Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

Genetic-morphometric variation in Culex quinquefasciatus from Brazil and La Plata, Argentina

Variation among natural populations of Culex (Culex) quinquefasciatus Say is associated with different vectorial capacities. The species Cx. quinquefasciatus is present in the equatorial, tropical and subtropical zones in the Brazilian territory, with intermediate forms between Cx. quinquefasciatus and Culex pipiens occurring in regions of latitudes around 33°-35°S. Herein, we studied geographically distinct populations of Cx. quinquefasciatus by genetic characterization and analysis of intra-specific wing morphometrics. After morphological analysis, molecular characterization of Cx. quinquefasciatus and intermediate forms was performed by polymerase chain reaction of the polymorphic nuclear region of the second intron of the acetylcholinesterase locus. Additionally, the morphology of adult female wings collected from six locations was analyzed. Wing centroid sizes were significantly different between some geographical pairs. Mean values of R2/R2+3 differed significantly after pairwise comparisons. The overall wing shape represented by morphometric characters could be divided into two main groupings. Our data suggest that Brazilian samples are morphologically and genetically distinct from the Argentinean samples and also indicated a morphological distinction between northern and southern populations of Brazilian Cx. quinquefasciatus. We suggest that wing morphology may be used for preliminary assessment of population structure of Cx. quinquefasciatusin Brazil