Using non-homogeneous Poisson models with multiple change-points to estimate the number of ozone exceedances in Mexico City

In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Microbiological indicators for the assessment of performance in the hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) system in meat lasagna production

The HACCP system is being increasingly used to ensure food safety. This study investigated the validation of the control measures technique in order to establish performance indicators of this HACCP system in the manufacturing process of Lasagna Bolognese (meat lasagna). Samples were collected along the manufacturing process as a whole, before and after the CCPs. The following microorganism s indicator (MIs) was assessed: total mesophile and faecal coliform counts. The same MIs were analyzed in the final product, as well as, the microbiological standards required by the current legislation. A significant reduction in the total mesophile count was observed after cooking (p < 0.001). After storage, there was a numerical, however non-significant change in the MI count. Faecal coliform counts were also significantly reduced (p < 0.001) after cooking. We were able to demonstrate that the HACCP system allowed us to meet the standards set by both, the company and the Brazilian regulations, proved by the reduction in the established indicators

Parametric change in the grammatical encoding of indirect objects in Brazilian Portuguese

This paper examines the syntax of indirect objects (IO) in Brazilian Portuguese (BP). Adopting a comparative perspective we propose that BP differs from European Portuguese (EP) in the grammatical encoding of IO. In EP ditransitive contexts, IO is found in two configurations - one projected by a (low) applicative head and another one involving a lexical/true preposition. We propose that the former property is contingent upon the presence of dative Case marking: namely, the morpheme `a` that introduces IO (a-DP), whose corresponding clitic pronoun is `lhe/lhes`. In contrast, important changes in the pronominal system, coupled with the increase in the use of the preposition `para` are taken as evidence for the loss of the low applicative construction in BP. Thus only the configuration with the lexical/true preposition is found in (Standard) BP. We argue that the innovative properties of IO in BP are due to the loss of the (3rd person) dative clitic and the preposition `a` as dative Case markers. Under this view, we further account for the realization of IO as a DP/weak pronoun, found in dialects of the central region of Brazil, which points to a similarity with the English Double Object Construction. Finally we show that the connection between the morphological expression of the dative Case and the expression of parameters supports a view of syntactic change according to which parametric variation is determined in the lexicon, in terms of the formal features of functional heads.

Instability of equilibrium points of some Lagrangian systems

In this work we show that, if L is a natural Lagrangian system such that the k-jet of the potential energy ensures it does not have a minimum at the equilibrium and such that its Hessian has rank at least n - 2, then there is an asymptotic trajectory to the associated equilibrium point and so the equilibrium is unstable. This applies, in particular, to analytic potentials with a saddle point and a Hessian with at most 2 null eigenvalues. The result is proven for Lagrangians in a specific form, and we show that the class of Lagrangians we are interested can be taken into this specific form by a subtle change of spatial coordinates. We also consider the extension of this results to systems subjected to gyroscopic forces. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of contamination of endodontic absorbent paper points

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to assess the contamination status of endodontic absorbent paper points from sterilized or not sterilized commercial packs, as well as paper points exposed to the dental office environment. METHODS: Twenty absorbent paper points were evaluated for contamination status packed under different conditions: commercial/sterilized pack, commercial/non-sterilized pack, exposed to the clinical environment, and intentionally contaminated (positive control). Contamination was determined qualitatively and quantitatively by aerobiosis, capnophilic growth, and pour plate. The Petri dishes were analyzed with a colony counter, and the results were expressed as colony-forming units. The data were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis test (α=0.05). RESULTS: No difference in colony-forming units was found among the groups of endodontic absorbent paper points. All groups were contaminated by fungi and bacteria. CONCLUSION: It can be concluded that the sterilization of absorbent endodontic paper points before clinical use should be recommended regardless of commercial presentation

Análise TG-ROC de testes de imunofluorescência no diagnóstico de leishmaniose visceral canina

OBJETIVO: Analisar a acurácia do diagnóstico de dois protocolos de imunofluorescência indireta para leishmaniose visceral canina. MÉTODOS: Cães provenientes de inquérito soroepidemiológico realizado em área endêmica nos municípios de Araçatuba e de Andradina, na região noroeste do estado de São Paulo, em 2003, e área não endêmica da região metropolitana de São Paulo, foram utilizados para avaliar comparativamente dois protocolos da reação de imunofluorescência indireta (RIFI) para leishmaniose: um utilizando antígeno heterólogo Leishmania major (RIFI-BM) e outro utilizando antígeno homólogo Leishmania chagasi (RIFI-CH). Para estimar acurácia utilizou-se a análise two-graph receiver operating characteristic (TG-ROC). A análise TG-ROC comparou as leituras da diluição 1:20 do antígeno homólogo (RIFI-CH), consideradas como teste referência, com as diluições da RIFI-BM (antígeno heterólogo). RESULTADOS: A diluição 1:20 do teste RIFI-CH apresentou o melhor coeficiente de contingência (0,755) e a maior força de associação entre as duas variáveis estudadas (qui-quadrado=124,3), sendo considerada a diluição-referência do teste nas comparações com as diferentes diluições do teste RIFI-BM. Os melhores resultados do RIFI-BM foram obtidos na diluição 1:40, com melhor coeficiente de contingência (0,680) e maior força de associação (qui-quadrado=80,8). Com a mudança do ponto de corte sugerido nesta análise para a diluição 1:40 da RIFI-BM, o valor do parâmetro especificidade aumentou de 57,5% para 97,7%, embora a diluição 1:80 tivesse apresentado a melhor estimativa para sensibilidade (80,2%) com o novo ponto de corte. CONCLUSÕES: A análise TG-ROC pode fornecer importantes informações sobre os testes de diagnósticos, além de apresentar sugestões sobre pontos de cortes que podem melhorar as estimativas de sensibilidade e especificidade do teste, e avaliá-los a luz do melhor custo-benefício.

A escolha do cônjuge

Enfocando os tópicos namoro e noivado, idade ao casar e diferenças de idade entre os cônjuges, este artigo caminha por três grandes períodos históricos: o período colonial; o século XIX até finais do XX; e o início do século XXI. Trata-se de uma análise transdisciplinar dos pontos de vista histórico, social, demográfico, legal e jurídico, focalizando o desenrolar dessas situações seja por persistências e/ou mudanças; quem e quais são os atores envolvidos e sua importância nas escolhas dos futuros nubentes. No início, a seleção era fundada no parentesco e no território, privilegiando a grande rede familiar solidária no enfrentamento das dificuldades de sobrevivência. Com os avanços da industrialização, da urbanização, da tecnologia e de comunicação, além do crescimento da importância das pessoas, as escolhas foram se transformando, diminuindo a dependência da estrutura familiar e aumentando a escolha pessoal e afetiva, influenciadas pelas variadas formas de mudança social, demográfica, jurídica.

Factors associated with stages of change for red meat and vegetable intake by Japanese-Brazilians

Stages of change assess individual motivation for lifestyle changes, contributing to the development of more effective intervention strategies. The objective of the present study was to identify factors associated with stages of change for lower intake of red meat and higher intake of vegetables in a cross-sectional analysis of 578 Japanese-Brazilians aged 30-90 years. In adjusted logistic regression models, the odds ratios for women (OR = 1.89; 95%CI: 1.154; 3.103) and physically active individuals (OR = 1.00; 95%CI: 1.000; 1.001) were positively associated with stage of "action" for the higher intake of vegetables. Inverse associations were observed between central obesity (OR = 0.5; 95%CI: 0.351; 0.887) and highest tertile of red meat intake (OR = 0.50; 95%CI: 0.302; 0.817), as well as a positive association between age (OR = 1.04; 95%CI: 1.020; 1.070) and the stage of "action" to the lower intake of meat were verified. Motivation for Japanese-Brazilians to change their food intake was linked to lifestyle. Stage of change is an important factor in mediating food intake behavior change.

Características de carcaça de ovelhas de descarte das raças Ideal e Texel terminadas em dois sistemas de alimentação

Avaliaram-se as características de carcaça de ovelhas de descarte das raças Ideal e Texel terminadas em dois sistemas de alimentação. Utilizaram-se 20 ovelhas (10 da raça Ideal e 10 da raça Texel) aleatoriamente distribuídas de acordo com o grupo genético em dois manejos alimentares (confinamento e pastagem cultivada). Os abates foram realizados quando os animais atingiram 3,5 pontos de condição corporal. Os pesos de carcaça quente (PCQ) e de carcaça fria (PCF) e os rendimentos de carcaça quente (RCQ) e de carcaça fria (RCF) das ovelhas Texel foram maiores que os das ovelhas Ideal: 27,85 e 19,04 kg; 27,08 e 18,43 kg; 47,25 e 45,20% e 45,95 e 43,72%, respectivamente. O peso dos cortes perna, paleta, pescoço e costela e os pesos de músculos, ossos e gordura da perna dos animais da raça Texel foram superiores aos obtidos na raça Ideal. Quando avaliadas em porcentagem do peso corporal, no entanto, essas características não diferiram entre as duas raças. O manejo alimentar não influenciou as características de carcaça de ovelhas de descarte. Ovelhas Texel apresentam cortes maiores que os de ovelhas Ideal.

Change and Aging Senescence as an Adaptation

Understanding why we age is a long-lived open problem in evolutionary biology. Aging is prejudicial to the individual, and evolutionary forces should prevent it, but many species show signs of senescence as individuals age. Here, I will propose a model for aging based on assumptions that are compatible with evolutionary theory: i) competition is between individuals; ii) there is some degree of locality, so quite often competition will be between parents and their progeny; iii) optimal conditions are not stationary, and mutation helps each species to keep competitive. When conditions change, a senescent species can drive immortal competitors to extinction. This counter-intuitive result arises from the pruning caused by the death of elder individuals. When there is change and mutation, each generation is slightly better adapted to the new conditions, but some older individuals survive by chance. Senescence can eliminate those from the genetic pool. Even though individual selection forces can sometimes win over group selection ones, it is not exactly the individual that is selected but its lineage. While senescence damages the individuals and has an evolutionary cost, it has a benefit of its own. It allows each lineage to adapt faster to changing conditions. We age because the world changes.

Visual Feedforward Control in Human Locomotion During Avoidance of Obstacles that Change Size

The purpose of the current study was to understand how visual information about an ongoing change in obstacle size is used during obstacle avoidance for both lead and trail limbs. Participants were required to walk in a dark room and to step over an obstacle edged with a special tape visible in the dark. The obstacle's dimensions were manipulated one step before obstacle clearance by increasing or decreasing its size. Two increasing and two decreasing obstacle conditions were combined with seven control static conditions. Results showed that information about the obstacle's size was acquired and used to modulate trail limb trajectory, but had no effect on lead limb trajectory. The adaptive step was influenced by the time available to acquire and process visual information. In conclusion, visual information about obstacle size acquired during lead limb crossing was used in a feedforward manner to modulate trail limb trajectory.

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

A simplified minimal residual disease polymerase chain reaction method at early treatment points can stratify children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia into good and poor outcome groups

Background Minimal residual disease is an important independent prognostic factor in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The classical detection methods such as multiparameter flow cytometry and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis are expensive, time-consuming and complex, and require considerable technical expertise. Design and Methods We analyzed 229 consecutive children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated according to the GBTLI-99 protocol at three different Brazilian centers. Minimal residual disease was analyzed in bone marrow samples at diagnosis and on days 14 and 28 by conventional homo/heteroduplex polymerase chain reaction using a simplified approach with consensus primers for IG and TCR gene rearrangements. Results At least one marker was detected by polymerase chain reaction in 96.4%, of the patients. By combining the minimal residual disease results obtained on days 14 and 28, three different prognostic groups were identified: minimal residual disease negative on days 14 and 28, positive on day 14/negative on day 28, and positive on both. Five-year event-free survival rates were 85%, 75.6%,, and 27.8%, respectively (p<0.0001). The same pattern of stratification held true for the group of intensively treated children. When analyzed in other subgroups of patients such as those at standard and high risk at diagnosis, those with positive B-derived CD10, patients positive for the TEL/AML1 transcript, and patients in morphological remission on a day 28 marrow, the event-free survival rate was found to be significantly lower in patients with positive minimal residual disease on day 28. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the detection of minimal residual disease on day 28 is the most significant prognostic factor. Conclusions This simplified strategy for detection of minimal residual disease was feasible, reproducible, cheaper and simpler when compared with other methods, and allowed powerful discrimination between children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia with a good and poor outcome.

A Paradigm Shift in Predoctoral Dental Curricula in Brazil: Evaluating the Process of Change

In 2002, the Brazilian Ministry of Education approved the official curricular guidelines for undergraduate courses in Brazil to be adopted by the nation's 188 dental schools. In 2005-06, the Brazilian Dental Education Association (BDEA) promoted workshops in forty-eight of the schools to verify the degree of transformation of the curriculum based on these guidelines. Among the areas analyzed were course philosophy (variables were v1: knowledge production based on the needs of the Brazilian Public Health System [BPHS]; v2: health determinants; and v3: postgraduate studies and permanent education); pedagogical skills (v4: curricular structure; v5: changes in pedagogic and didactic skills; and v6: course program orientation); and dental practice scenarios (v7: diversity of the scenarios for training/learning; v8: academic health care centers opened to the BPHS; and v9: participation of students in health care delivery for the population). The subjects consisted of faculty members (n=711), students (n=228), and employees (n=14). The results showed an incipient degree of curriculum transformation. The degree of innovation was statistically different depending on the type of university (public or private) for variables I, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7. Private schools reported a higher level of innovation than public institutions. Resistance to transforming the dental curriculum according to the official guidelines may be linked to an ideological conception that supports the private practice model, continues to have faculty members direct all classroom activities, and prevents students from developing an understanding of professional practice as targeted towards the oral health needs of all segments of society.

Large change in the predicted number of small halos due to a small amplitude oscillating inflaton potential

A smooth inflaton potential is generally assumed when calculating the primordial power spectrum, implicitly assuming that a very small oscillation in the inflaton potential creates a negligible change in the predicted halo mass function. We show that this is not true. We find that a small oscillating perturbation in the inflaton potential in the slow-roll regime can alter significantly the predicted number of small halos. A class of models derived from supergravity theories gives rise to inflaton potentials with a large number of steps and many trans-Planckian effects may generate oscillations in the primordial power spectrum. The potentials we study are the simple quadratic (chaotic inflation) potential with superimposed small oscillations for small field values. Without leaving the slow-roll regime, we find that for a wide choice of parameters, the predicted number of halos change appreciably. For the oscillations beginning in the 10(7)-10(8) M(circle dot) range, for example, we find that only a 5% change in the amplitude of the chaotic potential causes a 50% suppression of the number of halos for masses between 10(7)-10(8) M(circle dot) and an increase in the number of halos for masses <10(6) M(circle dot) by factors similar to 15-50. We suggest that this might be a solution to the problem of the lack of observed dwarf galaxies in the range 10(7)-10(8) M(circle dot). This might also be a solution to the reionization problem where a very large number of Population III stars in low mass halos are required.