2 resultados para Change points

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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In this paper, we consider some non-homogeneous Poisson models to estimate the probability that an air quality standard is exceeded a given number of times in a time interval of interest. We assume that the number of exceedances occurs according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP). This Poisson process has rate function lambda(t), t >= 0, which depends on some parameters that must be estimated. We take into account two cases of rate functions: the Weibull and the Goel-Okumoto. We consider models with and without change-points. When the presence of change-points is assumed, we may have the presence of either one, two or three change-points, depending of the data set. The parameters of the rate functions are estimated using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results are applied to ozone data provided by the Mexico City monitoring network. In a first instance, we assume that there are no change-points present. Depending on the adjustment of the model, we assume the presence of either one, two or three change-points. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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In this work we show that, if L is a natural Lagrangian system such that the k-jet of the potential energy ensures it does not have a minimum at the equilibrium and such that its Hessian has rank at least n - 2, then there is an asymptotic trajectory to the associated equilibrium point and so the equilibrium is unstable. This applies, in particular, to analytic potentials with a saddle point and a Hessian with at most 2 null eigenvalues. The result is proven for Lagrangians in a specific form, and we show that the class of Lagrangians we are interested can be taken into this specific form by a subtle change of spatial coordinates. We also consider the extension of this results to systems subjected to gyroscopic forces. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.