Framework for Skew-Probit Links in Binary Regression

We review several asymmetrical links for binary regression models and present a unified approach for two skew-probit links proposed in the literature. Moreover, under skew-probit link, conditions for the existence of the ML estimators and the posterior distribution under improper priors are established. The framework proposed here considers two sets of latent variables which are helpful to implement the Bayesian MCMC approach. A simulation study to criteria for models comparison is conducted and two applications are made. Using different Bayesian criteria we show that, for these data sets, the skew-probit links are better than alternative links proposed in the literature.

Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric ICC treats both correct and incorrect answers symmetrically, which results in a logical contradiction in ordering examinees on the ability scale. A data set corresponding to a mathematical test applied in Peruvian public schools is analyzed, where comparisons with other parametric IRT models also are conducted. Several model comparison criteria are discussed and implemented. The main conclusion is that the LPE and RLPE IRT models are easy to implement and seem to provide the best fit to the data set considered.

A Bayesian Semiparametric Approach for Solving the Discrete Calibration Problem

In this article, we introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian approach based on Dirichlet process priors for the discrete calibration problem in binomial regression models. An interesting topic is the dosimetry problem related to the dose-response model. A hierarchical formulation is provided so that a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is developed. The methodology is applied to simulated and real data.

Solvatochromism in Binary Mixtures: First Report on a Solvation Free Energy Relationship between Solvent Exchange Equilibrium Constants and the Properties of the Medium

We have employed UV-vis spectroscopy in order to investigate details of the solvation of six solvatochromic indicators, hereafter designated as ""probes"", namely, 2,6-diphenyl-4-(2,4,6-triphenylpyridinium-1-yl) phenolate (RB); 4-[(E)-2-(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl] phenolate, MePM; 1-methylquinolinium-8-olate, QB; 2-bromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl] phenolate, MePMBr, 2,6-dichloro-4-(2,4,6-triphenylpyridinium-1-yl) phenolate (WB); and 2,6-dibromo-4-[(E)-2-(1-methylpyridinium-4-yl)ethenyl] phenolate, MePMBr,, respectively. These can be divided into three pairs, each includes two probes of similar pK(a) in water and different lipophilicity. Solvation has been studied in binary mixtures, BMs, of water, W, with 12 protic organic solvents, S, including mono- and bifunctional alcohols (2-alkoxyethanoles, unsaturated and chlorinated alcohols). Each medium was treated as a mixture of S, W, and a complex solvent, S-W, formed by hydrogen bonding. Values of lambda(max) (of the probe intramolecular charge transfer) were converted into empirical polarity scales, E(T)(probe) in kcal/mol, whose values were correlated with the effective mole fraction of water in the medium, chi w(effective). This correlation furnished three equilibrium constants for the exchange of solvents in the probe solvation shell; phi(W/S) (W substitutes S): phi(S-W/W) (S-W substitutes W), and phi(S-W/S) (S-W substitutes S), respectively. The values of these constants depend on the physicochemical properties of the probe and the medium. We tested, for the first time, the applicability of a new solvation free energy relationship: phi = constant + a alpha(BM) + b beta(BM) + s(pi*(BM) + d delta) + p log P(BM), where a, b, s, and p are regression coefficients alpha(BM), beta(BM), and pi*(BM) are solvatochromic parameters of the BM, delta is a correction term for pi*, and log P is an empirical scale of lipophilicity. Correlations were carried out with two-, three-, and four-medium descriptors. In all cases, three descriptors gave satisfactory correlations; use of four parameters gave only a marginal increase of the goodness of fit. For phi(W/S), the most important descriptor was found to be the lipophilicity of the medium; for phi(S-W/W) and phi(S-W/S), solvent basicity is either statistically relevant or is the most important descriptor. These responses are different from those of E(T)(probe) of many solvatochromic indicators in pure solvents, where the importance of solvent basicity is usually marginal, and can be neglected.

Breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking patterns related to the prevalence of anterior open bite in primary dentition

OBJECTIVE: Nutritional, immunological and psychological benefts of exclusive breastfeeding for the frst 6 months of life are unequivocally recognized. However, mothers should also be aware of the importance of breastfeeding for promoting adequate oral development. This study evaluated the association between breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking patterns and the prevalence of anterior open bite in primary dentition. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Infant feeding and non-nutritive sucking were investigated in a 3-6 year-old sample of 1,377 children, from São Paulo city, Brazil. Children were grouped according to breastfeeding duration: G1 - non-breastfed, G2 - shorter than 6 months, G3 - interruption between 6 and 12 months, and G4 - longer than 12 months. Three calibrated dentists performed clinical examinations and classifed overbite into 3 categories: normal, anterior open bite and deep bite. Chi-square tests (p<0.05) with odds ratio (OR) calculation were used for intergroup comparisons. The impact of breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking on the prevalence of anterior open bite was analyzed using binary logistic regression. RESULTS: The prevalence estimates of anterior open bite were: 31.9% (G1), 26.1% (G2), 22.1% (G3), and 6.2% (G4). G1 would have signifcantly more chances of having anterior open bite compared with G4; in the total sample (OR=7.1) and in the subgroup without history of non-nutritive sucking (OR=9.3). Prolonging breastfeeding for 12 months was associated with a 3.7 times lower chance of having anterior open bite. In each year of persistence with non-nutritive sucking habits, the chance of developing this malocclusion increased in 2.38 times. CONCLUSIONS: Breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking durations demonstrated opposite effects on the prediction of anterior open bite. Non-breastfed children presented signifcantly greater chances of having anterior open bite compared with those who were breastfed for periods longer than 12 months, demonstrating the benefcial infuence of breastfeeding on dental occlusion.

Bottle feeding, increased overjet and Class 2 primary canine relationship: is there any association?

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between bottle feeding and prevalence rates of increased overjet and Class 2 primary canine relationship. The sample consisted of 911 children (461 boys, 450 girls) aged 3 (13.9%), 4 (40.8%), 5 (34%) and 6 (11.3%) years, with complete primary dentition. Information about nutritive and nonnutritive (pacifier and/or digit) sucking habits was collected through questionnaires. Three calibrated dentists (κ: 0.9-1.0 and Rs > 0.90) performed the clinical assessments. The children were divided into four groups: G1 - not bottle-fed; G2 - exclusively bottle-fed; G3 - breast- and bottle-fed, bottle feeding ceased before 3 years of age; and G4 - breast- and bottle-fed, bottle feeding ceased between 3 and 4 years of age. Associations between nutritive and nonnutritive sucking behaviors and the malocclusions studied were analyzed by multiple binary logistic regression (α= 0.05). The frequencies of increased overjet were: 25.3% (G1), 38.8% (G2), 39.2% (G3) and 47.8% (G4). The percentages of Class 2 canine relationship were: 27.9% (G1), 48.8% (G2), 43.4% (G3) and 43% (G4). No significant effect of bottle feeding was found. The chances of diagnosing increased overjet (O.R. = 4.42, p < 0.001) and Class 2 canine relationship (O.R. = 4.02, p < 0.001) were greater for children with pacifier and/or digit-sucking habits, compared to those without a history of nonnutritive sucking behavior. It may be suggested that bottle feeding alone is not directly associated with higher prevalence rates of increased overjet and Class 2 canine relationship in the primary dentition.

Reproductive behavior, development and eye regression in the cave armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus Reis, 1987 (Siluriformes: Loricariidae), breed in laboratory

The troglobitic armored catfish, Ancistrus cryptophthalmus (Loricariidae, Ancistrinae) is known from four caves in the São Domingos karst area, upper rio Tocantins basin, Central Brazil. These populations differ in general body shape and degree of reduction of eyes and of pigmentation. The small Passa Três population (around 1,000 individuals) presents the most reduced eyes, which are not externally visible in adults. A small group of Passa Três catfish, one male and three females, reproduced spontaneously thrice in laboratory, at the end of summertime in 2000, 2003 and 2004. Herein we describe the reproductive behavior during the 2003 event, as well as the early development of the 2003 and 2004 offsprings, with focus on body growth and ontogenetic regression of eyes. The parental care by the male, which includes defense of the rock shelter where the egg clutch is laid, cleaning and oxygenation of eggs, is typical of many loricariids. On the other hand, the slow development, including delayed eye degeneration, low body growth rates and high estimated longevity (15 years or more) are characteristic of precocial, or K-selected, life cycles. In the absence of comparable data for close epigean relatives (Ancistrus spp.), it is not possible to establish whether these features are an autapomorphic specialization of the troglobitic A. cryptophthalmus or a plesiomorphic trait already present in the epigean ancestor, possibly favoring the adoption of the life in the food-poor cave environment. We briefly discuss the current hypotheses on eye regression in troglobitic vertebrates.

Pulsar binary systems in a nonsymmetric theory of gravitation II. Dipole radiation

This paper deals with the emission of gravitational radiation in the context of a previously studied metric nonsymmetric theory of gravitation. The part coming from the symmetric part of the metric coincides with the mass quadrupole moment result of general relativity. The one associated to the antisymmetric part of the metric involves the dipole moment of the fermionic charge of the system. The results are applied to binary star systems and the decrease of the period of the elliptical motion is calculated.

Hipertensão arterial referida e indicadores antropométricos de gordura em idosos

OBJETIVO: Investigar a associação entre hipertensão arterial referida (HAr) e indicadores antropométricos de gordura, corporal e abdominal em idosos do município de São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Os dados de 1894 idosos foram baseados na pesquisa Saúde, Bem-Estar e Envelhecimento - SABE, 2000. Os indicadores antropométricos utilizados foram: Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC), perímetro da cintura (PC), razão cintura/quadril (RCQ) e razão cintura/estatura (RCE). Utilizou-se regressão logística binária, estratificada por sexo. RESULTADOS: A hipertensão arterial associou-se aos indicadores antropométricos. No modelo final (ajustado para idade, escolaridade, tabagismo, atividade física e diabetes), em ambos os sexos, o IMC apresentou maior força estatística, apesar de, nas mulheres, apresentar-se similar aos outros indicadores. À exceção da RCE, em homens, a HAr associou-se, positiva e independentemente, aos outros indicadores. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados sugerem a relevância desses indicadores, para, precocemente, detectar os riscos para o desenvolvimento dessa doença e intervir na sua prevenção e controle.

Retardo estatural em menores de cinco anos: um estudo "baseline"

OBJETIVO: Descrever a prevalência e analisar fatores associados ao retardo estatural em menores de cinco anos. MÉTODOS: Estudo “baseline”, que analisou 2.040 menores de cinco anos, verificando possíveis associações entre o retardo estatural (índice altura/idade ≤ 2 escores Z) e variáveis hierarquizadas em seis blocos: socioeconômicas, do domicílio, do saneamento, maternas, biológicas e de acesso aos serviços de saúde. A análise multivariada foi realizada por regressão de Poisson, com opção de erro padrão robusto, obtendo-se as razões de prevalência ajustadas, com IC 95por cento e respectivos valores de significância. RESULTADOS: Entre as variáveis não dicotômicas, houve associação positiva com tipo de teto e número de moradores por cômodo e associação negativa com renda, escolaridade da mãe e peso ao nascer. A análise ajustada indicou ainda como variáveis significantes: abastecimento de água, visita do agente comunitário de saúde, local do parto, internação por diarréia e internação por pneumonia. CONCLUSÃO: Os fatores identificados como de risco para o retardo estatural configuram a multicausalidade do problema, implicando na necessidade de intervenções multisetoriais e multiníveis para o seu controle

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co) variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model.

First stars XI. Chemical composition of the extremely metal-poor dwarfs in the binary CS 22876-032

Context. Unevolved metal-poor stars constitute a fossil record of the early Galaxy, and can provide invaluable information on the properties of the first generations of stars. Binary systems also provide direct information on the stellar masses of their member stars. Aims. The purpose of this investigation is a detailed abundance study of the double-lined spectroscopic binary CS 22876-032, which comprises the two most metal-poor dwarfs known. Methods. We used high-resolution, high-S/N ratio spectra from the UVES spectrograph at the ESO VLT telescope. Long-term radial-velocity measurements and broad-band photometry allowed us to determine improved orbital elements and stellar parameters for both components. We used OSMARCS 1D models and the TURBOSPECTRUM spectral synthesis code to determine the abundances of Li, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co and Ni. We also used the (COBOLD)-B-5 model atmosphere code to compute the 3D abundance corrections, notably for Li and O. Results. We find a metallicity of [Fe/H] similar to -3.6 for both stars, using 1D models with 3D corrections of similar to -0.1 dex from averaged 3D models. We determine the oxygen abundance from the near-UV OH bands; the 3D corrections are large, -1 and -1.5 dex for the secondary and primary respectively, and yield [O/Fe] similar to 0.8, close to the high-quality results obtained from the [OI] 630 nm line in metal-poor giants. Other [alpha/Fe] ratios are consistent with those measured in other dwarfs and giants with similar [Fe/H], although Ca and Si are somewhat low ([X/Fe] less than or similar to 0). Other element ratios follow those of other halo stars. The Li abundance of the primary star is consistent with the Spite plateau, but the secondary shows a lower abundance; 3D corrections are small. Conclusions. The Li abundance in the primary star supports the extension of the Spite Plateau value at the lowest metallicities, without any decrease. The low abundance in the secondary star could be explained by endogenic Li depletion, due to its cooler temperature. If this is not the case, another, yet unknown mechanism may be causing increased scatter in A( Li) at the lowest metallicities.

A binary engine fuelling HD 87643's complex circumstellar environment Determined using AMBER/VLTI imaging

Context. The star HD 87643, exhibiting the ""B[e] phenomenon"", has one of the most extreme infrared excesses for this object class. It harbours a large amount of both hot and cold dust, and is surrounded by an extended reflection nebula. Aims. One of our major goals was to investigate the presence of a companion in HD87643. In addition, the presence of close dusty material was tested through a combination of multi-wavelength high spatial resolution observations. Methods. We observed HD 87643 with high spatial resolution techniques, using the near-IR AMBER/VLTI interferometer with baselines ranging from 60 m to 130 m and the mid-IR MIDI/VLTI interferometer with baselines ranging from 25 m to 65 m. These observations are complemented by NACO/VLT adaptive-optics-corrected images in the K and L-bands, and ESO-2.2m optical Wide-Field Imager large-scale images in the B, V and R-bands. Results. We report the direct detection of a companion to HD 87643 by means of image synthesis using the AMBER/VLTI instrument. The presence of the companion is confirmed by the MIDI and NACO data, although with a lower confidence. The companion is separated by similar to 34 mas with a roughly north-south orientation. The period must be large (several tens of years) and hence the orbital parameters are not determined yet. Binarity with high eccentricity might be the key to interpreting the extreme characteristics of this system, namely a dusty circumstellar envelope around the primary, a compact dust nebulosity around the binary system and a complex extended nebula suggesting past violent ejections.

The young, tight, and low-mass binary TWA22AB: a new calibrator for evolutionary models? Orbit, spectral types, and temperature

Context. Tight binaries discovered in young, nearby associations are ideal targets for providing dynamical mass measurements to test the physics of evolutionary models at young ages and very low masses. Aims. We report the binarity of TWA22 for the first time. We aim at monitoring the orbit of this young and tight system to determine its total dynamical mass using an accurate distance determination. We also intend to characterize the physical properties (luminosity, effective temperature, and surface gravity) of each component based on near-infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations. Methods. We used the adaptive-optics assisted imager NACO to resolve the components, to monitor the complete orbit and to obtain the relative near-infrared photometry of TWA22 AB. The adaptive-optics assisted integral field spectrometer SINFONI was also used to obtain medium-resolution (R(lambda) = 1500-2000) spectra in JHK bands. Comparison with empirical and synthetic librairies were necessary for deriving the spectral type, the effective temperature, and the surface gravity for each component of the system. Results. Based on an accurate trigonometric distance (17.5 +/- 0.2 pc) determination, we infer a total dynamical mass of 220 +/- 21 M(Jup) for the system. From the complete set of spectra, we find an effective temperature T(eff) = 2900(-200)(+200) K for TWA22A and T(eff) = 2900(-100)(+200) for TWA22 B and surface gravities between 4.0 and 5.5 dex. From our photometry and an M6 +/- 1 spectral type for both components, we find luminosities of log(L/L(circle dot)) = -2.11 +/- 0.13 dex and log(L/L(circle dot)) = -2.30 +/- 0.16 dex for TWA22 A and B, respectively. By comparing these parameters with evolutionary models, we question the age and the multiplicity of this system. We also discuss a possible underestimation of the mass predicted by evolutionary models for young stars close to the substellar boundary.

A VLT/FLAMES survey for massive binaries in Westerlund 1 III. The WC9d binary W239 and implications for massive stellar evolution

Context. There is growing evidence that a treatment of binarity amongst OB stars is essential for a full theory of stellar evolution. However the binary properties of massive stars - frequency, mass ratio & orbital separation - are still poorly constrained. Aims. In order to address this shortcoming we have undertaken a multiepoch spectroscopic study of the stellar population of the young massive cluster Westerlund 1. In this paper we present an investigation into the nature of the dusty Wolf-Rayet star and candidate binary W239. Methods. To accomplish this we have utilised our spectroscopic data in conjunction with multi-year optical and near-IR photometric observations in order to search for binary signatures. Comparison of these data to synthetic non-LTE model atmosphere spectra were used to derive the fundamental properties of the WC9 primary. Results. We found W239 to have an orbital period of only similar to 5.05 days, making it one of the most compact WC binaries yet identified. Analysis of the long term near-IR lightcurve reveals a significant flare between 2004-6. We interpret this as evidence for a third massive stellar component in the system in a long period (> 6 yr), eccentric orbit, with dust production occuring at periastron leading to the flare. The presence of a near-IR excess characteristic of hot (similar to 1300 K) dust at every epoch is consistent with the expectation that the subset of persistent dust forming WC stars are short (< 1 yr) period binaries, although confirmation will require further observations. Non-LTE model atmosphere analysis of the spectrum reveals the physical properties of the WC9 component to be fully consistent with other Galactic examples. Conclusions. The simultaneous presence of both short period Wolf-Rayet binaries and cool hypergiants within Wd 1 provides compelling evidence for a bifurcation in the post-Main Sequence evolution of massive stars due to binarity. Short period O+OB binaries will evolve directly to the Wolf-Rayet phase, either due to an episode of binary mediated mass loss - likely via case A mass transfer or a contact configuration - or via chemically homogenous evolution. Conversely, long period binaries and single stars will instead undergo a red loop across the HR diagram via a cool hypergiant phase. Future analysis of the full spectroscopic dataset for Wd 1 will constrain the proportion of massive stars experiencing each pathway; hence quantifying the importance of binarity in massive stellar evolution up to and beyond supernova and the resultant production of relativistic remnants.