Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

A mechanism for the formation of oxygen and iron bimodal radial distribution in the disc of our Galaxy

Recently, it has been proposed that there are two type Ia supernova progenitors: short-lived and long-lived. On the basis of this idea, we develop a theory of a unified mechanism for the formation of the bimodal radial distribution of iron and oxygen in the Galactic disc. The underlying cause for the formation of the fine structure of the radial abundance pattern is the influence of the spiral arms, specifically the combined effect of the corotation resonance and turbulent diffusion. From our modelling, we conclude that in order to explain the bimodal radial distributions simultaneously for oxygen and iron and to obtain approximately equal total iron output from different types of supernovae, the mean ejected iron mass per supernova event should be the same as quoted in the literature if the maximum mass of stars, which eject heavy elements, is 50 M(circle dot). For the upper mass limit of 70 M(circle dot), the production of iron by a type II supernova explosion should increase by about 1.5 times.

Oscillation for a second-order neutral differential equation with impulses

We consider a certain type of second-order neutral delay differential systems and we establish two results concerning the oscillation of solutions after the system undergoes controlled abrupt perturbations (called impulses). As a matter of fact, some particular non-impulsive cases of the system are oscillatory already. Thus, we are interested in finding adequate impulse controls under which our system remains oscillatory. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sr and Nd isotopic geochemistry of the early ultramafic-mafic rocks of the Mako bimodal volcanic belt of the Kedougou-Kenieba inlier (Senegal)

The Mako bimodal volcanic belt of the Kedougou-Kenieba inlier is composed of volcanic basalts and peridotites interbedded by quartzites and limestones intruded by different generations of granitoids. The early volcanic episode of the belt is constituted of submarine basalts with peridotite similar to those of the oceanic abyssal plains. It is intruded by the Badon Kakadian TTG-granitic batholite dated around 2200 Ma. The second volcanic phase is constituted of basaltic, andesitic, and felsitic flows exhibit structures of aerial volcanic rocks. It is intruded by granites dated between 2160 and 2070 Ma. The general pattern of trace element variation of submarine volcanic rocks is consistent with those of basalts from oceanic plateaus which are the modern equivalent of the Archean greenstones belts. The Nd and Sr isotopic systematics typical of juvenile material indicates that the source of these igneous rocks is derived from a depleted mantle source. These results are consistent with the idea of a major accretion within the West African Craton occurring at about 2.1 Ga and corresponding to an important process of mantle-oceanic lithosphere differentiation.

Bimodal extension based on the skew-normal distribution with application to pollen data

This paper considers an extension to the skew-normal model through the inclusion of an additional parameter which can lead to both uni- and bi-modal distributions. The paper presents various basic properties of this family of distributions and provides a stochastic representation which is useful for obtaining theoretical properties and to simulate from the distribution. Moreover, the singularity of the Fisher information matrix is investigated and maximum likelihood estimation for a random sample with no covariates is considered. The main motivation is thus to avoid using mixtures in fitting bimodal data as these are well known to be complicated to deal with, particularly because of identifiability problems. Data-based illustrations show that such model can be useful. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The log-bimodal-skew-normal model. A geochemical application

The main objective of this paper is to study a logarithm extension of the bimodal skew normal model introduced by Elal-Olivero et al. [1]. The model can then be seen as an alternative to the log-normal model typically used for fitting positive data. We study some basic properties such as the distribution function and moments, and discuss maximum likelihood for parameter estimation. We report results of an application to a real data set related to nickel concentration in soil samples. Model fitting comparison with several alternative models indicates that the model proposed presents the best fit and so it can be quite useful in real applications for chemical data on substance concentration. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fibonacci bimodal maps

We introduce the Fibonacci bimodal maps on the interval and show that their two turning points are both in the same minimal invariant Cantor set. Two of these maps with the same orientation have the same kneading sequences and, among bimodal maps without central returns, they exhibit turning points with the strongest recurrence as possible.