Assessing influence in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates

Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

Cross-national epidemiology of DSM-IV major depressive episode

Background: Major depression is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet epidemiologic data are not available for many countries, particularly low- to middle-income countries. In this paper, we present data on the prevalence, impairment and demographic correlates of depression from 18 high and low-to middle-income countries in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods: Major depressive episodes (MDE) as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DMS-IV) were evaluated in face-to-face interviews using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Data from 18 countries were analyzed in this report (n = 89,037). All countries surveyed representative, population-based samples of adults. Results: The average lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV MDE were 14.6% and 5.5% in the ten high-income and 11.1% and 5.9% in the eight low- to middle-income countries. The average age of onset ascertained retrospectively was 25.7 in the high-income and 24.0 in low- to middle-income countries. Functional impairment was associated with recency of MDE. The female: male ratio was about 2: 1. In high-income countries, younger age was associated with higher 12-month prevalence; by contrast, in several low-to middle-income countries, older age was associated with greater likelihood of MDE. The strongest demographic correlate in high-income countries was being separated from a partner, and in low- to middle-income countries, was being divorced or widowed. Conclusions: MDE is a significant public-health concern across all regions of the world and is strongly linked to social conditions. Future research is needed to investigate the combination of demographic risk factors that are most strongly associated with MDE in the specific countries included in the WMH.

Cross-National Analysis of the Associations between Traumatic Events and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background: Community and clinical data have suggested there is an association between trauma exposure and suicidal behavior (i.e., suicide ideation, plans and attempts). However, few studies have assessed which traumas are uniquely predictive of: the first onset of suicidal behavior, the progression from suicide ideation to plans and attempts, or the persistence of each form of suicidal behavior over time. Moreover, few data are available on such associations in developing countries. The current study addresses each of these issues. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data on trauma exposure and subsequent first onset of suicidal behavior were collected via structured interviews conducted in the households of 102,245 (age 18+) respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Bivariate and multivariate survival models tested the relationship between the type and number of traumatic events and subsequent suicidal behavior. A range of traumatic events are associated with suicidal behavior, with sexual and interpersonal violence consistently showing the strongest effects. There is a dose-response relationship between the number of traumatic events and suicide ideation/attempt; however, there is decay in the strength of the association with more events. Although a range of traumatic events are associated with the onset of suicide ideation, fewer events predict which people with suicide ideation progress to suicide plan and attempt, or the persistence of suicidal behavior over time. Associations generally are consistent across high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides more detailed information than previously available on the relationship between traumatic events and suicidal behavior and indicates that this association is fairly consistent across developed and developing countries. These data reinforce the importance of psychological trauma as a major public health problem, and highlight the significance of screening for the presence and accumulation of traumatic exposures as a risk factor for suicide ideation and attempt.

Cross-National Analysis of the Associations among Mental Disorders and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Mental disorders are among the strongest predictors of suicide; however, little is known about which disorders are uniquely predictive of suicidal behavior, the extent to which disorders predict suicide attempts beyond their association with suicidal thoughts, and whether these associations are similar across developed and developing countries. This study was designed to test each of these questions with a focus on nonfatal suicide attempts. Methods and Findings: Data on the lifetime presence and age-of-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders and nonfatal suicidal behaviors were collected via structured face-to-face interviews with 108,664 respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. The results show that each lifetime disorder examined significantly predicts the subsequent first onset of suicide attempt (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.9-8.9). After controlling for comorbidity, these associations decreased substantially (ORs = 1.5-5.6) but remained significant in most cases. Overall, mental disorders were equally predictive in developed and developing countries, with a key difference being that the strongest predictors of suicide attempts in developed countries were mood disorders, whereas in developing countries impulse-control, substance use, and post-traumatic stress disorders were most predictive. Disaggregation of the associations between mental disorders and nonfatal suicide attempts showed that these associations are largely due to disorders predicting the onset of suicidal thoughts rather than predicting progression from thoughts to attempts. In the few instances where mental disorders predicted the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts, the significant disorders are characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control. The limitations of this study include the use of retrospective self-reports of lifetime occurrence and age-of-onset of mental disorders and suicidal behaviors, as well as the narrow focus on mental disorders as predictors of nonfatal suicidal behaviors, each of which must be addressed in future studies. Conclusions: This study found that a wide range of mental disorders increased the odds of experiencing suicide ideation. However, after controlling for psychiatric comorbidity, only disorders characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control predict which people with suicide ideation act on such thoughts. These findings provide a more fine-grained understanding of the associations between mental disorders and subsequent suicidal behavior than previously available and indicate that mental disorders predict suicidal behaviors similarly in both developed and developing countries. Future research is needed to delineate the mechanisms through which people come to think about suicide and subsequently progress from ideation to attempts.

Determination of the spin of new resonances in electroweak gauge boson pair production at the LHC

The appearance of spin-1 resonances associated with the electroweak symmetry breaking sector is expected in many extensions of the standard model. We analyze the CERN Large Hadron Collider potential to probe the spin of possible new charged and neutral vector resonances through the purely leptonic processes pp -> Z' -> l(+) l'(-) E(T), and pp -> W' -> l'(+/-) l(+) l(-) E(T), with l, l' = e or mu. We perform a model-independent analysis and demonstrate that the spin of the new states can be determined with 99% C. L. in a large fraction of the parameter space where these resonances can be observed with 100 fb(-1). We show that the best sensitivity to the spin is obtained by directly studying correlations between the final state leptons, without the need of reconstructing the events in their center-of-mass frames.

A note on the likelihood and moments of the skew-normal distribution

In this paper an alternative approach to the one in Henze (1986) is proposed for deriving the odd moments of the skew-normal distribution considered in Azzalini (1985). The approach is based on a Pascal type triangle, which seems to greatly simplify moments computation. Moreover, it is shown that the likelihood equation for estimating the asymmetry parameter in such model is generated as orthogonal functions to the sample vector. As a consequence, conditions for a unique solution of the likelihood equation are established, which seem to hold in more general setting.

Land planarians (Platyhelminthes) as a model organism for fine-scale phylogeographic studies: understanding patterns of biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the richest biodiversity hotspots of the world. Paleoclimatic models have predicted two large stability regions in its northern and central parts, whereas southern regions might have suffered strong instability during Pleistocene glaciations. Molecular phylogeographic and endemism studies show, nevertheless, contradictory results: although some results validate these predictions, other data suggest that paleoclimatic models fail to predict stable rainforest areas in the south. Most studies, however, have surveyed species with relatively high dispersal rates whereas taxa with lower dispersion capabilities should be better predictors of habitat stability. Here, we have used two land planarian species as model organisms to analyse the patterns and levels of nucleotide diversity on a locality within the Southern Atlantic Forest. We find that both species harbour high levels of genetic variability without exhibiting the molecular footprint of recent colonization or population expansions, suggesting a long-term stability scenario. The results reflect, therefore, that paleoclimatic models may fail to detect refugia in the Southern Atlantic Forest, and that model organisms with low dispersal capability can improve the resolution of these models.

DESIGN OF CONCRETE PLATFORMS OFFSHORE USING THE THREE-LAYER SHELL THEORY

The concrete offshore platforms, which are subjected a several loading combinations and, thus, requires an analysis more generic possible, can be designed using the concepts adopted to shell elements, but the resistance must be verify in particular cross-sections to shear forces. This work about design of shell elements will be make using the three-layer shell theory. The elements are subject to combined loading of membrane and plate, totalizing eight components of internal forces, which are three membrane forces, three moments (two out-of-plane bending moments and one in-plane, or torsion, moment) and two shear forces. The design method adopted, utilizing the iterative process proposed by Lourenco & Figueiras (1993) obtained from equations of equilibrium developed by Gupta (1896) , will be compared to results of experimentally tested shell elements found in the literature using the program DIANA.

High Carbon Ferro-chromium Production by Self-reducing Process: Effects of Fe-Si and Fluxing Agent Additions

The technology of self-reducing pellets for ferro-alloys production is becoming an emerging process due to the lower electric energy consumption and the improvement of metal recovery in comparison with the traditional process. This paper presents the effects of reduction temperature, addition of ferro-silicon and addition of slag forming agents for the production of high carbon ferro-chromium by utilization of self-reducing pellets. These pellets were composed of Brazilian chromium ore (chromite) concentrate, petroleum coke, Portland cement, ferro-silicon and slag forming components (silica and hydrated lime). The pellets were processed at 1 773 K, 1 823 K and 1 873 K using an induction furnace. The products obtained, containing slag and metallic phases, were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy and chemical analyses (XEDS). A large effect on the reduction time was observed by increasing the temperature from 1 773 K to 1 823 K for pellets without Fe-Si addition: around 4 times faster at 1 823 K than at 1 773 K for reaction fraction close to one. However, when the temperature was further increased from 1 823 K to 1 873 K the kinetics improved by double. At 1 773 K, the addition of 2% of ferro-silicon in the pellet resulted in an increasing reaction rate of around 6 times, in comparison with agglomerate without it. The addition of fluxing agents (silica and lime), which form initial slag before the reduction is completed, impaired the full reduction. These pellets became less porous after the reduction process.

Study on Iron Formation During the Carbothermic Reduction of Iron Ore in Carbon Composite Pellets in the Temperature Range 1423 K-1623 K

The aim of this work is to study the reaction rate and the morphology of the intermediary reaction products during reduction of iron ore, when iron ore and carbonaceous material are agglomerated together as a carbon composite iron ore pellet. The reaction was performed at high temperatures, and in order to avoid heat transfer constraints small size samples were used. The carbonaceous materials employed were coke breeze and pure graphite. Portland cement was employed as a binder, and the pellets diameter was 5.2 mm. The experimental technique involved the measurement of the pellets weight loss, as well as interruption of the reaction at different stages in order to submit the partially reduced pellet to scanning electron microscopy. It has been observed that above 1523 K there is the formation of liquid slag inside the pellets, which partially dissolves iron oxides. The apparent activation energies obtained were 255 kJ/mol for coke breeze containing pellets, and 230 kJ/mol for those pellets containing graphite. It was possible to avoid heat transfer control of the reaction rate up to 1523 K by employing small composite pellets.

High Carbon Ferro-Chromium by Self-Reducing Process

This paper discusses the effects of temperature, addition of ferro-silicon and fluxing agents for the production of high carbon ferro-chromium by self-reducing process. The use of self-reducing agglomerates for ferro-alloys production is becoming an emerging processing technology due to lowering the electric energy consumption and improving the metal recovery in comparison with traditional ones. The self-reducing pellets were composed by chromite, petroleum coke, cement and small (0.1% - 2%) addition of ferro-silicon. The slag composition was adjusted by addition of fluxing agents. The reduction of pellets was carried out at 1773K (1500 degrees C), 1823K (1550 degrees C) and 1873K (1600 degrees C) by using induction furnace. The products obtained, containing slag and metallic phases, were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy and chemical analyses (XEDS). By increasing temperature from 1773K to 1823K large effect on the reduction time was observed. It decreased from 30 minutes to 10 minutes, for reaching around 0.98 reduction fraction. No significant effect on reduction time was observed when the reduction temperature was increased from 1823K to 1873K. At 1773K, the addition of 2% of ferro-silicon in the pellet resulted in an increasing reaction rate of around 6 times, in comparison with agglomerate without this addition. The addition of fluxing agents (silica and hydrated lime) has effect on reduction time (inverse relationship) and the pellets become less porous after reduction.

Pellets prepared with mechanically activated iron ore

This work analyses pellets prepared with iron ore that has been mechanically activated by high energy ball milling. Pellet feed iron ore was submitted to high-energy ball milling for 60 minutes, and the resulting material was analysed through measurements of particle size and specific surface area, as well as X-ray diffraction. Pellets were prepared from this material. The pellets were heated at temperatures ranging from 1000 to 1250 degrees C in a muffle furnace, and submitted to the maximum temperature during 10 - 12 minutes. The samples were then tested regarding crushing strength, densification and porosity, and were examined in a scanning electronic microscope. The results were compared to those obtained with similar samples made from non-milled pellet feed. It has been shown that through high-energy ball milling of iron ore it is possible to achieve pellets presenting high densification and compressive strength at firing temperatures lower than the usual ones.

Evaluation of citrus somatic hybrids for tolerance to Phytophthora nicotianae and citrus tristeza virus

Somatic hybridization is a biotechnology tool that can be used in citrus breeding programs to produce somatic hybrids with the complete genetic combination of both parents. The goal of this work was to test the reaction of citrus somatic hybrids that may be useful as rootstocks to trunk and root infections caused by Phytophthora nicotianae van Breda de Haan (P parasitica Dastur) and to citrus tristeza virus (CTV). The somatic hybrids evaluated were `Caipira` sweet orange (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck) + `Rangpur` lime (C. limonia Osbeck), `Caipira` sweet orange + `Cleopatra` mandarin (C. reshni hort. ex Tanaka), `Caipira` sweet orange + `Volkamer` lemon (C. volkameriana V Ten. & Pasq.), `Caipira` sweet orange + rough lemon (C. jambhiri Lush.), `Cleopatra` mandarin + `Volkamer` lemon, `Cleopatra` mandarin + sour orange (C. aurantium L.), `Rangpur` lime + `Sunki` mandarin (C. sunki (Hayata) hort. ex Tanaka), `Ruby Blood` sweet orange (C. sinensis L. Osbeck) + `Volkamer` lemon, `Rohde Red` sweet orange (C. sinensis L. Osbeck) + `Volkamer` lemon, and `Valencia` sweet orange + Fortunella obovata hort. ex Tanaka. For P. nicotianae trunk and root infection assays, plants of the somatic hybrids, obtained from 9-month semi-hardwood cuttings, were evaluated and compared with diploid citrus rootstock cultivars after mycelia inoculation in the trunk or spore infestation in the substrate, respectively. `Cleopatra` mandarin + sour orange, `Rangpur` lime + `Sunki` mandarin, `Cleopatra` mandarin + `Volkamer` lemon, `Ruby Blood` sweet orange + `Volkamer` lemon, `Rohde Red` sweet orange + `Volkamer` lemon, and `Caipira` sweet orange + `Volkamer` lemon had less trunk rot occurrence, whereas the somatic hybrids `Cleopatra` mandarin + `Volkamer` lemon, `Cleopatra` mandarin + sour orange, `Caipira` sweet orange + `Volkamer` lemon, and `Caipira` sweet orange + `Rangpur` lime were tolerant to root rot. For CTV assays, plants of the somatic hybrids along with tolerant and intolerant rootstocks were budded with a mild strain CTV-infected or healthy `Valencia` sweet orange budwood. Differences in average scion shoot length indicated that the hybrids `Cleopatra` mandarin + sour orange and `Valencia` sweet orange + Fortunella obovata were intolerant to CTV (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EULAR/PRINTO/PRES criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura, childhood polyarteritis nodosa, childhood Wegener granulomatosis and childhood Takayasu arteritis: Ankara 2008. Part II: Final classification criteria

Objectives To validate the previously proposed classification criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP), childhood polyarteritis nodosa (c-PAN), c-Wegener granulomatosis (c-WG) and c-Takayasu arteritis (c-TA). Methods Step 1: retrospective/prospective webdata collection for children with HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with age at diagnosis <= 18 years. Step 2: blinded classification by consensus panel of a representative sample of 280 cases. Step 3: statistical (sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve and.-agreement) and nominal group technique consensus evaluations. Results 827 patients with HSP, 150 with c-PAN, 60 with c-WG, 87 with c-TA and 52 with c-other were compared with each other. A patient was classified as HSP in the presence of purpura or petechiae (mandatory) with lower limb predominance plus one of four criteria: (1) abdominal pain; (2) histopathology (IgA); (3) arthritis or arthralgia; (4) renal involvement. Classification of c-PAN required a systemic inflammatory disease with evidence of necrotising vasculitis OR angiographic abnormalities of medium-/small-sized arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) skin involvement; (2) myalgia/muscle tenderness; (3) hypertension; (4) peripheral neuropathy; (5) renal involvement. Classification of c-WG required three of six criteria: (1) histopathological evidence of granulomatous inflammation; (2) upper airway involvement; (3) laryngo-tracheo-bronchial involvement; (4) pulmonary involvement (x-ray/CT); (5) antineutrophilic cytoplasmic antibody positivity; (6) renal involvement. Classification of c-TA required typical angiographic abnormalities of the aorta or its main branches and pulmonary arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) pulse deficit or claudication; (2) blood pressure discrepancy in any limb; (3) bruits; (4) hypertension; (5) elevated acute phase reactant. Conclusion European League Against Rheumatism/Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation/Paediatric Rheumatology European Society propose validated classification criteria for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with high sensitivity/specificity.

Development of Lifetime Comorbidity in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

Context: Although numerous studies have examined the role of latent variables in the structure of comorbidity among mental disorders, none has examined their role in the development of comorbidity. Objective: To study the role of latent variables in the development of comorbidity among 18 lifetime DSM-IV disorders in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys. Design: Nationally or regionally representative community surveys. Setting: Fourteen countries. Participants: A total of 21 229 survey respondents. Main Outcome Measures: First onset of 18 lifetime DSM-IV anxiety, mood, behavior, and substance disorders assessed retrospectively in the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Results: Separate internalizing (anxiety and mood disorders) and externalizing (behavior and substance disorders) factors were found in exploratory factor analysis of lifetime disorders. Consistently significant positive time-lagged associations were found in survival analyses for virtually all temporally primary lifetime disorders predicting subsequent onset of other disorders. Within-domain (ie, internalizing or externalizing) associations were generally stronger than between-domain associations. Most time-lagged associations were explained by a model that assumed the existence of mediating latent internalizing and externalizing variables. Specific phobia and obsessive-compulsive disorder (internalizing) and hyperactivity and oppositional defiant disorders (externalizing) were the most important predictors. A small number of residual associations remained significant after controlling the latent variables. Conclusions: The good fit of the latent variable model suggests that common causal pathways account for most of the comorbidity among the disorders considered herein. These common pathways should be the focus of future research on the development of comorbidity, although several important pairwise associations that cannot be accounted for by latent variables also exist that warrant further focused study.