Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

Análise econômica comparativa de empresas de água mineral quanto ao porte

This work makes a comparative economic analysis of a small-, medium- and large-sized mineral water company, the three of which are localized in the State of Sao Paulo. All have the same lines of production such as glasses, bottles and big bottles. The analysis involves the cash flow comparison of the three companies.

STRUCTURAL INTERDEPENDENCE AMONG COLOMBIAN DEPARTMENTS

This paper analyzes structural interdependence among Colombian departments. The results show that Bogota has a large influence on the other regional economies through the power of its purchases. Additionally, a center-periphery pattern emerges in the spatial concentration of the effects of the hypothetical extraction of any territory. From a policy point of view, the main findings reaffirm the role played by Bogota in the recent polarization process observed in the regional economies in Colombia. Any policy action oriented to reduce these regional disparities should take into account that, given the structural interdependence among Colombian departments, the effects of new investment in the lagged regions would flow through Bogota and the major regional economies.

Loss of Ergodicity in the Transition from Annealed to Quenched Disorder in a Finite Kinetic Ising Model

We consider a kinetic Ising model which represents a generic agent-based model for various types of socio-economic systems. We study the case of a finite (and not necessarily large) number of agents N as well as the asymptotic case when the number of agents tends to infinity. The main ingredient are individual decision thresholds which are either fixed over time (corresponding to quenched disorder in the Ising model, leading to nonlinear deterministic dynamics which are generically non-ergodic) or which may change randomly over time (corresponding to annealed disorder, leading to ergodic dynamics). We address the question how increasing the strength of annealed disorder relative to quenched disorder drives the system from non-ergodic behavior to ergodicity. Mathematically rigorous analysis provides an explicit and detailed picture for arbitrary realizations of the quenched initial thresholds, revealing an intriguing ""jumpy"" transition from non-ergodicity with many absorbing sets to ergodicity. For large N we find a critical strength of annealed randomness, above which the system becomes asymptotically ergodic. Our theoretical results suggests how to drive a system from an undesired socio-economic equilibrium (e. g. high level of corruption) to a desirable one (low level of corruption).

Comparative study of chemical and mechanical retentive systems for bonding of indirect composite resin to commercially pure titanium

This study evaluated the effect of chemical and mechanical surface treatments for cast metal alloys on the bond strength of an indirect composite resin (Artglass) to commercially pure titanium (cpTi). Thirty cylindrical metal rods (3 mm diameter x 60 mm long) were cast in grade-1 cpTi and randomly assigned to 6 groups (n=5) according to the received surface treatment: sandblasting; chemical treatment; mechanical treatment - 0.4 mm beads; mechanical treatment - 0.6 mm beads; chemical/mechanical treatment - 0.4 mm; and chemical/mechanical treatment - 0.6 mm beads. Artglass rings (6.0 mm diameter x 2.0 mm thick) were light cured around the cpTi rods, according manufacturer's specifications. The specimens were invested in hard gypsum and their bond strength (in MPa) to the rods was measured at fracture with a universal testing machine at a crosshead speed of 2.0 mm/min and 500 kgf load cell. Data were analyzed statistically by one-way ANOVA and Tukey test (a=5%). The surface treatments differed significantly from each other (p<0.05) regarding the recorded bond strengths. Chemical retention and sandblasting showed statistically similar results to each other (p=0.139) and both had significantly lower bond strengths (p<0.05) than the other treatments. In conclusion, mechanical retention, either associated or not to chemical treatment, provided higher bond strength of the indirect composite resin to cpTi.

Comparative study of laser and LED systems of low intensity applied to tendon healing

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of Low-intensity Laser Therapy (LILT) and Light Emitting Diode Therapy (LEDT) of low intensity on the treatment of lesioned Achilles tendon of rats. The experimental model consisted of a partial mechanical lesion on the right Achilles tendon deep portion of 90 rats. One hour after the lesion, the injured animals received applications of laser/LED (685, 830/630, 880 nm), and the same procedure was repeated at 24-h intervals, for 10 days. The healing process and deposition of collagen were evaluated based on a polarization microscopy analysis of the alignment and organization of collagen bundles, through the birefringence (optical retardation-OR). The results showed a real efficiency of treatments based on LEDT and confirmed that LILT seems to be effective on healing process. Although absence of coherence of LED light, tendon healing treatment with this feature was satisfactory and can certainly replace treatments based on laser light applications. Applications of infrared laser at 830 nm and LED 880 nm were more efficient when the aim is a good organization, aggregation, and alignment of the collagen bundles on tendon healing. However, more research is needed for a safety and more efficient determination of a protocol with LED.

CHARACTERIZATION OF AGROINDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE SUCRO-ENERGETIC SECTORS OF BRASIL AND COLOMBIA

Concern about the growing demand of food and fuel has focused the attention on countries with conditions to provide for global requirements. Also, the build-up of an environmental awareness has compelled several governments to implement programs for the addition of biofuels to oil derivatives. Considering their relevance as world and South American producers, this study makes a characterization of the sucro-energetic sectors of Brazil and Colombia, based on a view of agro-industrial systems, industrial organization and transaction cost economy. The approach followed considered of a secondary information survey and in-depth interviews. The main differences found are centered on institutional development level and production volumes. However, the use of the same raw material, sugarcane, trade opening policies, cultural approaches and regional integration, are factors that could generate links of commercial exchange and technological cooperation between the two countries.

Consumo alimentar e ecologia de populações ribeirinhas em dois ecossistemas amazônicos: um estudo comparativo

OBJETIVO: Este artigo analisa e compara os dados de consumo alimentar de duas populações ribeirinhas da Amazônia vivendo em ecossistemas contrastantes de floresta tropical: a várzea estacional e a floresta de terra firme. MÉTODOS: Foi estudado o consumo alimentar de 11 unidades domésticas na várzea (Ilha de Ituqui, Município de Santarém) e 17 na terra firme (Floresta Nacional de Caxiuanã, Municípios de Melgaço e Portel). O método utilizado foi o recordatório de 24 horas. As análises estatísticas foram executadas com o auxílio do programa Statistical Package for Social Sciences 12.0. RESULTADOS: Em ambos os ecossistemas, os resultados confirmam a centralidade do pescado e da mandioca na dieta local. Porém, a contribuição de outros itens alimentares secundários, tais como o açaí (em Caxiuanã) e o leite in natura (em Ituqui), também foi significante. Além disso, o açúcar revelou ser uma fonte de energia confiável para enfrentar as flutuações sazonais dos recursos naturais. Parece haver ainda uma maior contribuição energética dos peixes para a dieta de Ituqui, provavelmente em função da maior produtividade dos rios e lagos da várzea em relação à terra firme. Por fim, Ituqui revelou uma maior dependência de itens alimentares comprados, enquanto Caxiuanã mostrou estar ainda bastante vinculada à agricultura e às redes locais de troca. CONCLUSÃO: Além dos resultados confirmarem a importância do pescado e da mandioca, também mostraram que produtos industrializados, como o açúcar, têm um papel importante nas dietas, podendo apontar para tendências no consumo alimentar relacionadas com a atual transição nutricional e com a erosão, em diferentes níveis, dos sistemas de subsistência locais.

A comparative study of GERIPA ethanol with other fuels

The GERIPA project aimed at generating renewable energy integrated with food production has led to a beneficial option for producing ethanol and electricity. Ethanol has economic, social and environmental potential. Considering just the first one, Brazil consumes 39 billion litres per year-L(D)/yr of diesel oil, 18% of it being imported. The Federal Government has a recovery programme for the soybean agribusiness aimed at soybean biodiesel (SBD) production in which a 10% addition to diesel has been proposed. This 10% involves producing 10.7 million L(SB)/d. Soybean bio-diesel production is not self-sustainable and such proposal could require an annual subsidy of up to US$1.33 billion. Soybean plantations would need about 10 to 12 times more land than is necessary for sugarcane plantations to produce the same equivalent thermal energy (ETE). Sixty-seven GERIPA projects (GP) producing 80,000 litres of ethanol per day (GP80) could be set up with the sum of US$1.33 billion; this would substitute current Brazilian biodiesel demand by 4.28%, adding the some value for each new subsidiary. Considering ETE, ethanol-GP cost would be 37% to 50% below that for a litre of SBD on account of its raw material (RM) and region. The diesel cycle`s thermal efficiency (eta(1)) yield is around 50% and that of the Otto cycle engine eta(1) is around 37%. The cost per km driven (CKD) by substituting SBD for ethanol-GP80 would thus indicate an 18% minimum and 59% maximum cost reduction for vehicle engines.

Extended Fault-Location Formulation for Power Distribution Systems

In this paper, an extended impedance-based fault-location formulation for generalized distribution systems is presented. The majority of distribution feeders are characterized by having several laterals, nonsymmetrical lines, highly unbalanced operation, and time-varying loads. These characteristics compromise traditional fault-location methods performance. The proposed method uses only local voltages and currents as input data. The current load profile is obtained through these measurements. The formulation considers load variation effects and different fault types. Results are obtained from numerical simulations by using a real distribution system from the Electrical Energy Distribution State Company of Rio Grande do Sul (CEEE-D), Southern Brazil. Comparative results show the technique robustness with respect to fault type and traditional fault-location problems, such as fault distance, resistance, inception angle, and load variation. The formulation was implemented as embedded software and is currently used at CEEE-D`s distribution operation center.

Further improvements on impedance-based fault location for power distribution systems

In this study, further improvements regarding the fault location problem for power distribution systems are presented. The proposed improvements relate to the capacitive effect consideration on impedance-based fault location methods, by considering an exact line segment model for the distribution line. The proposed developments, which consist of a new formulation for the fault location problem and a new algorithm that considers the line shunt admittance matrix, are presented. The proposed equations are developed for any fault type and result in one single equation for all ground fault types, and another equation for line-to-line faults. Results obtained with the proposed improvements are presented. Also, in order to compare the improvements performance and demonstrate how the line shunt admittance affects the state-of-the-art impedance-based fault location methodologies for distribution systems, the results obtained with two other existing methods are presented. Comparative results show that, in overhead distribution systems with laterals and intermediate loads, the line shunt admittance can significantly affect the state-of-the-art methodologies response, whereas in this case the proposed developments present great improvements by considering this effect.

Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Supercritical steam cycles and biomass integrated gasification combined cycles for sugarcane mills

Back in 1970s and 1980s, cogeneration plants in sugarcane mills were primarily designed to consume all bagasse, and produce steam and electricity to the process. The plants used medium pressure steam boilers (21 bar and 300 degrees C) and backpressure steam turbines. Some plants needed also an additional fuel, as the boilers were very inefficient. In those times, sugarcane bagasse did not have an economic value, and it was considered a problem by most mills. During the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, sugarcane industry faced an open market perspective, thus, there was a great necessity to reduce costs in the production processes. In addition, the economic value of by-products (bagasse, molasses, etc.) increased, and there was a possibility of selling electricity to the grid. This new scenario led to a search for more advanced cogeneration systems, based mainly on higher steam parameters (40-80 bar and 400-500 degrees C). In the future, some authors suggest that biomass integrated gasification combined cycles are the best alternative to cogeneration plants in sugarcane mills. These systems might attain 35-40% efficiency for the power conversion. However, supercritical steam cycles might also attain these efficiency values, what makes them an alternative to gasification-based systems. This paper presents a comparative thermoeconomic study of these systems for sugarcane mills. The configurations studied are based on real systems that could be adapted to biomass use. Different steam consumptions in the process are considered, in order to better integrate these configurations in the mill. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pleiotropic Effects With Equivalent Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Reduction: Comparative Study Between Simvastatin and Simvastatin/Ezetimibe Coadministration

Background: Coadministration of any statin with ezetimibe is as effective as using high doses of the same statin in the reduction Of tow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c). There may be other effects called pleiotropics. Objective: To compare the effectiveness of 2 different treatments that obtain equivalent LDL-c reductions (80 mg of simvastatin, once a clay and coadministration of 10 mg of simvastatin and 10 mg of ezetimibe, once a day) over endothelial function and inflammation. Methods: Twenty-three randomized patients with hypercholesterolemia in a 2 X 2 crossover protocol were Studied. Endothelial function was analyzed by ultrasound assessment of endothelial dependent flow-mediated vasodilation of the brachial artery, and inflammation was estimated by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Results: LDL-c reduction was similar between the 2 treatments with simvastatin/ezetimibe and with simvastatin (P < 0.001); no difference between treatments was found (P = 0.968). Both treatments improved significantly the endothelial function [3.61% with simvastatin/ezetimibe (P = 0.003) and 5.08%. with simvastatin (P < 0.001)]; no difference was found between the 2 treatments (P = 0.291). hs-CRP had a 23% reduction with simvastatin/ezetimibe (P = 0.004) and a 30% reduction with simvastatin alone (P = 0.01), with no significant difference between the 2 treatments (P = 0.380). Conclusion: The 2 forms of treatment presented similar pleiotropic effects: improvement in endothelial function and decrease in hsCRP levels.

Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.