A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The web of connections between tourism companies: Structure and dynamics

Tourism destination networks are amongst the most complex dynamical systems, involving a myriad of human-made and natural resources. In this work we report a complex network-based systematic analysis of the Elba (Italy) tourism destination network, including the characterization of its structure in terms of several traditional measurements, the investigation of its modularity, as well as its comprehensive study in terms of the recently reported superedges approach. In particular, structural (the number of paths of distinct lengths between pairs of nodes, as well as the number of reachable companies) and dynamical features (transition probabilities and the inward/outward activations and accessibilities) are measured and analyzed, leading to a series of important findings related to the interactions between tourism companies. Among the several reported results, it is shown that the type and size of the Companies influence strongly their respective activations and accessibilities, while their geographical position does not seem to matter. It is also shown that the Elba tourism network is largely fragmented and heterogeneous, so that it could benefit from increased integration. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.