Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

Crise financeira, energia e sustentabilidade no Brasil

A recente crise financeira global traz consigo efeitos como a redução da atividade econômica e, consequentemente, do consumo de energia. Essa pode ser uma importante oportunidade para reorganizar o sistema energético em bases mais sólidas e sustentáveis: a eficiência, a maior participação das fontes renováveis e a descentralização da produção de energia. O Brasil e outros países em desenvolvimento podem aproveitar a experiência dos países desenvolvidos em eficiência energética, complementando com um programa vigoroso em energias renováveis, particularmente as "modernas" (eólica, solar, biomassa e pequenas hidrelétricas). Entretanto, preocupa o cenário inercial nacional, baseado num aumento da participação das fontes fósseis de energia na matriz, na priorização dos recursos à exploração de petróleo e gás natural e na manutenção de padrões insustentáveis de produção e consumo.

Energia, meio ambiente e economia: o Brasil no contexto mundial

The cycle of fossil fuels as an energy source for mankind is approaching its end. Finite resources, coupled with greenhouse gas, have led to an increased effort in the search for alternative renewable energy sources. Brazil has a leading position, due to a 46% participation of renewable sources in its primary energy supply, compared to the global average of 12%. The expansion of the renewable sources in Brazil depends on medium and long term planning, and a large volume of investments. The present financial crisis will have major effects in the energy market. Despite a negative initial impact, it is expected that the rearrangement of the financial system will ultimately lead to an expansion in the use of renewable energy sources. Brazil is a tropical country, with the largest biodiversity in our planet and excellent conditions to expand the use of all forms of renewable sources.

Fatores associados à prática de atividade física global e de lazer em idosos: Inquérito de Saúde no Estado de São Paulo (ISA-SP), Brasil

The purpose of this study was to measure the prevalence of global and leisure-time physical activity and associated factors in the elderly. This was a population-based cross-sectional study covering a multiple-stage sample of 1,950 subjects 60 years or older living in areas of São Paulo State, Brazil. Prevalence of global physical activity (assessed through the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire - IPAQ) was 73.9%, and prevalence of leisure-time physical activity was 28.4%. The results highlight the differences between factors associated with global and leisure-time physical activities. The social groups most prone to overall sedentary lifestyle and especially to lack of leisure-time physical activity should be the main targets of health policies aimed at promoting healthier lifestyles.

Narrowing socioeconomic inequality in child stunting: the Brazilian experience, 1974–2007

Objective To assess trends in the prevalence and social distribution of child stunting in Brazil to evaluate the effect of income and basic service redistribution policies implemented in that country in the recent past. Methods The prevalence of stunting (height-for-age z score below \22122 using the Child Growth Standards of the World Health Organization) among children aged less than 5 years was estimated from data collected during national household surveys carried out in Brazil in 1974\201375 (n = 34 409), 1989 (n = 7374), 1996 (n = 4149) and 2006\201307 (n = 4414). Absolute and relative socioeconomic inequality in stunting was measured by means of the slope index and the concentration index of inequality, respectively. Findings Over a 33-year period, we documented a steady decline in the national prevalence of stunting from 37.1 per cent to 7.1 per cent. Prevalence dropped from 59.0 per cent to 11.2 per cent in the poorest quintile and from 12.1 per cent to 3.3 per cent among the wealthiest quintile. The decline was particularly steep in the last 10 years of the period (1996 to 2007), when the gaps between poor and wealthy families with children under 5 were also reduced in terms of purchasing power; access to education, health care and water and sanitation services; and reproductive health indicators.Conclusion In Brazil, socioeconomic development coupled with equity-oriented public policies have been accompanied by marked improvements in living conditions and a substantial decline in child undernutrition, as well as a reduction of the gap in nutritional status between children in the highest and lowest socioeconomic quintiles. Future studies will show whether these gains will be maintained under the current global economic crisis

Fatores associados à obesidade global e à obesidade abdominal em mulheres na pós-menopausa

OBJETIVOS: avaliar a prevalência de obesidade global e obesidade abdominal, em mulheres pós-menopausa, segundo o grau de instrução, nível de atividade física, uso de terapia hormonal na menopausa (THM) e paridade. MÉTODOS: foram entrevistadas 157 mulheres na pós-menopausa, atendidas em dois ambulatórios públicos da cidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil. A obesidade foi determinada segundo o índice de massa corporal (IMC > 30,0) e segundo o percentual de gordura corporal (%GC > 37%). A obesidade abdominal foi determinada pela relação cintura-quadril (RCQ > 0,85). RESULTADOS: a prevalência de obesidade global foi 34,4% (segundo o IMC) e de 40,1% (segundo o %GC). A prevalência de obesidade abdominal foi de 73,8%. Grande parte das entrevistadas referiu até sete anos de instrução formal (47,8%), foi considerada sedentária ou insuficientemente ativa (52,3%) e nunca tinha utilizado THM oral ou tinha utilizado por menos de 12 meses (72,0%). Foi constatada maior prevalência de obesidade global no grupo de mulheres sedentárias ou insuficientemente ativas e no grupo de não usuárias de THM (p<0,05). Quanto à obesidade abdominal, fator de risco para doenças cardiovasculares (DCV), apenas o grau de instrução mostrou-se associado à RCQ (p<0,05). CONCLUSÕES: mulheres após a menopausa, fisicamente ativas e usuárias de THM exibiram menor prevalência de obesidade global, porém a prevalência de obesidade abdominal foi alta e ainda maior nas mulheres com menor grau de instrução

GLOBAL SOLUTIONS FOR ABSTRACT FUNCTIONAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH NONLOCAL CONDITIONS

In this paper we study the existence of global solutions for a class of abstract functional differential equation with nonlocal conditions. An application is considered.

Global gene expression under nitrogen starvation in Xylella fastidiosa: contribution of the sigma(54) regulon

Background: Xylella fastidiosa, a Gram-negative fastidious bacterium, grows in the xylem of several plants causing diseases such as citrus variegated chlorosis. As the xylem sap contains low concentrations of amino acids and other compounds, X. fastidiosa needs to cope with nitrogen limitation in its natural habitat. Results: In this work, we performed a whole-genome microarray analysis of the X. fastidiosa nitrogen starvation response. A time course experiment (2, 8 and 12 hours) of cultures grown in defined medium under nitrogen starvation revealed many differentially expressed genes, such as those related to transport, nitrogen assimilation, amino acid biosynthesis, transcriptional regulation, and many genes encoding hypothetical proteins. In addition, a decrease in the expression levels of many genes involved in carbon metabolism and energy generation pathways was also observed. Comparison of gene expression profiles between the wild type strain and the rpoN null mutant allowed the identification of genes directly or indirectly induced by nitrogen starvation in a sigma(54)-dependent manner. A more complete picture of the sigma(54) regulon was achieved by combining the transcriptome data with an in silico search for potential sigma(54)-dependent promoters, using a position weight matrix approach. One of these sigma(54)-predicted binding sites, located upstream of the glnA gene (encoding glutamine synthetase), was validated by primer extension assays, confirming that this gene has a sigma(54)-dependent promoter. Conclusions: Together, these results show that nitrogen starvation causes intense changes in the X. fastidiosa transcriptome and some of these differentially expressed genes belong to the sigma(54) regulon.

Global gene expression profile in myelodysplastic syndromes using SAGE

The molecular pathogenesis of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is poorly understood. In order to expand our knowledge of genetic defects in MDS, we determined the overall profile of genes expressed in bone marrow from patients with refractory anemia with excess blasts ( RAEB) by serial analysis of gene expression ( SAGE). The present report describes a partial transcriptome of RAEB bone marrow derived from 56,694 sequenced tags that provides information about expressed gene products. This is the first attempt to determine an overall profile of gene expression specifically in RAEB at diagnosis using SAGE, which should be useful in the understanding of the physiopathology of MDS and in identifying the genes involved.

Sequential analysis of global gene expression profiles in immature and in vitro matured bovine oocytes: potential molecular markers of oocyte maturation

Background: Without intensive selection, the majority of bovine oocytes submitted to in vitro embryo production (IVP) fail to develop to the blastocyst stage. This is attributed partly to their maturation status and competences. Using the Affymetrix GeneChip Bovine Genome Array, global mRNA expression analysis of immature (GV) and in vitro matured (IVM) bovine oocytes was carried out to characterize the transcriptome of bovine oocytes and then use a variety of approaches to determine whether the observed transcriptional changes during IVM was real or an artifact of the techniques used during analysis. Results: 8489 transcripts were detected across the two oocyte groups, of which similar to 25.0% (2117 transcripts) were differentially expressed (p < 0.001); corresponding to 589 over-expressed and 1528 under-expressed transcripts in the IVM oocytes compared to their immature counterparts. Over expression of transcripts by IVM oocytes is particularly interesting, therefore, a variety of approaches were employed to determine whether the observed transcriptional changes during IVM were real or an artifact of the techniques used during analysis, including the analysis of transcript abundance in oocytes in vitro matured in the presence of a-amanitin. Subsets of the differentially expressed genes were also validated by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and the gene expression data was classified according to gene ontology and pathway enrichment. Numerous cell cycle linked (CDC2, CDK5, CDK8, HSPA2, MAPK14, TXNL4B), molecular transport (STX5, STX17, SEC22A, SEC22B), and differentiation (NACA) related genes were found to be among the several over-expressed transcripts in GV oocytes compared to the matured counterparts, while ANXA1, PLAU, STC1and LUM were among the over-expressed genes after oocyte maturation. Conclusion: Using sequential experiments, we have shown and confirmed transcriptional changes during oocyte maturation. This dataset provides a unique reference resource for studies concerned with the molecular mechanisms controlling oocyte meiotic maturation in cattle, addresses the existing conflicting issue of transcription during meiotic maturation and contributes to the global goal of improving assisted reproductive technology.

Cyclic variability of the circumstellar disk of the Be star zeta Tauri II. Testing the 2D global disk oscillation model

Context. About 2/3 of the Be stars present the so-called V/R variations, a phenomenon characterized by the quasi-cyclic variation in the ratio between the violet and red emission peaks of the HI emission lines. These variations are generally explained by global oscillations in the circumstellar disk forming a one-armed spiral density pattern that precesses around the star with a period of a few years. Aims. This paper presents self-consistent models of polarimetric, photometric, spectrophotometric, and interferometric observations of the classical Be star zeta Tauri. The primary goal is to conduct a critical quantitative test of the global oscillation scenario. Methods. Detailed three-dimensional, NLTE radiative transfer calculations were carried out using the radiative transfer code HDUST. The most up-to-date research on Be stars was used as input for the code in order to include a physically realistic description for the central star and the circumstellar disk. The model adopts a rotationally deformed, gravity darkened central star, surrounded by a disk whose unperturbed state is given by a steady-state viscous decretion disk model. It is further assumed that this disk is in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results. By adopting a viscous decretion disk model for zeta Tauri and a rigorous solution of the radiative transfer, a very good fit of the time-average properties of the disk was obtained. This provides strong theoretical evidence that the viscous decretion disk model is the mechanism responsible for disk formation. The global oscillation model successfully fitted spatially resolved VLTI/AMBER observations and the temporal V/R variations in the H alpha and Br gamma lines. This result convincingly demonstrates that the oscillation pattern in the disk is a one-armed spiral. Possible model shortcomings, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are also discussed.

The constancy of global regulation across a species: the concentrations of ppGpp and RpoS are strain-specific in Escherichia coli

Background: Sigma factors and the alarmone ppGpp control the allocation of RNA polymerase to promoters under stressful conditions. Both ppGpp and the sigma factor sigma(S) (RpoS) are potentially subject to variability across the species Escherichia coli. To find out the extent of strain variation we measured the level of RpoS and ppGpp using 31 E. coli strains from the ECOR collection and one reference K-12 strain. Results: Nine ECORs had highly deleterious mutations in rpoS, 12 had RpoS protein up to 7-fold above that of the reference strain MG1655 and the remainder had comparable or lower levels. Strain variation was also evident in ppGpp accumulation under carbon starvation and spoT mutations were present in several low-ppGpp strains. Three relationships between RpoS and ppGpp levels were found: isolates with zero RpoS but various ppGpp levels, strains where RpoS levels were proportional to ppGpp and a third unexpected class in which RpoS was present but not proportional to ppGpp concentration. High-RpoS and high-ppGpp strains accumulated rpoS mutations under nutrient limitation, providing a source of polymorphisms. Conclusions: The ppGpp and sigma(S) variance means that the expression of genes involved in translation, stress and other traits affected by ppGpp and/or RpoS are likely to be strain-specific and suggest that influential components of regulatory networks are frequently reset by microevolution. Different strains of E. coli have different relationships between ppGpp and RpoS levels and only some exhibit a proportionality between increasing ppGpp and RpoS levels as demonstrated for E. coli K-12.

Nonquadratic gauge fixing and global gauge invariance in the effective action

The possibility of having a gauge fixing term in the effective Lagrangian that is not a quadratic expression has been explored in spin-two theories so as to have a propagator that is both traceless and transverse. We first show how this same approach can be used in spontaneously broken gauge theories as an alternate to the 't Hooft gauge fixing which avoids terms quadratic in the scalar fields. This ""nonquadratic"" gauge fixing in the effective action results in two complex fermionic and one real bosonic ghost field. A global gauge invariance involving a fermionic gauge parameter, analogous to the usual Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin invariance, is present in this effective action.

Energy gain induced by boundary crisis

We consider a nonlinear system and show the unexpected and surprising result that, even for high dissipation, the mean energy of a particle can attain higher values than when there is no dissipation in the system. We reconsider the time-dependent annular billiard in the presence of inelastic collisions with the boundaries. For some magnitudes of dissipation, we observe the phenomenon of boundary crisis, which drives the particles to an asymptotic attractive fixed point located at a value of energy that is higher than the mean energy of the nondissipative case and so much higher than the mean energy just before the crisis. We should emphasize that the unexpected results presented here reveal the importance of a nonlinear dynamics analysis to explain the paradoxical strategy of introducing dissipation in the system in order to gain energy.