Poly-bagging predictors for classification modelling for credit scoring

Credit scoring modelling comprises one of the leading formal tools for supporting the granting of credit. Its core objective consists of the generation of a score by means of which potential clients can be listed in the order of the probability of default. A critical factor is whether a credit scoring model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the client as a good or bad payer. In this context the concept of bootstraping aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the fitted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper we propose a new bagging-type variant procedure, which we call poly-bagging, consisting of combining predictors over a succession of resamplings. The study is derived by credit scoring modelling. The proposed poly-bagging procedure was applied to some different artificial datasets and to a real granting of credit dataset up to three successions of resamplings. We observed better classification accuracy for the two-bagged and the three-bagged models for all considered setups. These results lead to a strong indication that the poly-bagging approach may promote improvement on the modelling performance measures, while keeping a flexible and straightforward bagging-type structure easy to implement. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.

Pricing corporate bonds in Brazil: 2000 to 2004

This paper analyzes the factors that influence the issuing price of debentures in Brazil in the period from year 2000 to 2004, applying a factor model, in which exogenous variables explain return and price behavior. The variables in this study include: rating, choice of index, maturity, country risk, basic interest rate, long-term and short-term rate spread, the stock market index, and the foreign exchange rate. Results indicate that the index variable, probability of default and bond`s maturity influence pricing and points out associations of long-term bonds with better rating issues. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The determinants of default risk in Brazil

We formulated a general unrestricted model of the Brazilian Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) spreads, a proxy for the country`s default risk. Employing algorithms that perform automated model selection, we found that macroeconomic fundamentals, such as current account deficit ratio to gross domestic product, public deficit ratio to gross domestic product and imports over foreign exchange reserves, can explain a great part of the variation in EMBI+ spreads. There is also robust evidence of systematic contagion from Argentina and Mexico and that the variance of the spread also affects its mean.

White matter microstructure underlying default mode network connectivity in the human brain

Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) reveals a distinct network of correlated brain function representing a default mode state of the human brain The underlying structural basis of this functional connectivity pattern is still widely unexplored We combined fractional anisotropy measures of fiber tract integrity derived from diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) and resting state fMRI data obtained at 3 Tesla from 20 healthy elderly subjects (56 to 83 years of age) to determine white matter microstructure e 7 underlying default mode connectivity We hypothesized that the functional connectivity between the posterior cingulate and hippocampus from resting state fMRI data Would be associated with the white matter microstructure in the cingulate bundle and fiber tracts connecting posterior cingulate gyrus With lateral temporal lobes, medial temporal lobes, and precuneus This was demonstrated at the p<0001 level using a voxel-based multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) approach In addition, we used a data-driven technique of joint independent component analysis (ICA) that uncovers spatial pattern that are linked across modalities. It revealed a pattern of white matter tracts including cingulate bundle and associated fiber tracts resembling the findings from the hypothesis-driven analysis and was linked to the pattern of default mode network (DMN) connectivity in the resting state fMRI data Out findings support the notion that the functional connectivity between the posterior cingulate and hippocampus and the functional connectivity across the entire DMN is based oil distinct pattern of anatomical connectivity within the cerebral white matter (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

Avaliação do estado nutricional dos idosos residentes em Fortaleza/CE: o uso de diferentes indicadores antropométricos

O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar, utilizando diferentes indicadores antropométricos, o estado nutricional dos idosos de Fortaleza. Este estudo é de base populacional, do tipo transversal, com coleta de dados primários. As variáveis antropométricas analisadas foram: índice de massa corporal (IMC), dobra cutânea tricipital (DCT) e circunferência muscular do braço (CMB). O estado nutricional foi definido a partir dos diagnósticos obtidos com a análise das variáveis antropométricas: eutrófico (idoso, no qual as três variáveis antropométricas (IMC, DCT e CMB), simultaneamente, indicassem o estado de eutrofia, segundo os padrões adotados) e não eutrófico (demais idosos). Foram selecionados 385 domicílios para comporem a amostra deste estudo, nos quais foram entrevistados 483 idosos (68% mulheres). Quanto ao IMC, 47,3% do total de idosos foram considerados eutróficos. As mulheres apresentaram maior proporção de valores de IMC excessivo (21,9%), quando comparadas aos homens (13,5%). Foi verificada associação estatisticamente significativa entre adequação de IMC e sexo. Os valores de DCT mostraram que 54,4% do total de idosos eram eutróficos. Não houve associação estatisticamente significativa entre a adequação da DCT e sexo. Quanto à CMB, os homens apresentaram maior prevalência de desnutrição (66,5%), quando comparados às mulheres (40,6%). Foi verificada associação estatisticamente significativa entre adequação da CMB e sexo. Ao verificar o estado nutricional por meio das variáveis antropométricas, observou-se que 83,9% dos homens foram considerados não eutróficos, assim como maior parte das mulheres (74,2%). Foi observada associação estatisticamente significativa entre estado nutricional e sexo. Os idosos de Fortaleza apresentam estado nutricional vulnerável, visto as prevalências de não eutróficos

Análise técnica e econômica de prestadores de serviços na colheita florestal

The objective of this Study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results In the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

POPREP: a generic report for population management

Genetic variation provides a basis upon which populations can be genetically improved. Management of animal genetic resources in order to minimize loss of genetic diversity both within and across breeds has recently received attention at different levels, e. g., breed, national and international levels. A major need for sustainable improvement and conservation programs is accurate estimates of population parameters, such as rate of inbreeding and effective population size. A software system (POPREP) is presented that automatically generates a typeset report. Key parameters for population management, such as age structure, generation interval, variance in family size, rate of inbreeding, and effective population size form the core part of this report. The report includes a default text that describes definition, computation and meaning of the various parameters. The report is summarized in two pdf files, named Population Structure and Pedigree Analysis Reports. In addition, results (e. g., individual inbreeding coefficients, rate of inbreeding and effective population size) are stored in comma-separate-values files that are available for further processing. Pedigree data from eight livestock breeds from different species and countries were used to describe the potential of POPREP and to highlight areas for further research.

Near-barrier quasielastic scattering as a sensitive tool to derive nuclear matter diffuseness

Quasielastic excitation functions for the (16,18)O + (60)Ni systems were measured at energies near and below the Coulomb barrier, at the backward angle theta(LAB) = 161 degrees. The corresponding quasielastic barrier distributions were derived. The data were compared with predictions from coupled channel calculations using a double-folding potential as a bare potential. For the (16)O-induced scattering, good agreement was obtained for the barrier distribution by using the projectile default nuclear matter diffuseness obtained from the Sao Paulo potential systematic, that is, 0.56 fm. However, for the (18)O-induced scattering, good agreement was obtained only when the projectile nuclear matter diffuseness was changed to 0.62 fm. Therefore, in this paper we show how near-barrier quasielastic scattering can be used as a sensitive tool to derive nuclear matter diffuseness.

City tuberculosis control coordinators` perspectives of patient adherence to DOT in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, 2005

SETTING: Thirty-six priority cities in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, with a high incidence of tuberculosis (TB) cases, deaths and treatment default. OBJECTIVE: To identify the perspectives of city TB control coordinators regarding the most important components of adherence strategies adopted by health care teams to ensure patient adherence in 36 priority cities in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. DESIGN: Qualitative research with semi-structured interviews conducted with the coordinators of the National TB Control Programme involved in the management of TB treatment services in the public sector. RESULTS: The main issues thought to influence adherence to directly observed treatment (DOT) by coordinators include incentives and benefits delivered to patients, patient-health care worker bonding and comprehensive care, the encouragement given by others to follow treatment (family, neighbours and health professionals), and help provided by health professionals for patients to recover their self-esteem. CONCLUSION: The main aspects mentioned by city TB control coordinators regarding patient adherence to treatment and to DOT in Sao Paulo are improvements in communications, relationships based on trust, a humane approach and including the patients in the decision-making process concerning their health.

Tax Cost of Investment Projects: the case of ICMS credits

This article discusses the impact on the profitability of firms under Complementary Law 102/2000 (which abrogated the Law 89/96 - Kandir Law) allowing the appropriation of ICMS credits, due to investment in fixed assets goods, at a ratio of 1/48 per month. The paper seeks to demonstrate how this new system - which resulted in the transformation of the ICMS as a value added tax (VAT) consumption-type to an income-type - leads to a loss of approximately 30% of the value of credits to be recovered and the effect it generates on the cost of investment and the profits for small, medium and large firms. From the methodological point of view, it is a descriptive and quantitative research, which proceeded in three stages. Initially, we have obtained estimated value of net sales and volume of investments, based on report Painel de Competitividade prepared by the Federacao das Indtustrias do Estado de Sao Paulo (Fiesp/Serasa). Based on this information, it was possible to obtain estimates of the factors of generation of debits and credits for ICMS, using the model Credit Control of Fixed Assets (CIAP). Finally, we have calculated three indicators: (i) present value of debt recovery/value of credits, (ii) present value of debt recovery / investment value, (iii) present value of debt recovery / sales profitability. We have conclude that the system introduced by Complementary Law 102/2000 implicates great opportunity cost for firms and that legislation should be reviewed from this perspective, aiming to ensure lower costs associated with investment projects.

Soil Organic Carbon Stocks of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Robust and accurate regional estimates of C storage in soils are currently an important research topic because of ongoing debate about human-induced changes in the terrestrial C cycle. Widely available geoprocessing tools were applied to estimate native soil organic C (SOC) stocks of Rio Grande do Sul state in southern Brazil to a depth of 30 cm from previously sampled soil pedons under undisturbed vegetation. The study used a statewide comprehensive soil survey comprising a small-scale soil map, a climate map, and a soil pedon database. Soil organic C stocks under native vegetation were calculated with two different approaches: the Tier 1 method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a refined method based on actual field measurements derived from soil profile data. Highest SOC stocks occurred in Neossolos Quartzarenico hidromorfico (Aquents), Organossolos Tiomorficos (Hemists), Latossolos Brunos (Udox), and Vertissolos Ebanicos (Uderts) soil classes. Before human use of soils, most C was stored in the Latossolos Vermelhos (Udox) and Neossolos Regoliticos (Orthents), which occupy a large area of Rio Grande do Sul. Generally, IPCC default reference SOC stocks compared well with SOC stocks calculated from soil pedons. The total SOC stock of Rio Grande do Sul was estimated at 1510.3 Tg C (5.8 kg C m(-2)) by the IPPC method and 1597.5 +/- 363.9 Tg C (7.4 +/- 1.9 kg C m(-2)) calculated from soil pedons. The SOC digital map and SOC database developed in this study provide crucial background information for state-level contemporary assessment of C stocks and soil C sequestration programs and initiatives.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies` Sacrifice Ratios

Using data from OECD economies, we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters. We also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely. Applying Heckman`s procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations.

Social Movements Beyond the Iron Cage: Weak Ties in Territorial Development

The incentives and governance system of organizations are important in explaining how they behave in localized development processes. This article builds on the observation that the literature on territorial development does not generally address the action of social movements. At the same time, research on social movements rarely studies their effects on the territories ill which they act. This text is a contribution to fill this gap. It compares two social movement organizations: a trade union federation and a credit cooperative system operating throughout southern Brazil, Both organizations share common origins and social bases, yet their impacts oil territories have been quite different. The analysis focuses Oil the social ties that link trade unions and cooperatives to their territories to show that governance systems may explain the performance of each organization, especially with regard to their capacity for innovation. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.