of the hypothalamus-pituitary axis to TRH test as well as the impact of L- T-3 on peripheral tissues were not modified by the current methods.

Analytical solutions for Tokamak equilibria with reversed toroidal current

In tokamaks, an advanced plasma confinement regime has been investigated with a central hollow electric current with negative density which gives rise to non-nested magnetic surfaces. We present analytical solutions for the magnetohydrodynamic equilibria of this regime in terms of non-orthogonal toroidal polar coordinates. These solutions are obtained for large aspect ratio tokamaks and they are valid for any kind of reversed hollow current density profiles. The zero order solution of the poloidal magnetic flux function describes nested toroidal magnetic surfaces with a magnetic axis displaced due to the toroidal geometry. The first order correction introduces a poloidal field asymmetry and, consequently, magnetic islands arise around the zero order surface with null poloidal magnetic flux gradient. An analytic expression for the magnetic island width is deduced in terms of the equilibrium parameters. We give examples of the equilibrium plasma profiles and islands obtained for a class of current density profile. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3624551]

Neutrino and antineutrino inclusive charged-current cross section measurements with the MINOS near detector

The energy dependence of the neutrino-iron and antineutrino-iron inclusive charged-current cross sections and their ratio have been measured using a high-statistics sample with the MINOS near detector exposed to the NuMI beam from the main injector at Fermilab. Neutrino and antineutrino fluxes were determined using a low hadronic energy subsample of charged-current events. We report measurements of nu-Fe ((nu) over bar - Fe) cross section in the energy range 3-50 GeV (5-50 GeV) with precision of 2%-8% (3%-9%) and their ratio which is measured with precision 2%-8%. The data set spans the region from low energy, where accurate measurements are sparse, up to the high-energy scaling region where the cross section is well understood.

Search for Active Neutrino Disappearance Using Neutral-Current Interactions in the MINOS Long-Baseline Experiment

We report the first detailed comparisons of the rates and spectra of neutral-current neutrino interactions at two widely separated locations. A depletion in the rate at the far site would indicate mixing between nu(mu) and a sterile particle. No anomalous depletion in the reconstructed energy spectrum is observed. Assuming oscillations occur at a single mass-squared splitting, a fit to the neutral- and charged-current energy spectra limits the fraction of nu(mu) oscillating to a sterile neutrino to be below 0.68 at 90% confidence level. A less stringent limit due to a possible contribution to the measured neutral-current event rate at the far site from nu(e) appearance at the current experimental limit is also presented.

Active to Sterile Neutrino Mixing Limits from Neutral-Current Interactions in MINOS

Results are reported from a search for active to sterile neutrino oscillations in the MINOS long-baseline experiment, based on the observation of neutral-current neutrino interactions, from an exposure to the NuMI neutrino beam of 7.07 x 10(20) protons on target. A total of 802 neutral-current event candidates is observed in the Far Detector, compared to an expected number of 754 +/- 28(stat) +/- 37(syst) for oscillations among three active flavors. The fraction f(s) of disappearing nu(mu) that may transition to nu(s) is found to be less than 22% at the 90% C.L.