A Cost-Benefit Analysis on Modulation Formats for 40-Gb/s Optical Communication Systems

This article discusses possible approaches for optical network capacity upgrade by considering the use of different modulation formats at 40 Gb/s. First, a performance evaluation is carried out regarding tolerance to three impairments: spectral narrowing due to filter cascading, chromatic dispersion, and self-phase modulation. Next, a cost-benefit analysis is conducted, considering the specific optoelectronic components required for the optical transmitter/receiver configuration of each format.

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

Background: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used Methods: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. Results: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. Conclusions: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia.

Programa preventivo da cárie dentária baseado no controle mecânico da placa bacteriana em crianças, por meio da profilaxia profissional periódica: Resultados após 25 anos de acompanhamento

OBJETIVOS: o objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar a incidência de cárie dentária em um programa de prevenção aplicado durante 25 anos em clínica particular. METODOLOGIA: participaram desse programa 640 crianças de ambos os gêneros, na faixa etária de 3 a 15 anos de idade. O programa foi baseado no controle mecânico da placa bacteriana dentária por meio da profilaxia profissional com jato de bicarbonato de sódio com uma periodicidade mensal. A incidência de cárie foi verificada por meio de exames clínicos durante as sessões de atendimento e radiográficos anualmente. A média de idade das crianças ao ingressarem no programa foi de 7,8 anos. RESULTADOS: antes de ingressar no programa, as crianças apresentaram, em média, 5,3 faces cariadas, enquanto após o programa a média foi de 0,18. A incidência de cáries por ano antes do programa foi de 0,9 faces cariadas e durante o programa de 0,03. O tempo de permanência das crianças no programa foi, em média, de 52,6 meses, e a média de faltas foi de 0,5 falta por ano. Esses resultados demonstram o sucesso do programa, principalmente por ter uma filosofia que procura o equilíbrio da biodiversidade da cavidade bucal, sem o risco de produzir efeitos colaterais indesejáveis. CONCLUSÕES: conclui-se, assim, que esse parece ser o caminho mais curto para resolver o problema da cárie dentária, ou seja, o controle mecânico da placa bacteriana dentária através da profilaxia profissional mensal, pois é um método de prevenção possível de ser aplicado em qualquer criança, independentemente de suas condições psicomotoras e sociais, e que proporciona a melhor relação custo-benefício, além de estar de acordo com os conceitos mais atuais de cárie e de seus fatores etiológicos. Em função da faixa etária das crianças, o programa é de suma importância para clínicas de Odontopediatria e Ortodontia.

Qualidade da água para consumo humano e concentração de fluoreto

O artigo visa analisar a concentração de fluoreto na água para consumo humano, considerando o balanço entre benefícios e riscos à saúde, e produzir subsídios para atualização da legislação brasileira. Estudos de revisão sistemática, documentos oficiais e dados meteorológicos foram examinados. As temperaturas nas capitais brasileiras indicam que o fluoreto deveria variar de 0,6 a 0,9 mg/L para prevenir cárie dentária. Concentração de fluoreto natural de 1,5 mg/L é tolerável para consumo no Brasil se não houver tecnologia de custo-benefício aceitável para ajuste/remoção do seu excesso. A ingestão diária de água com fluoreto em concentração > 0,9 mg/L representa risco à dentição em menores de oito anos de idade e os consumidores deveriam ser expressamente informados desse risco. Considerando a expansão do programa nacional de fluoretação da água para regiões de clima tipicamente tropical, deve-se revisar a Portaria 635/75, relacionada ao fluoreto adicionado às águas de abastecimento público.

Análise TG-ROC de testes de imunofluorescência no diagnóstico de leishmaniose visceral canina

OBJETIVO: Analisar a acurácia do diagnóstico de dois protocolos de imunofluorescência indireta para leishmaniose visceral canina. MÉTODOS: Cães provenientes de inquérito soroepidemiológico realizado em área endêmica nos municípios de Araçatuba e de Andradina, na região noroeste do estado de São Paulo, em 2003, e área não endêmica da região metropolitana de São Paulo, foram utilizados para avaliar comparativamente dois protocolos da reação de imunofluorescência indireta (RIFI) para leishmaniose: um utilizando antígeno heterólogo Leishmania major (RIFI-BM) e outro utilizando antígeno homólogo Leishmania chagasi (RIFI-CH). Para estimar acurácia utilizou-se a análise two-graph receiver operating characteristic (TG-ROC). A análise TG-ROC comparou as leituras da diluição 1:20 do antígeno homólogo (RIFI-CH), consideradas como teste referência, com as diluições da RIFI-BM (antígeno heterólogo). RESULTADOS: A diluição 1:20 do teste RIFI-CH apresentou o melhor coeficiente de contingência (0,755) e a maior força de associação entre as duas variáveis estudadas (qui-quadrado=124,3), sendo considerada a diluição-referência do teste nas comparações com as diferentes diluições do teste RIFI-BM. Os melhores resultados do RIFI-BM foram obtidos na diluição 1:40, com melhor coeficiente de contingência (0,680) e maior força de associação (qui-quadrado=80,8). Com a mudança do ponto de corte sugerido nesta análise para a diluição 1:40 da RIFI-BM, o valor do parâmetro especificidade aumentou de 57,5% para 97,7%, embora a diluição 1:80 tivesse apresentado a melhor estimativa para sensibilidade (80,2%) com o novo ponto de corte. CONCLUSÕES: A análise TG-ROC pode fornecer importantes informações sobre os testes de diagnósticos, além de apresentar sugestões sobre pontos de cortes que podem melhorar as estimativas de sensibilidade e especificidade do teste, e avaliá-los a luz do melhor custo-benefício.

Low-Level Laser Intensity Application in Masseter Muscle for Treatment Purposes

Objective: This study evaluated with histochemical analysis how the number of laser applications can affect the masseter muscle. Background: In dentistry today, the laser is used in patients with temporomandibular disorders (TMDs), mainly for radiating pain in the masticatory muscles, whose origins may be associated with malocclusion, although the laser effects are not well understood on the cellular level. Materials and Methods: Thirty mice (HRS/J lineage) were randomly distributed into groups according to the number of laser applications (three, six, and 10). For each group of laser applications (experimental, n = 5), it was considered the control group (n = 5), which was not irradiated. All animals inhaled halothane (2-bromo-2-chloro-1, 1, 1-trifluoroethane, minimum 99%, Sigma Aldrich, India) before each laser irradiation performed on the left masseter muscle region, on alternate days with 20 J/cm(2), 40mW, for 20 sec. The muscle samples were collected for histochemical analysis with succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) enzyme 72 h after the last application. Results: (a) A decrease in area of light fibers type (35.91% +/- 6.9%; 32.08% +/- 6.3%, and 27.88% +/- 6.3%), according to the increase of laser applications (p < 0.05); (b) significant increase (p < 0.05) in the area of intermediate fibers, with an increase of laser application (11.08% +/- 3.9%; 16.52% +/- 5.7%, and 15.96% +/- 3.9%), although the increase with 10 applications was small; (c) area increase of dark fibers in the group with three laser applications (0.16% +/- 0.3%) (p < 0.05), and in groups with six and 10 laser applications, respectively (9.68% +/- 6.0% and 9.60% +/- 4.0%). Conclusions: The SDH enzyme activity revealed that the number of laser applications increases the metabolic pattern of the muscle fibers. A minimal difference in metabolic activity between six and 10 applications of a laser suggests that further analyses should be done to confirm that six applications are enough to produce the same clinical effects, thereby contributing data to professionals from different fields in regard to the cost-benefit ratio of this therapy.

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A NEUROECONOMIC MODELING OF ATTENTION-DEFICIT/HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER (ADHD)

In this paper we present a new neuroeconomics model for decision-making applied to the Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The model is based on the hypothesis that decision-making is dependent on the evaluation of expected rewards and risks assessed simultaneously in two decision spaces: the personal (PDS) and the interpersonal emotional spaces (IDS). Motivation to act is triggered by necessities identified in PDS or IDS. The adequacy of an action in fulfilling a given necessity is assumed to be dependent on the expected reward and risk evaluated in the decision spaces. Conflict generated by expected reward and risk influences the easiness (cognitive effort) and the future perspective of the decision-making. Finally, the willingness (not) to act is proposed to be a function of the expected reward (or risk), adequacy, easiness and future perspective. The two most frequent clinical forms are ADHD hyperactive (AD/HDhyp) and ADHD inattentive (AD/HDdin). AD/HDhyp behavior is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for short periods of time, low risk evaluation, and short future perspective for decision-making. AD/HDin is hypothesized to be a consequence of experiencing high rewarding expectancies for long periods of time, low risk evaluation, and long future perspective for decision-making.

Cardiovascular Risk and Clinical Factors in Athletes: 10 Years of Evaluation

DE MATOS, L. D. N. J., N. D. A. O. CALDEIRA, P. D. S. PERLINGEIRO, I. L. G. DOS SANTOS, C. E. NEGRAO and L. F. AZEVEDO. Cardiovascular Risk and Clinical Factors in Athletes: 10 Years of Evaluation. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc., Vol. 43, No. 6, pp. 943-950, 2011. Purpose: Preparticipation screening in athletes is a very current but controversial theme. Part of this controversy is due to the cost benefit, especially when the screening is merely used as a prevention of sudden cardiac death caused by rare and hereditary diseases. The purpose of this study was to describe the prevalence of preexisting diseases, cardiovascular risk factor for cardiovascular diseases development, and hematological profile in a population of amateur and professional athletes. Methods: Data of 623 athletes (529 men and 94 women), aged 13-77 yr, were analyzed to detect preexisting diseases. The variables total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, triglycerides, fasting glucose, body mass index, hemoglobin, hematocrit, and ferritin were analyzed in two groups according to age, that is, younger and older 35 yr old, and their prevalence (%) and distribution in quartiles were presented. chi(2) test and Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients between variables were applied, and P < 0.05 was adopted for significance. Results: Hypertension was the most prevalent preexisting diseases, although the data showed low prevalence of cardiomyopathy. Cardiovascular risk factors were prevalent in both genders. There were positive correlations between cardiovascular risk factors and age and between body mass index and lipid levels in male athletes. Also, there was a high prevalence of low ferritin levels for women, with positive correlation between the levels of hemoglobin and ferritin. Conclusions: In the present study, hypertension was the most prevalent diagnosed disease, and cardiovascular risk factors showed important prevalence, especially in athletes older than 35 yr. Although physical training represents a cardioprotective factor to the onset of cardiovascular disease, it does not exclude the prevalence of risk factors and diseases in athletes.

Comparing methods for sampling large- and medium-sized mammals: camera traps and track plots

Activities involving fauna monitoring are usually limited by the lack of resources; therefore, the choice of a proper and efficient methodology is fundamental to maximize the cost-benefit ratio. Both direct and indirect methods can be used to survey mammals, but the latter are preferred due to the difficulty to come in sight of and/or to capture the individuals, besides being cheaper. We compared the performance of two methods to survey medium and large-sized mammal: track plot recording and camera trapping, and their costs were assessed. At Jatai Ecological Station (S21 degrees 31`15 ``- W47 degrees 34`42 ``-Brazil) we installed ten camera traps along a dirt road directly in front of ten track plots, and monitored them for 10 days. We cleaned the plots, adjusted the cameras, and noted down the recorded species daily. Records taken by both methods showed they sample the local richness in different ways (Wilcoxon, T=231; p;;0.01). The track plot method performed better on registering individuals whereas camera trapping provided records which permitted more accurate species identification. The type of infra-red sensor camera used showed a strong bias towards individual body mass (R(2)=0.70; p=0.017), and the variable expenses of this method in a 10-day survey were estimated about 2.04 times higher compared to track plot method; however, in a long run camera trapping becomes cheaper than track plot recording. Concluding, track plot recording is good enough for quick surveys under a limited budget, and camera trapping is best for precise species identification and the investigation of species details, performing better for large animals. When used together, these methods can be complementary.

Cost-Effectiveness of Palliation of Unresectable Esophageal Cancer

Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood vaccination against varicella in Brazil

This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood universal varicella vaccination program in Brazil. An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of varicella for 30 years. Assuming a single-dose schedule; vaccine efficacy of 85% and coverage of 80%, the program could prevent 74,422,058 cases and 2905 deaths. It would cost R$ 3,178,396,110 and save R$ 660,076,410 to the society and R$ 365,602,305 to the healthcare system. The program is cost-effective (R$ 14,749 and R$ 16,582 per life-year saved under the societal and the healthcare system`s perspective, respectively). The program`s cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the vaccine price and number of doses. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Change and Aging Senescence as an Adaptation

Understanding why we age is a long-lived open problem in evolutionary biology. Aging is prejudicial to the individual, and evolutionary forces should prevent it, but many species show signs of senescence as individuals age. Here, I will propose a model for aging based on assumptions that are compatible with evolutionary theory: i) competition is between individuals; ii) there is some degree of locality, so quite often competition will be between parents and their progeny; iii) optimal conditions are not stationary, and mutation helps each species to keep competitive. When conditions change, a senescent species can drive immortal competitors to extinction. This counter-intuitive result arises from the pruning caused by the death of elder individuals. When there is change and mutation, each generation is slightly better adapted to the new conditions, but some older individuals survive by chance. Senescence can eliminate those from the genetic pool. Even though individual selection forces can sometimes win over group selection ones, it is not exactly the individual that is selected but its lineage. While senescence damages the individuals and has an evolutionary cost, it has a benefit of its own. It allows each lineage to adapt faster to changing conditions. We age because the world changes.

Low and moderate, rather than high intensity strength exercise induces benefit regarding plasma lipid profile

Background: The effects of chronic aerobic exercise upon lipid profile has been previously demonstrated, but few studies showed this effect under resistance exercise conditions. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the effects of different resistance exercise loads on blood lipids. Methods: Thirty healthy, untrained male volunteers were allocated randomly into four groups based at different percentages of one repetition maximum (1 RM); 50%-1 RM, 75%-1 RM, 90%-1 RM, and 110%-1 RM. The total volume (sets x reps x load) of the exercise was equalized. The lipid profile (Triglycerides [TG], HDL-cholesterol [HDL-c], LDL-cholesterol, and Total cholesterol) was determined at rest and after 1, 24, 48 and 72 h of resistance exercise. Results: The 75%-1 RM group demonstrated greater TG reduction when compared to other groups (p < 0.05). Additionally, the 110%-1 RM group presented an increased TG concentration when compared to 50% and 75% groups (p = 0.01, p = 0.01, respectively). HDL-c concentration was significantly greater after resistance exercise in 50%-1 RM and 75%-1 RM when compared to 110%-1 RM group (p = 0.004 and p = 0.03, respectively). Accordingly, the 50%-1 RM group had greater HDL-c concentration than 110%-1 RM group after 48 h (p = 0.05) and 72 h (p = 0.004), respectively. Finally, The 50% group has showed lesser LDL-c concentration than 110% group after 24 h (p = 0.007). No significant difference was found in Total Cholesterol concentrations. Conclusion: These results indicate that the acute resistance exercise may induce changes in lipid profile in a specific-intensity manner. Overall, low and moderate exercise intensities appear to be promoting more benefits on lipid profile than high intensity. Long term studies should confirm these findings.

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.