Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Cladistic analysis of the suborder Conulariina Miller and Gurley, 1896 (Cnidaria, Scyphozoa; Vendian-Triassic)

Results of a cladistic analysis of the suborder Conulariina Miller and Gurley, 1896, a major extinct (Vendian-Triassic) group of scyphozoan cnidarians, are presented. The analysis sought to test whether the three conulariid subfamilies (Conulariinae Walcott, 1886, Paraconulariinae Sinclair, 1952 and Ctenoconulariinae Sinclair, 1952) recognized in the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology ( TIP) are monophyletic. A total of 17 morphological characters were scored for 16 ingroup taxa, namely the genera Archaeoconularia, Baccaconularia, Climacoconus, Conularia, Conulariella, Conularina, Ctenoconularia, Eoconularia, Glyptoconularia, Metaconularia, Notoconularia, Paraconularia, Pseudoconularia, Reticulaconularia, Teresconularia and Vendoconularia. The extant medusozoan taxa Cubozoa, Stauromedusae, Coronatae and Semaeostomeae served as outgroups. Unweighted analysisof the data matrix yielded 1057 trees, and successive weighting analysis resulted in one of the 1057 original trees. The ingroup is monophyletic with two autapomorphies: (1) the quadrate geometry of the oral region; and (2) the presence of a mineralized (phosphatic) periderm. Within the ingroup, the clade (Vendoconularia, Teresconularia, Conularina, Eoconularia) is supported by the sinusoidal longitudinal geometry of the transverse ridges, and the much larger clade (Baccaconularia, Glyptoconularia, Metaconularia, Pseudoconularia, Conularia, Ctenoconularia, Archaeoconularia, Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia) is supported by the presence of external tubercles, which, however, were lost in the clade (Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia). As proposed by Van Iten et al. (2000), the clade (Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia) is supported by the termination and alternation of the transverse ribs in the corner sulcus. The previously recognized subfamilies Conulariinae, Paraconulariinae and Ctenoconulariinae were not recovered from this analysis. The diagnostic features of Conulariinae (continuation of the transverse ornament across the corner sulcus and lack of carinae) and Ctenoconulariinae ( presence of carinae) are symplesiomorphic or homoplastic, and Paraconulariinae is polyphyletic. The families Conulariellidae Kiderlen, 1937 and Conulariopsidae Sugiyama, 1942, also recognized in the TIP, are monogeneric, and since they provide no additional phylogenetic information, should be abandoned.