6 resultados para CLIMATIC-CHANGE

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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Conforme previsões do último relatório do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change) em 2007, até meados deste século haverá um aumento na concentração de CO2 na atmosfera podendo chegar a 720 μmol mol-1. Consequentemente haverá uma elevação da temperatura de até +3 °C, o que ocorrerá em conjunto com mudanças no padrão de precipitação. O mesmo relatório sugere que isto poderá acarretar uma substituição gradual da floresta tropical por vegetação similar a uma savana na parte oriental da Amazônia, porém nada é conclusivo. Diante dessas possibilidades, pergunta-se - Como as espécies de árvores que compõem as regiões de alagamento da Amazônia irão responder às alterações climáticas por vir? Apesar dessas previsões serem pessimistas, o alagamento ainda ocorrerá por vários anos na Amazônia e é de grande importância compreender os efeitos do alagamento sobre as respostas fisiológicas das plantas num contexto das mudanças climáticas. Os principais efeitos sobre a sinalização metabólica e hormonal durante o alagamento são revisados e os possíveis efeitos que as mudanças climáticas poderão ter sobre as plantas amazônicas são discutidos. As informações existentes sugerem que sob alagamento, as plantas tendem a mobilizar reservas para suprir a demanda de carbono necessário para a manutenção do metabolismo sob o estresse da falta de oxigênio. Até certo limite, com o aumento da concentração de CO2, as plantas tendem a fazer mais fotossíntese e a produzir mais biomassa, que poderão aumentar ainda mais com um acréscimo de temperatura de até 3 °C. Alternativamente, com o alagamento, há uma diminuição geral do potencial de crescimento e é possível que quando em condições de CO2 e temperatura elevados os efeitos positivo e negativo se somem. Com isso, as respostas fisiológicas poderão ser amenizadas ou, ainda, promover maior crescimento para a maioria das espécies de regiões alagáveis até o meio do século. Porém, quando a temperatura e o CO2 atingirem valores acima dos ótimos para a maioria das plantas, estas possivelmente diminuirão a atividade fisiológica.

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The study of life history variation is central to the evolutionary theory. In many ectothermic lineages, including lizards, life history traits are plastic and relate to several sources of variation including body size, which is both a factor and a life history trait likely to modulate reproductive parameters. Larger species within a lineage, for example tend to be more fecund and have larger clutch size, but clutch size may also be influenced by climate, independently of body size. Thus, the study of climatic effects on lizard fecundity is mandatory on the current scenario of global climatic change. We asked how body and clutch size have responded to climate through time in a group of tropical lizards, the Tropidurinae, and how these two variables relate to each other. We used both traditional and phylogenetic comparative methods. Body and clutch size are variable within Tropidurinae, and both traits are influenced by phylogenetic position. Across the lineage, species which evolved larger size produce more eggs and neither trait is influenced by temperature components. A climatic component of precipitation, however, relates to larger female body size, and therefore seems to exert an indirect relationship on clutch size. This effect of precipitation on body size is likely a correlate of primary production. A decrease in fecundity is expected for Tropidurinae species on continental landmasses, which are predicted to undergo a decrease in summer rainfall.

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Northeastern Brazil represents a strategic area in terms of Quaternary records of environmental changes in South America due to its distinct semi-arid climate in near equatorial latitudes. In this study, carbon isotope and charcoal distribution records in soils are used to characterize vegetation dynamics, forest fires and their relation to climate change since the Late Pleistocene in the States of Ceara, Piaui and Paraiba, Northeastern Brazil. At the Ceara site, the carbon isotope record showed an enrichment trend from -24%(o) to 19%(o) during the early-mid Holocene, indicating an opening of vegetation and expansion of savanna vegetation (C(4) plants) during this period. A trend toward more depleted delta(13)C values (similar to-32%.) in the late Holocene indicates an expansion of forest vegetation (C(3) plants). A similar trend is observed at the Piaui and Paraiba sites where values of similar to-24%0 are associated with open forest vegetation during the late Pleistocene. In the early-mid Holocene, delta(13)C values of up to -18.0%(o), suggest the expansion of C4 plants. Based on the carbon isotope data, it is postulated that from similar to 18,000 cal yr B.P. to similar to 11,800 cal yr B.P.-similar to 10,000 cal yr B.P. arboreal vegetation was dominant in northeastern Brazil and is associated with humid climates. The savanna expanded from similar to 10,000 cal yr B.P. to similar to 4500-3200 cal yr B.P. due to a less humid/drier climatic phase, also supported by the significant presence of fires (charcoal fragments in the soil). From approximately 3200-2000 cal yr B.P. to the present, carbon isotope records suggest forest expansion and a more humid phase. These results form part of a regional pattern since they are in agreement with paleovegetation records obtained in regions of Maranhao, northeastern Brazil and in the Amazon and Rondonia States, northern Brazil. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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During the past 40 years colluvial and alluvial deposits have been used in Brazil as good indicators of regional landscape sensitivity to Quaternary environmental changes. In spite of the low resolution of most of the continental sedimentary record, geomorphology and sedimentology may favor palaeoenvironmental interpretation when supported by independent proxy data. This paper presents results obtained from pedostratigraphic sequences, in near-valley head sites of southern Brazilian highlands, based on geomorphologic. sedimentologic, micromorphologic, isotopic and palynologic data. Results point to environmental changes, with ages that coincide with Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) 5b; 3; 2 and 1. During the late Pleistocene, although under temperatures and precipitation lower than today, the local record points to relatively wet local environments, where shallow soil-water saturated zones contributed to erosion and sedimentation during periods of climatic change, as during the transition between MIS 2 and MIS 1. Late Pleistocene events with ages that coincide with the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas are also depicted. During the mid Holocene, slope-wash deposits suggest a climate drier than today, probably under the influence of seasonally contrasted precipitation regimes. The predominance of overland flow-related sedimentary deposits suggests an excess of precipitation over evaporation that influenced local palaeohydrology. This environmental condition seems to be recurrent and explains how slope morphology had influenced pedogenesis and sedimentation in the study area. Due to relative sensitiveness, resilience and short source-to-sink sedimentary pathways, near-valley head sites deserve further attention in Quaternary studies in the humid tropics. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.A. All rights reserved.

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Background Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. Methods We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Results Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >= 65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In Sao Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Conclusions Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in So Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.

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We have used coalescent analysis of mtDNA cytochrome b (cyt b) sequences to estimate times of divergence of three species of Alouatta-A. caraya, A. belzebul, and A. guariba-which are in close geographic proximity. A. caraya is inferred to have diverged from the A. guariba/A. belzebul clade approximately 3.83 million years ago (MYA), with the later pair diverging approximately 1.55 MYA. These dates are much more recent than previous dates based on molecular-clock methods. In addition, analyses of new sequences from the Atlantic Coastal Forest species A. guariba indicate the presence of two distinct haplogroups corresponding to northern and southern populations with both haplogroups occurring in sympatry within Sao Paulo state. The time of divergence of these two haplogroups is estimated to be 1.2 MYA and so follows quite closely after the divergence of A. guariba and A. belzebul. These more recent dates point to the importance of Pleistocene environmental events as important factors in the diversification of A. belzebul and A. guariba. We discuss the diversification of the three Alouatta species in the context of recent models of climatic change and with regard to recent molecular phylogeographic analyses of other animal groups distributed in Brazil.